2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota

2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Turnout	63.89%
	Klobuchar: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Newberger: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: No Vote:
U.S. senator before election; Amy Klobuchar; Democratic (DFL)	Elected U.S. Senator ; Amy Klobuchar; Democratic (DFL)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States Senator from Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Republican state House of Representatives member Jim Newberger. This election was held alongside a special election for Minnesota's other Senate seat, which was held by Al Franken until he resigned in January 2018. U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections were also held.

The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018.^[1] This is the last time that the winner of the United States Senate election in Minnesota won a majority of Minnesota's counties.

Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary

Candidates

Nominated

Amy Klobuchar, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Eliminated in primary

Steve Carlson^[3]
Stephen A. Emery^[3]
David R. Groves^[3]
Leonard J. Richards^[3]

Endorsements

Amy Klobuchar

Organizations

Communications Workers of America^[4]
EMILY's List^[5]
End Citizens United^[6]
Feminist Majority Political Action Committee ^[7]
League of Conservation Voters^[8]
National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare^[9]
Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund^[10]
Population Connection^[11]
United Automobile Workers^[12]

Results

Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party primary results^[13]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic (DFL)	Amy Klobuchar (incumbent)	557,306	95.70%
	Democratic (DFL)	Steve Carlson	9,934	1.71%
	Democratic (DFL)	Stephen Emery	7,047	1.21%
	Democratic (DFL)	David Groves	4,511	0.77%
	Democratic (DFL)	Leonard Richards	3,552	0.61%
Total votes			582,350	100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Jim Newberger, state representative^[14] (Minnesota GOP convention endorsed)^[15]

Eliminated in primary

Merrill Anderson,^[3] Past Candidate (Mayor of Minneapolis), Past Candidate (Governor of Minnesota)
Rae Hart Anderson^[3]
Rocky De La Fuente, 2016 Reform Party Presidential Nominee and perennial candidate^[3]

Declined

Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota^[16] (running for governor)

Endorsements

Jim Newberger

State legislators

Representative Tony Albright, 55B, Vice Chair of the Health and Human Services Finance Committee
Senator Bruce Anderson, SD 29
Representative Paul Anderson, 12B, Chair of the Agriculture Policy Committee
Representative Jeff Backer, 12A, Vice Chair of the Agriculture Policy Committee
Representative Cal Bahr, 31B.
Representative Peggy Bennett, 27A, Vice Chair of the Education Finance Committee
Senator Dave Brown, SD15, retired
Representative Drew Christensen, 56A
Representative Steve Drazkowski, 21B, Chair of the Property Tax Committee
Representative Sondra Erickson, 15A, Chair of the Education Innovation Policy Committee
Representative Dan Fabian, 1A, Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Committee
Representative Patrick Garofalo, 58B, Chair of the Growth and Energy Affordibility Committee
Representative Steve Green, 2B
Representative Glenn Gruenhagen, 18B
Representative Bob Gunther, 23A, Chair of the Legacy Committee
Senator Dan Hall, SD 56, Chair of the Local Government Finance Committee
Representative Josh Heintzeman, 10A, Vice Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Committee
Representative Jerry Hertaus, 33A, Vice Chair of the Property Tax Committee
Representative Jeff Howe, 13A
Senator Bill Ingebrigtsen, SD 8, Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Finance Committee
Representative Tony Jurgens, 54B.
Representative Ron Kresha, 9B, Majority Whip
Representative Sandy Layman, 5B
Representative Kathy Lohmer, 39B
Representative Bob Loonan, 55A
Representative Eric Lucero, 30B
Representative Dale Lueck, 10B, Vice Chair of the Mining, Forestry and Tourism SubCommittee
Senator Andrew Mathews, SD15, Vice Chair, Energy and Utilities Committee.
Representative Anne Neu, 32B
Representative Marion O'Neill, 29B, Chair of Employee Relations Sub Committee
Representative Joyce Peppin, 34A, Majority Leader
Representative Roz Peterson, 56B
Representative John Poston, 9A.
Representative Cindy Pugh, 33B, Vice Chair of the Government Operations and Elections Committee
Representative Duane Quam, 25A
Senator Julie Rosen, SD23, Finance Committee Chair
Representative Dennis Smith, 34B, Vice Chair of the Civil Law and Data Practices Committee
Representative Mark Uglem, 36A, Vice Chair of the Capital Investment Committee
Representative Nick Zerwas, 30A

Individuals

Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow^[17]^[18]

Organizations

Chinese American Alliance Action^[19]

