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2025 Ontario general election

2025 Ontario general election
← 2022 February 27, 2025 [1]
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election 83 seats, 40.82% 31 seats, 23.74%
Current seats 79 28
Seats needed Steady Increase 35
 
Leader Bonnie Crombie Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since December 2, 2023 November 15, 2009
Leader's seat Running in Mississauga East—Cooksville Guelph
Last election 8 seats, 23.85% 1 seat, 5.96%
Current seats 9 2
Seats needed Increase 54 Increase 61
Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



The 2025 Ontario general election will take place on February 27, 2025, to elect the 44th Parliament of Ontario.[2] On January 24, 2025, Premier Doug Ford confirmed that he would be asking the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the legislature and call for a snap election.[2]

The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC) government, led by Premier Doug Ford since 2018, will be seeking re-election to a third consecutive term. The PC's primary opponents are the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) led by Bonnie Crombie and the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Marit Stiles.

Background

Under the Ontario Elections Act, general elections must be held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[3] As the previous election was held on June 2, 2022, this election would be held on June 4, 2026. However, it has been speculated since early 2024 that Premier Doug Ford would call a snap election to take advantage of a lead in the polls and fundraising, as well as a desire to hold the election before the next federal election, which the Conservative Party is projected to win.[4][5] This speculation was fuelled in May 2024, when Ford refused to commit to the June 2026 date when asked by reporters at multiple press conferences.[6][7][8][4]

On January 23, 2025, multiple media outlets reported that Ford would visit Edith Dumont, the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario, on January 29 to ask for the 43rd Provincial Parliament to be dissolved, triggering an election to be held on February 27.[9][10][11] This was confirmed by Ford at a press conference on January 24.[12] On January 28, he met with Dumont; the Provincial Parliament was formally dissolved, with a writ of election issued the next day.[13][2][14] The election will cost $189 million.

Ridings

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[15] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[16] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[17][18] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[19]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario has been allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the next provincial election.[20]

Timeline

2022

2023

2025

  • January 28: Writs of the election were drawn up, dissolving the Legislature and officially starting the campaign.
  • February 27: Election day.

Seat changes

43rd Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2022–2025)
Party 2022 Gain/(loss) due to 2025
Resignation
as MPP 		Resignation
from caucus 		Expulsion Byelection
gain 		Byelection
hold
Progressive Conservative 83 (4) (2) (1) 3 79
New Democratic 31 (2) (2) 1 28
Liberal 8 (1) 1 1 9
Green 1 1 2
Independent 1 2 3 6
Total 124 (7) – – 2 5 124
Changes in seats held since June 2, 2022
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Hamilton Centre August 15, 2022 Andrea Horwath[29][30] █ New Democratic Resignation from legislature.[a 1] March 16, 2023 Sarah Jama[31] █ New Democratic
Don Valley North March 10, 2023 Vincent Ke[32] █ PC Resignation from caucus.[a 2] █ Independent
Kanata—Carleton March 24, 2023 Merrilee Fullerton[33] █ PC Resignation from legislature. July 27, 2023 Karen McCrimmon[34] █ Liberal
Algoma—Manitoulin March 31, 2023 Michael Mantha[35] █ New Democratic Expelled from caucus.[a 3] █ Independent
Scarborough—Guildwood May 10, 2023 Mitzie Hunter[36] █ Liberal Resignation from legislature.[a 4] July 27, 2023 Andrea Hazell[37] █ Liberal
Kitchener Centre July 13, 2023 Laura Mae Lindo[38][39] █ New Democratic Resignation from legislature.[a 5] November 30, 2023 Aislinn Clancy[40] █ Green
Mississauga East—Cooksville September 20, 2023 Kaleed Rasheed[41] █ PC Resignation from caucus.[a 6] █ Independent
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex September 22, 2023 Monte McNaughton[42] █ PC Resignation from legislature[a 7] May 2, 2024 Steve Pinsonneault █ PC
Hamilton Centre October 23, 2023 Sarah Jama[43] █ New Democratic Expelled from caucus.[a 8] █ Independent
Milton January 25, 2024 Parm Gill[44] █ PC Resignation from legislature.[a 9] May 2, 2024 Zee Hamid █ PC
Carleton June 28, 2024 Goldie Ghamari[45] █ PC Expelled from caucus.[a 10] █ Independent
Bay of Quinte August 16, 2024 Todd Smith[46] █ PC Resignation from legislature.[a 7] September 19, 2024 Tyler Allsopp █ PC
  1. ^ to run for Mayor of Hamilton.
  2. ^ due to allegations that he was involved in the 2019 Canadian Parliament infiltration plot.
  3. ^ over workplace misconduct allegations.
  4. ^ to run for Mayor of Toronto.
  5. ^ to accept position at the University of Waterloo
  6. ^ after contradictory claims were made regarding a Las Vegas business trip.
  7. ^ a b to accept position in the private sector
  8. ^ over comments made regarding the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
  9. ^ to run in the next federal election
  10. ^ after meeting with far-right activist Tommy Robinson

