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2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota

2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota's at-large district
← 2016 November 6, 2018 2020 →
 
Nominee Kelly Armstrong Mac Schneider
Party Republican Democratic–NPL
Popular vote 193,568 114,377
Percentage 60.2% 35.6%
County results
Armstrong:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Schneider:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Kevin Cramer
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Kelly Armstrong
Republican

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The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative for North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the U.S. Senate election, as well as other statewide, legislative, and local elections.

Though incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer announced on January 11, 2018, he will run for re-election to a fourth term, he later indicated an intention to run for the United States Senate instead.[1][2][3] On February 16, 2018, Cramer announced his Senate campaign.

Republican primary

State Senator Tom Campbell has stated he intends to run for the U.S. Senate if Cramer runs for re-election and to run for the U.S. House if Cramer does not run for re-election.[4] Campbell declared for the seat following Cramer's run for Senate. However, on April 11, Campbell dropped out of the race to endorse Armstrong.[5]

Candidates

Nominated

Declared

  • Tiffany Abentroth, U.S. Marine Corps veteran[7]
  • Paul Schaffner, oil field employee[8]

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tiffany
Abentroth 		Kelly
Armstrong 		Tom
Campbell 		Julie
Fedorchak 		DuWayne
Hendrickson 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing[11] February 21–24, 2018 385 ± 5.0% 1% 13% 28% 9% 1% 47%

Results

Results by county:
  Armstrong—80–90%
  Armstrong—70–80%
  Armstrong—60–70%
  Armstrong—50–60%
  Armstrong—40–50%
  Abentroth—30–40%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Armstrong 37,054 56.23
Republican Tom Campbell (withdrawn) 17,692 26.85
Republican Tiffany Abentroth 5,877 8.92
Republican Paul Schaffner 5,203 7.90
Republican Write-Ins 75 0.11
Total votes 65,901 100.00

Democratic-NPL primary

The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Mac Schneider. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election to be held June 12, both other candidates decided to withdraw from the race, rather than challenge Schneider in the primary.[12]

Candidates

Endorsed

Withdrawn

Results

Results by county:
  Schneider—100%
  Schneider—≥90%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic–NPL Mac Schneider 33,545 99.78
Democratic–NPL Write-Ins 74 0.22
Total votes 33,619 100.00

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Solid R June 1, 2018
The Rothenberg Political Report[18] Solid R June 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Safe R June 6, 2018

Debates

Host
network/sponsors 		Date Link(s) Participants
Mac
Schneider (D) 		Kelly
Armstrong (R)
KFYR-TV August 16, 2018 [20] Invited Invited
Prairie Public September 11, 2018 [21] Invited Invited
KFGO September 19, 2018 [22] Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Armstrong (R) 		Mac
Schneider (D) 		Other Undecided
FOX News[23] October 27–30, 2018 789 LV ± 3.0% 55% 33% 2% 10%
851 RV ± 3.0% 52% 32% 3% 12%
Strategic Research Associates[24] October 12–19, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 56% 35% – 9%
FOX News[25] September 29 – October 2, 2018 704 LV ± 3.5% 51% 34% 2% 12%
801 V ± 3.5% 49% 33% 2% 14%
Strategic Research Associates[26] September 17–27, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 55% 31% – 14%
FOX News[27] September 8–11, 2018 701 LV ± 3.5% 48% 34% 2% 15%
804 V ± 3.5% 47% 32% 2% 17%
Axis Research (R-Armstrong)[28] August 26–28, 2018 506 ± 4.5% 53% 32% – 15%
Mason-Dixon[29] June 13–15, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 46% 35% – 19%
Axis Research (R-Armstrong)[30] May 13–14, 2018 509 ± 4.5% 48% 26% – 26%

Results

North Dakota's at-large congressional district, 2018[31]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kelly Armstrong 193,568 60.20% −8.93%
Democratic–NPL Mac Schneider 114,377 35.57% +11.82%
Independent Charles Tuttle 13,066 4.06% N/A
n/a Write-ins 521 0.16% N/A
Total votes 321,532 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

References

  1. ^ Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016). "2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
  2. ^ a b Robillard, Kevin (January 11, 2018). "Cramer won't run for Senate in North Dakota". Politico. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
  3. ^ a b Golshan, Tara (February 15, 2018). "A vulnerable North Dakota Democratic senator just attracted a serious GOP challenger". Vox. Vox Media. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
  4. ^ Hageman, John (November 22, 2016). "Grafton senator eyes congressional run". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved November 23, 2016.
  5. ^ "Tom Campbell Drops Out of North Dakota House Race". April 11, 2018.
  6. ^ MacPherson, James (April 7, 2018). "ND GOP endorses Armstrong". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Associated Press. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
  7. ^ "Marine Vet Tiffany Abentroth Seeks ND's Sole U.S. House Seat". Military.com. February 20, 2018. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
  8. ^ Hageman, John; Springer, Patrick (April 11, 2018). "Campbell drops out of US House race, paving way for GOP's Armstrong". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Forum News Service. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
  9. ^ Garcia, Eric (April 11, 2018). "Tom Campbell Drops Out of North Dakota House Race". Roll Call.
  10. ^ Hageman, John (February 19, 2018). "Emineth won't run for US House in North Dakota".
  11. ^ Gravis Marketing
  12. ^ a b Hageman, John (March 20, 2018). "Hanson endorses fellow ND Democrat Mac Schneider in US House Race". Inforum. Retrieved March 20, 2018.
  13. ^ Easter, Sam (March 6, 2018). "Mac Schneider launches U.S. House bid in Grand Forks". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved March 6, 2018.
  14. ^ a b Hageman, John (March 17, 2018). "Democrats endorse Schneider for US House Race". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved March 17, 2018.
  15. ^ Haney, Don (August 16, 2017). "Ben Hanson, former legislator from West Fargo announces bid for congress". KFGO. Retrieved August 16, 2017.[permanent dead link‍]
  16. ^ Norman, Keith (February 26, 2018). "Grabinger running for U.S. House". The Jamestown Sun. Retrieved February 26, 2018.
  17. ^ "House Maps". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
  18. ^ "South Dakota | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
  19. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 House". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
  20. ^ "KFYR-TV hosts North Dakota U.S. House candidate debate".
  21. ^ Prairie Public Broadcasting (September 11, 2018), ND House Debate Kelly Armstrong (R) & Mac Schneider (D), retrieved September 24, 2018
  22. ^ "US House Candidates Agree on Marijuana, Argue About Trade". U.S. News. September 19, 2018.
  23. ^ FOX News
  24. ^ Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine
  25. ^ FOX News
  26. ^ Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine
  27. ^ FOX News
  28. ^ Axis Research (R-Armstrong)
  29. ^ Mason-Dixon
  30. ^ Axis Research (R-Armstrong)
  31. ^ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.

Official campaign websites

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