Maryland was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 12.98% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all twelve news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. The last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election was Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988. As of the 2024 election, this is the last time a Republican presidential candidate won more than 40% of the vote in Maryland, the first time a Republican presidential candidate received more than a million votes in Maryland, and the last time a Democratic presidential nominee has failed to both break 60% of the vote and win by more than a 25% margin in Maryland. At the time, Bush's 1,024,703 votes were the most received by a Republican presidential candidate in the state's history, and would remain so until Donald Trump exceeded this figure in 2024.[1]
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]
Source
Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Solid D
Cook Political Report
Likely D
Research 2000
Solid D
Zogby International
Likely D
Washington Post
Likely D
Washington Dispatch
Likely D
Washington Times
Solid D
The New York Times
Solid D
CNN
Likely D
Newsweek
Solid D
Associated Press
Solid D
Rasmussen Reports
Likely D
Polling
Kerry won every pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 52% to 42%.[3]
Fundraising
Bush raised $4,174,964.[4] Kerry raised $7,553,542, which was 4% of the total money raised by Kerry in 2004.[5]
Advertising and visits
Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[6][7]
Analysis
Bush did win most of the counties in Maryland, but he lost the central part of the state (Washington DC suburbs and Baltimore), where most of the population is. The middle section is very urban and includes a large number of African Americans, many of whom are affluent (specifically in the Democratic stronghold of Prince George's County). Bush dominated Western Maryland and the state's Eastern Shore, which are very rural, but he carried only two congressional districts (see below). However, Kerry's margin of victory was slightly less than in 2000, when Gore won by 16.39%.[8] This also marks the first time since 1880 in which Maryland gave a majority of its vote to a candidate that lost both the popular and electoral vote. This was the first time since 1980 that the state voted for the popular vote loser.[9]
Results
2004 United States presidential election in Maryland
Technically the voters of Maryland cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Maryland is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:[13]