Byelection results

Analysis of byelections by turnout and vote share for winning candidate (vs 2022)
Riding and winning party Turnout Vote share for winning candidate
% Change (pp) % Change (pp)
Hamilton Centre █ New Democratic Hold 21.97 -15.97
 
 54.28 -2.98
 
Kanata—Carleton █ Liberal Gain 35.14 -16.24
 
 34.53 20.44 20.44
 
Scarborough—Guildwood █ Liberal Hold 21.84 -19.79
 
 36.55 -9.75
 
Kitchener Centre █ Green Gain 27.28 -18.94
 
 47.99 35.19 35.19
 
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex █ Progressive Conservative Hold 30.25 -17.08
 
 56.85 -1.96
 
Milton █ Progressive Conservative Hold 27.72 -14.99
 
 47.04 3.97 3.97
 
Bay of Quinte █ Progressive Conservative Hold 38.45 -7.46
 
 38.69 -10.61
 

Candidates

See also: Candidates of the 2025 Ontario general election

Incumbents not standing for re-election

13 MPPs chose not to campaign in the election:

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution Date announced
Ottawa Centre   Joel Harden[47] March 15, 2024
Hamilton Mountain   Monique Taylor[47] September 9, 2024
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound   Rick Byers[48] September 10, 2024
Nepean   Lisa MacLeod[49] September 13, 2024
Parkdale—High Park   Bhutila Karpoche[47] September 29, 2024
Mississauga East—Cooksville   Kaleed Rasheed[50] October 11, 2024
Wellington—Halton Hills   Ted Arnott[51] October 15, 2024
Eglinton—Lawrence   Robin Martin[52] November 1, 2024
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke   John Yakabuski[53] November 20, 2024
Sault Ste. Marie   Ross Romano[54] December 12, 2024
York South—Weston   Michael Ford[55] January 24, 2025
Carleton   Goldie Ghamari[a] No announcement
Don Valley North   Vincent Ke[a] No announcement

Campaign

Ford's PC's launched their campaign in Windsor, in front of the Ambassador Bridge. Stiles' NDP launched their campaign in Toronto, while Crombie's Liberal's launched their campaign in Barrie. Schreiner's Green's launched their campaign with a speech in Queen's Park.[56]

Issues

In January 2025, Ford began to state that he would need a "clear mandate" from voters to respond to the tariffs on Canadian imports to the United States threatened by new President Donald Trump.[57][58]

Party slogans

Party English French (translation)
█ PC "Protect Ontario" Unofficial: "Protéger l'Ontario"[59]
█ New Democratic "On Your Side" "À vos côtés"[59]
█ Liberal "More For You"[60] "Plus Pour Vous"
█ Green "People Before Profits"[61]

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party
Type PC NDP Liberal Green
Media
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations

Opinion polls

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
Mainstreet Research January 29, 2025 [p 1] 38 22 29 5 6 — 1,460 Smart IVR 9
Innovative Research January 27, 2025 [p 2] 51 18 23 6 2 — 1,286 Online 28
Mainstreet Research January 26, 2025 [p 3] 36 23 29 6 6 ±3.2% 936 Smart IVR 7
Abacus Data January 26, 2025 [p 4] 47 19 24 7 3 ±3.1% 1,021 Online 23
Campaign Research January 26, 2025 [p 5] 47 18 23 7 5 — 1,611 Online 24
Liaison Strategies January 23, 2025 [p 6] 39 18 33 5 5 ±2.71% 1,307 IVR 6
Leger January 19, 2025 [p 7] 46 19 22 7 6 ±3.08% 1,007 Online 24
Liaison Strategies January 16, 2025 [p 8] 41 19 32 5 4 ±2.83% 1,197 IVR 9
Campaign Research January 15, 2025 [p 9] 47 19 23 7 4 — 1,789 Online 24
Mainstreet Research January 15, 2025 [p 10] 40 21 30 5 4 ±3.2% 943 Smart IVR 10
Liaison Strategies January 9, 2025 [p 11] 40 21 30 4 5 ±2.82% 1,202 IVR 10
Abacus Data December 4, 2024 [p 12] 43 21 25 6 5 ±2.6% 1,500 Online 18
Mainstreet Research December 2, 2024 [p 13] 42 22 27 6 3 ±3.6% 742 Smart IVR 15
Abacus Data November 5, 2024 [p 14] 42 22 26 7 4 ±3.1% 998 Online 16
Pallas Data October 15, 2024 [p 15] 41.5 21.6 27.7 7.1 2.1 ±3.1% 996 IVR 13.8
Abacus Data October 10, 2024 [p 16] 44 22 24 7 4 ±3.1% 997 Online 20
Angus Reid September 18, 2024 [p 17] 40 25 23 7 4 ±3.0% 858 Online 15
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2024 [p 18] 41 18 30 5 6 ±3.5% 764 Smart IVR 11
Abacus Data August 17, 2024 [p 19] 42 21 26 8 4 ±3.057% 1,028 Online 16
Liaison Strategies August 20, 2024 [p 20] 40 21 27 6 6 ±2.71% 1,300 IVR 13
Abacus Data July 21, 2024 [p 21] 44 19 26 7 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 18
Liaison Strategies June 27, 2024 [p 22] 39 21 28 7 5 ±2.77% 1,245 IVR 11
Abacus Data June 25, 2024 [p 23] 41 22 25 8 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 16
Pallas Data June 4, 2024 [p 24] 39.4 22.6 26.5 8.3 3.2 ±2.9% 1,136 IVR 12.9
Abacus Data May 15, 2024 [p 25] 39 22 26 9 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 13
Abacus Data April 16, 2024 [p 26] 41 21 25 7 5 ±3.1% 995 Online 16
Liaison Strategies April 7, 2024 [p 27] 40 18 30 5 6 ±2.74% 1,280 IVR 10
Abacus Data March 21, 2024 [p 28] 41 21 27 7 5 ±2.5% 1,500 Online 14
Liaison Strategies March 9, 2024 [p 29] 39 21 29 5 6 ±2.74% 1,283 IVR 10
Angus Reid March 6, 2024 [p 30] 37 25 27 6 4 ±3.0% 777 Online 10
Abacus Data February 21, 2024 [p 31] 41 19 27 8 5 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 14
Pallas Data February 11, 2024 [p 32] 34.5 21.6 31.6 7.3 5.0 ±2.9% 1,121 IVR 2.9
Liaison Strategies February 3, 2024 [p 33][p 34] 38 22 30 5 5 ±2.8% 1,236 IVR 8
Abacus Data January 23, 2024 [p 35] 38 23 27 5 6 ±3.1% 995 Online 11
Abacus Data December 12, 2023 [p 36] 39 24 27 6 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 12
Mainstreet Research December 4, 2023 [p 37] 36 19 34 6 5 ±3.3% 872 Smart IVR 2
December 2, 2023 Bonnie Crombie is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Abacus Data November 28, 2023 [p 38] 42 24 23 7 4 ±2.6% 1,500 Online 18
Innovative Research October 30, 2023 [p 39] 41 26 25 7 2 — 925 Online 15
Abacus Data October 15, 2023 [p 40] 40 24 24 7 5 ±3.7% 700 Online 16
Pallas Data September 27, 2023 [p 41][p 42] 33.4 27.4 26.7 6.7 5.8 ±3.2% 964 IVR 6
