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2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
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147 delegates (125 pledged, 22 unpledged)
to the Democratic National Convention
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
 
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Home state Delaware Vermont
Delegate count 73 52
Popular vote 840,360 576,926
Percentage 52.93% 36.34%
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The 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary took place on March 10, 2020, as one of several states voting the week after Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Michigan primary was an open primary,[1] with the state awarding 147 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 125 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

Former vice president Joe Biden decisively won the primary and every county in the state, getting almost 53% of the vote and 73 delegates. Senator Bernie Sanders received around 36% of the vote and 52 delegates, marking a clear regression in support for him from 2016, when he edged out Hillary Clinton by 1.42% and won 73 of the state's 83 counties.[2] Biden's victory was powered by support from African Americans, older voters, working class voters, and moderate voters.[3]

Despite losing every county and almost all municipalities, Sanders was still able to win some of the major cities in the state including: Ann Arbor, Dearborn, Grand Rapids, Lansing and Kalamazoo.[4]

Procedure

Michigan was one of six states (along with Democrats Abroad) which held primaries on March 10, 2020, one week after Super Tuesday.[5] Voting took place throughout the state from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. local time. In the open primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 125 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 4 and 9[6] were allocated to each of the state's 14 congressional districts and another 16 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 27 at-large delegates.[7] The March primary as part of Stage I on the primary timetable received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on a March date.[8]

After district conventions on May 16, 2020, during which district-level delegates were selected, the state central committee meeting subsequently was held on June 13, 2020, to vote on the 27 at-large and 16 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention. The delegation also included 22 unpledged PLEO delegates: 12 members of the Democratic National Committee, 9 members of Congress (both senators and 7 representatives), and the governor Gretchen Whitmer.[7]

Pledged national
convention delegates
Type Del. Type Del.
CD1 5 CD8 6
CD2 5 CD9 7
CD3 5 CD10 4
CD4 4 CD11 7
CD5 6 CD12 7
CD6 5 CD13 7
CD7 5 CD14 9
PLEO 27 At-large 16
Total pledged delegates 125

Candidates

The following people have been included on the list issued by the Michigan Secretary of State for the presidential primary.[9]

Running

Withdrawn

There was also an uncommitted option on the ballot.[10]

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Joe
Biden 		Bernie
Sanders 		Tulsi
Gabbard 		Other/
Undecided[e]
270 to Win[11] Mar 10, 2020 Mar 4–9, 2020 57.0% 32.3% 1.3% 9.4%
RealClear Politics[12] Mar 10, 2020 Mar 4–9, 2020 55.7% 33.3% 1.3% 9.7%
FiveThirtyEight[13] Mar 10, 2020 until Mar 9, 2020[f] 55.3% 31.9% 1.2% 11.6%
Average 56.0% 32.5% 1.3% 10.2%
Michigan primary results (March 10, 2020) 52.9% 36.4% 0.6% 10.1%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden 		Michael
Bloomberg 		Cory
Booker 		Pete
Buttigieg 		Kamala
Harris 		Amy
Klobuchar 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Bernie
Sanders 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Andrew
Yang 		Other Undecided
Swayable[14] Mar 9, 2020 3,126 (LV) ± 3.0% 62% – – – – – – 28% – – 10%[h] –
AtlasIntel[15] Mar 7–9, 2020 528 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 3% – – – – – 40% 1% – 3%[i] 5%
Data for Progress[16] Mar 7–9, 2020 320 (LV) ± 5.5% 59% – – – – – – 38% – – 2%[j] –
Mitchell Research & Communications[17] Mar 8, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 1% – 1% – 1% – 33% 3% – 3%[k] 5%
Target Insyght[18] Mar 8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 65% 2% – – – 1% – 24% 3% – 3%[l] 1%
Concord Public Opinion Partners/
The Welcome Party[19] 		Mar 7–8, 2020 305 (LV) – 54% – – – – – – 23% – – 1%[m] 22%
YouGov/Yahoo News[20] Mar 6–8, 2020 –(RV)[n] ± 5.8% 54% – – – – – – 42% – – – –
Monmouth University[21] Mar 5–8, 2020 411 (LV) ± 4.8% 51% 3% – <1% – <1% – 36% 1% – 7%[o] 2%
ROI Rocket[22] Mar 4–8, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 55% – – – – – – 45% – – – –
The Progress Campaign (D)[23][1] Mar 3–7, 2020 417 (RV) ± 4.7% 51% – – – – – – 44% – – 1% 4%[p]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[24] Mar 4–6, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% – – – – – – 27% – – 9%[q] 13%[r]
Mar 5, 2020 Warren withdraws from the race
Mar 4, 2020 Bloomberg withdraws from the race
Mar 2, 2020 Klobuchar withdraws from the race
Mar 1, 2020 Buttigieg withdraws from the race
GlenGariff Group Inc./Detroit News/WDIV-TV[25] Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 29% 11% – 6% – 3% – 23% 7% – 6%[s] 16%
Feb 29, 2020 South Carolina primary; Steyer withdraws from the race after close of polls
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison[26] Feb 11–20, 2020 662 (LV) – 16% 13% – 11% – 8% – 25% 13% – – 14%[t]
Feb 11, 2020 New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland
University/Ohio Northern University[27] 		Jan 8–20, 2020 477 (RV) – 27% 9.1% – 6.3% – 1.9% – 21.6% 13.6% 3.5% 5.3%[u] 10.6%
Jan 13, 2020 Booker withdraws from the race
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
Nov 24, 2019 Bloomberg announces his candidacy
Emerson College[28] Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 454 ± 4.6% 34% – 3% 8% 3% 0% – 28% 19% 2% 3%[v] –
Nov 1, 2019 O'Rourke withdraws from the race
Siena Research/New York Times[29] Oct 13–26, 2019 203 – 30% – 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% 17% 21% 1% 1%[w] 23%
Kaiser Family Foundation[30] Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 208 (LV) – 19% – 1% 7% 2% 1% 1% 15% 25% 1% 0%[x] 27%
Denno Research[31] Sep 21–24, 2019 217 – 27% – 1% 4% 4% 1% 1% 12% 23% 1% 4%[y] 23%[z]
Climate Nexus[32] Jul 14–17, 2019 324 (LV) – 35% – 2% 4% 8% 1% 1% 16% 14% 1% 2%[aa] 13%[ab]
Zogby Analytics[33] May 23–29, 2019 268 ± 6.0% 27% – 1% 9% 7% 1% 4% 18% 8% 2% 5%[ac] –
Denno Research[34] May 8–10, 2019 235 – 37% – 3% 5% 4% 1% 1% 16% 9% 0% 4%[ad] 23%
Apr 25, 2019 Biden announces his candidacy
Apr 14, 2019 Buttigieg announces his candidacy
Mar 14, 2019 O'Rourke announces his candidacy
Emerson College[35] Mar 7–10, 2019 317 ± 5.5% 40% – 3% 0% 12% 5% 2% 23% 11% – 4%[ae] –