Newspapers

Duluth News Tribune^[20]

Results

Results by county

Map legend

Newberger—80–90%
Newberger—70–80%
Newberger—60–70%
Newberger—50–60%

Results by congressional district

Map legend

Newberger—70–80%
Newberger—60–70%

Republican Party primary results^[13]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jim Newberger	201,531	69.50%
	Republican	Merrill Anderson	45,492	15.69%
	Republican	Rae Hart Anderson	25,883	8.93%
	Republican	Roque "Rocky" de la Fuente	17,051	5.88%
Total votes			289,957	100%

Minor parties and independents

Candidates

Paula M. Overby (Green Party)^[21]
Dennis Schuller (Legal Marijuana Now Party)^[22]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[23]	Safe D	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections^[24]	Safe D	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[25]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Fox News^[26]	Likely D	July 9, 2018
CNN^[27]	Safe D	July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[28]	Safe D	November 5, 2018

Debates

On August 24, MPR News hosted a debate between Amy Klobuchar and Jim Newberger at the Minnesota State Fair.^[29]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	$10,139,499	$7,700,359	$5,086,325
Jim Newberger (R)	$210,846	$191,815	$19,030
Source: Federal Election Commission^[30]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Jim Newberger (R)	Paula Overby (G)	Dennis Schuller (LMN)	Other	Undecided
Change Research^[31]	November 2–4, 2018	953	–	55%	40%	2%	3%	–	–
Research Co.^[32]	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	53%	33%	–	–	2%	12%
SurveyUSA^[33]	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 5.3%	57%	34%	–	–	1%	7%
St. Cloud State University^[34]	October 15–30, 2018	420	–	54%	28%	–	–	–
Mason-Dixon^[35]	October 15–17, 2018	800	± 3.5%	56%	33%	2%	2%	–	8%
Change Research^[36]	October 12–13, 2018	1,413	–	50%	41%	2%	5%	–	2%
Marist College^[37]	September 30 – October 4, 2018	637 LV	± 4.9%	60%	32%	4%	–	<1%	4%
		637 LV	± 4.9%	63%	33%	–	–	<1%	4%
		860 RV	± 4.2%	59%	32%	5%	–	<1%	5%
		860 RV	± 4.2%	62%	33%	–	–	<1%	5%
Mason-Dixon^[38]	September 10–12, 2018	800	± 3.5%	60%	30%	1%	3%	–	6%
SurveyUSA^[39]	September 6–8, 2018	574	± 4.9%	53%	38%	–	–	2%	8%
Suffolk University^[40]	August 17–20, 2018	500	± 4.4%	54%	34%	1%	1%	–	11%
Emerson College^[41]	August 8–11, 2018	500	± 4.6%	50%	26%	–	–	–	24%
BK Strategies^[42]	June 24–25, 2018	1,574	± 2.5%	57%	37%	–	–	–	6%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Undecided
BK Strategies (R)^[43]	June 24–25, 2018	1,574	± 2.5%	49%	42%	9%

Results

Klobuchar won the election by a margin of 24.10%. She carried a clear majority of the state's 87 counties, won every congressional district, and had the biggest statewide margin of any statewide candidate in Minnesota in 2018. Klobuchar ran up huge margins in the state's population centers and trounced Newberger in the counties encompassing the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. As in her 2012 victory, she also won many rural counties. Klobuchar was sworn in for a third term on January 3, 2019.

United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018^[44]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic (DFL)	Amy Klobuchar (incumbent)	1,566,174	60.31%	−4.92%
	Republican	Jim Newberger	940,437	36.21%	+5.68%
	Legal Marijuana Now	Dennis Schuller	66,236	2.55%	N/A
	Green	Paula Overby	23,101	0.89%	N/A
	Write-in		931	0.04%	N/A
Total votes			2,596,879	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Morrison (largest city: Little Falls)
Todd (largest city: Long Prairie)
Jackson (largest city: Jackson)
Faribault (largest city: Blue Earth)
Nobles (largest city: Worthington)
Martin (largest city: Fairmont)
Cottonwood (largest city: Windom)
Dodge (largest city: Kasson)
Murray (largest city: Slayton)
Lincoln (largest city: Tyler)
Redwood (largest city: Redwood Falls)
Brown (largest city: New Ulm)
McLeod (largest city: Hutchinson)
Meeker (largest city: Litchfield)
Wright (largest city: Otsego)
Sibley (largest city: Gaylord)
Benton (largest city: Sauk Rapids)
Sherburne (largest city: Elk River)
Isanti (largest city: Cambridge)
Chisago (largest city: North Branch)
Mille Lacs (largest city: Princeton)
Kanabec (largest city: Mora)
Marshall (largest city: Warren)
Lake of the Woods (largest city: Baudette)
Roseau (largest city: Roseau)
Clearwater (largest city: Bagley)
Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks)
Becker (largest city: Detroit Lakes)
Douglas (largest city: Alexandria)
Otter Tail (largest city: Fergus Falls)
Cass (largest city: Lake Shore)
Crow Wing (largest city: Brainerd)
Hubbard (largest city: Park Rapids)
Wadena (largest city: Wadena)