Angus Reid September 6, 2023 [p 43] 38 28 22 7 5 — 656 Online 10
Abacus Data September 4, 2023 [p 44] 34 26 28 7 5 ±2.2% 2,003 Online 6
Pallas Data August 29, 2023 [p 45] 37.3 25.8 26.9 5.2 4.9 ±3.2% 940 IVR 10.4
Abacus Data August 23, 2023 [p 46] 38 24 25 7 6 ±3.1% 1,040 Online 13
Abacus Data July 25, 2023 [p 47] 41 23 24 7 5 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 17
Mainstreet Research June 30, 2023 [p 48][p 49] 34.7 24.7 25.0 10.7 4.9 ±3.1% 993 Smart IVR 9.7
Abacus Data June 11, 2023 [p 50][p 51] 36 26 27 6 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 9
Counsel Public Affairs June 8, 2023 [p 52] 39 23 27 7 4 — 1,323 Online 12
Angus Reid June 3, 2023 [p 53] 36 27 25 6 6 — 653 Online 9
Angus Reid March 13, 2023 [p 54] 38 30 20 6 6 ±3% 861 Online 8
Abacus Data March 4, 2023 [p 55] 41 22 28 5 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 13
Mainstreet Research February 4, 2023 [p 56] 36.8 19.4 23.3 11.2 9.4 ±2.9% 1,166 Smart IVR 13.5
February 4, 2023 Marit Stiles is declared leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party
Angus Reid December 3, 2022 [p 57] 37 27 25 6 5 ±3% 1,058 Online 10
Mainstreet Research December 2, 2022 [p 58] 37.3 25.9 24.4 6.6 5.8 ±2.9% 1,162 Smart IVR 11.4
Abacus Data November 5, 2022 [p 59] 38 26 27 5 5 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 11
August 3, 2022 Steven Del Duca resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party; John Fraser becomes interim leader
June 28, 2022 Andrea Horwath resigns as leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party; Peter Tabuns becomes interim leader
EKOS June 20, 2022 [p 60][p 61] 37.5 23.3 19.2 9.8 10.2 ±2.7% 1,357 Online/Telephone 14.2
2022 election June 2, 2022 — 40.82 23.74 23.85 5.96 5.62 — — — 16.97

References

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  1. ^ a b Previously elected under PC banner

Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ "📊 Ontario Daily Tracker Poll, Day 1". Twitter. Mainstreet Research. January 30, 2025. Retrieved January 30, 2025.
  2. ^ "Canada this month : Ontario Politics" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. January 27, 2025. Retrieved January 28, 2025.
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  4. ^ "As Election Kicks Off, Ontario PCs lead by 23: Why Doug Ford is well positioned to be re-elected". Abacus Data. January 29, 2025. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  5. ^ "Ontario provincial polling". Polling Canada. Retrieved January 28, 2025.
  6. ^ Valentin, David (January 27, 2025). "Ford's Lead Down to 6 Points As Campaign Commences". Liaison Strategies. Retrieved January 27, 2025.
  7. ^ "Ontario Provincial Politics: January 2025" (PDF). Leger360. January 22, 2025. Retrieved January 22, 2025.
  8. ^ Valentin, David (January 20, 2025). "Ontario PCs Lead by 9; 1 in 4 Undecided". Liaison Strategies. Retrieved January 20, 2025.
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  11. ^ Valentin, David (January 13, 2025). "Ontario PCs Lead by 10 over Ontario Liberals". Liaison Strategies. Retrieved January 13, 2025.
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Prefix: a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

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