Results

Results by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary[36]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[37]
Joe Biden 840,360 52.93 73
Bernie Sanders 576,926 36.34 52
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[b] 73,464 4.63
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[b] 26,148 1.65
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[c] 22,462 1.41
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[c] 11,018 0.69
Tulsi Gabbard 9,461 0.60
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[a] 2,380 0.15
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[c] 1,732 0.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[a] 1,536 0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 840 0.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 757 0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 719 0.05
John Delaney (withdrawn)[d] 464 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 306 0.02
Uncommitted 19,106 1.20
Total 1,587,679 100% 125

See also

Notes

Additional candidates

  1. ^ a b c d Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
  2. ^ a b c d Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
  4. ^ a b Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  6. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  7. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. ^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 9%
  9. ^ Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  10. ^ Gabbard with 2%
  11. ^ Steyer with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ Steyer with 0%; "Other" with 1%; "Uncommitted" with 3%
  13. ^ Gabbard with 1%
  14. ^ Part of a 1,750 registered voter poll of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
  15. ^ Gabbard with 1%; Steyer with 0%; "Uncommitted" with 6%
  16. ^ Listed as "undecided/would not vote"
  17. ^ "Other" with 9%
  18. ^ "Declined" with 13%
  19. ^ Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Delaney, Steyer, and Williamson with 0%; Castro and Sestak with no voters; "Refused" with 5%
  20. ^ "Not sure/other" with 14%
  21. ^ Steyer with 1.7%; Delaney with 1.6%; Bennet with 0.8%; Gabbard with 0.7%; Patrick with 0.5%
  22. ^ Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; Someone else with 2%
  23. ^ Gabbard with 1%; others with 0%
  24. ^ Castro and Steyer with no voters; someone else with 0%
  25. ^ Bennet with 2%; Gabbard, Delaney with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer and Williamson with 0%
  26. ^ Labelled as "Other/unsure"
  27. ^ Gabbard and Steyer with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
  28. ^ Labelled as "Other/unsure"
  29. ^ Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee with 0%
  30. ^ Bennet, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Swalwell with 1%; Castro, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 0%
  31. ^ Gillibrand and Hickenlooper with 1%; Castro, Gabbard, and Inslee with 0%; others with 3%

References

  1. ^ "Election 2020 — Democratic Delegate Count". Real Clear Politics. March 10, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
  2. ^ "Live Primary Election Results: Michigan, Washington and More". New York Times. March 10, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
  3. ^ "Live results: 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary". Washington Post. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
  4. ^ "20 Presidential Election Results - Michigan".
  5. ^ Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
  6. ^ "2020 Delegate Selection Plan FINAL" (PDF). Michigan Democratic Party. Retrieved March 5, 2020.
  7. ^ a b "Michigan Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 3, 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
  8. ^ "Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses". The Green Papers. November 24, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2022.
  9. ^ "SOS—Upcoming Elections". Michigan Secretary of State. January 29, 2021. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
  10. ^ Barrett, Malachi (November 8, 2019). "Michigan Secretary of State issues 2020 presidential primary candidate list". mlive. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  11. ^ 270 to Win
  12. ^ RealClear Politics
  13. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  14. ^ Swayable Archived 2020-03-18 at the Wayback Machine
  15. ^ AtlasIntel
  16. ^ Data for Progress
  17. ^ Mitchell Research & Communications
  18. ^ Target Insyght
  19. ^ Concord Public Opinion Partners/
    The Welcome Party
  20. ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
  21. ^ Monmouth University
  22. ^ ROI Rocket
  23. ^ The Progress Campaign (D)
  24. ^ EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press
  25. ^ GlenGariff Group Inc./Detroit News/WDIV-TV
  26. ^ YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison
  27. ^ Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland
    University/Ohio Northern University
  28. ^ Emerson College
  29. ^ Siena Research/New York Times
  30. ^ Kaiser Family Foundation
  31. ^ Denno Research
  32. ^ Climate Nexus
  33. ^ Zogby Analytics
  34. ^ Denno Research Archived 2019-05-29 at the Wayback Machine
  35. ^ Emerson College Archived 2019-03-10 at the Wayback Machine
  36. ^ "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
  37. ^ "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
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