By congressional district

Klobuchar won all 8 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.^[45]

District	Klobuchar	Newberger	Representative
1st	53.93%	42.34%	Tim Walz (115th Congress)
1st	53.93%	42.34%	Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress)
2nd	58.96%	37.65%	Jason Lewis (115th Congress)
2nd	58.96%	37.65%	Angie Craig (116th Congress)
3rd	62.54%	34.80%	Erik Paulsen (115th Congress)
3rd	62.54%	34.80%	Dean Phillips (116th Congress)
4th	71.09%	25.25%	Betty McCollum
5th	81.21%	14.88%	Keith Ellison (115th Congress)
5th	81.21%	14.88%	Ilhan Omar (116th Congress)
6th	48.28%	48.18%	Tom Emmer
7th	48.44%	48.32%	Collin Peterson
8th	53.69%	42.83%	Rick Nolan (115th Congress)
8th	53.69%	42.83%	Pete Stauber (116th Congress)

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup	Klobuchar	Newberger	No Answer	% of Voters
Gender
Men	54	45	1	46
Women	67	32	1	54
Age
18–24 years old	79	19	2	6
25–29 years old	60	39	1	5
30–39 years old	63	35	2	12
40–49 years old	57	42	1	13
50–64 years old	61	38	1	29
65 and older	60	39	1	35
Race
White	59	40	1	89
Black	86	12	2	5
Latino	N/A	N/A	N/A	3
Asian	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Other	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Race by gender
White men	52	47	1	40
White women	65	34	1	49
Black men	N/A	N/A	N/A	3
Black women	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Latino men	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Latino women	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Others	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
Education
High school or less	59	40	1	17
Some college education	55	43	2	23
Associate degree	54	44	2	17
Bachelor's degree	66	34	N/A	26
Advanced degree	75	25	N/A	16
Education and race
White college graduates	68	31	1	38
White no college degree	53	46	1	51
Non-white college graduates	79	20	1	4
Non-white no college degree	82	17	1	7
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees	74	25	1	21
White women without college degrees	59	40	1	28
White men with college degrees	61	39	N/A	17
White men without college degrees	46	53	1	23
Non-whites	80	18	2	11
Income
Under $30,000	67	28	5	14
$30,000–49,999	63	35	2	20
$50,000–99,999	55	44	1	36
$100,000–199,999	64	36	N/A	23
Over $200,000	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Party ID
Democrats	98	2	N/A	39
Republicans	18	81	1	32
Independents	62	36	2	29
Party by gender
Democratic men	96	4	N/A	14
Democratic women	99	1	N/A	25
Republican men	16	84	N/A	15
Republican women	20	78	2	17
Independent men	56	42	2	16
Independent women	69	29	2	13
Ideology
Liberals	96	3	1	27
Moderates	76	23	1	39
Conservatives	17	82	1	33
Marital status
Married	55	44	1	67
Unmarried	69	28	3	33
Gender by marital status
Married men	51	47	2	31
Married women	58	42	N/A	36
Unmarried men	59	38	3	15
Unmarried women	79	19	2	18
First-time midterm election voter
Yes	59	40	1	13
No	64	35	1	87
Most important issue facing the country
Health care	78	20	2	50
Immigration	29	70	1	22
Economy	37	62	1	18
Gun policy	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Area type
Urban	73	26	1	40
Suburban	58	41	1	32
Rural	49	49	2	28
Source: CNN^[46]

References

^ "United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
^ Sherry, Allison (December 25, 2016). "Klobuchar will run again for Senate, rules herself out for governor's race". Star Tribune. Retrieved December 26, 2016.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g "Candidate Filings". candidates.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
^ "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political. Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
^ "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
^ Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Amy Klobuchar for Re-election". End Citizens United.
^ "Amy Klobuchar – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
^ "Endorsements - League of Conservation Voters".
^ NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". Retrieved December 18, 2018.
^ "NRDC Action Fund announces first wave of 2018 Senate endorsements". www.nrdcactionfund.org. January 5, 2018.
^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
^ "Minnesota – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
^ ^a ^b "Minnesota 2018 Primary Election Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 12, 2019. Retrieved May 28, 2019.
^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (August 5, 2017). "Challenger emerges to run against U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar — GOP state Rep. Jim Newberger". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved August 5, 2017.
^ "GOP endorses Housley, Newberger for U.S. Senate". June 2, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
^ "Pawlenty won't run for Senate in Minnesota". Politico. January 16, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
^ [1]^{[dead link]}
^ Lindell, Mike (October 31, 2018). "My friend @NewbergerJim will be one of the best US Senators ever!pic.twitter.com/gZCkRCQ1nw". Retrieved December 18, 2018.
^ "CAA Endorsing James Newberger For US Senate". Jim Newberger for US Senate.
^ "Our View / Endorsement: Newberger already focused on Klobuchar". Duluth News Tribune. July 24, 2018.
^ McMullen, Maureen (November 11, 2017). "Transgender candidate announces U.S. Senate campaign in Minn., seeking Green Party endorsement". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved January 25, 2018.
^ Golden, Erin (June 16, 2018). "Legal pot advocates join Minnesota races for state, federal offices". Star Tribune. Retrieved June 17, 2018.
^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 7, 2017.
^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved August 14, 2018.
^ Pugmire, Tim (August 22, 2018). "Sen. Amy Klobuchar and state Rep. Jim Newberger debate at the State Fair". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
^ Change Research
^ Research Co.
^ SurveyUSA
^ St. Cloud State University
^ Mason-Dixon
^ Change Research
^ Marist College
^ Mason-Dixon
^ SurveyUSA
^ Suffolk University Archived 2018-12-08 at the Wayback Machine
^ Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine
^ BK Strategies Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine
^ BK Strategies (R) Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine
^ "Minnesota Secretary Of State - 2018 General Election Results". www.sos.state.mn.us. Archived from the original on April 10, 2020. Retrieved December 18, 2018.
^ "Daily Kos".
^ "Minnesota Senate election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved November 20, 2018.

External links

Elections & Voting - Minnesota Secretary of State
Candidates at Vote Smart
Candidates at Ballotpedia
Campaign finance at FEC
Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

[1] "United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.

[2] Sherry, Allison (December 25, 2016). "Klobuchar will run again for Senate, rules herself out for governor's race". Star Tribune. Retrieved December 26, 2016.

[:0-3] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g "Candidate Filings". candidates.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved June 8, 2018.

[4] "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political. Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.

[5] "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.

[6] Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Amy Klobuchar for Re-election". End Citizens United.

[7] "Amy Klobuchar – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.

[8] "Endorsements - League of Conservation Voters".

[9] NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". Retrieved December 18, 2018.

[10] "NRDC Action Fund announces first wave of 2018 Senate endorsements". www.nrdcactionfund.org. January 5, 2018.

[11] "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.

[12] "Minnesota – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.

[Minnesota_2018_Primary_Election_Results-13] "Minnesota 2018 Primary Election Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 12, 2019. Retrieved May 28, 2019.

[14] Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (August 5, 2017). "Challenger emerges to run against U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar — GOP state Rep. Jim Newberger". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved August 5, 2017.

[15] "GOP endorses Housley, Newberger for U.S. Senate". June 2, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.

[16] "Pawlenty won't run for Senate in Minnesota". Politico. January 16, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.

[17] [1]^{[dead link]}

[18] Lindell, Mike (October 31, 2018). "My friend @NewbergerJim will be one of the best US Senators ever!pic.twitter.com/gZCkRCQ1nw". Retrieved December 18, 2018.

[19] "CAA Endorsing James Newberger For US Senate". Jim Newberger for US Senate.

[20] "Our View / Endorsement: Newberger already focused on Klobuchar". Duluth News Tribune. July 24, 2018.

[21] McMullen, Maureen (November 11, 2017). "Transgender candidate announces U.S. Senate campaign in Minn., seeking Green Party endorsement". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved January 25, 2018.

[:02-22] Golden, Erin (June 16, 2018). "Legal pot advocates join Minnesota races for state, federal offices". Star Tribune. Retrieved June 17, 2018.

[23] "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.

[24] "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.

[25] "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 7, 2017.

[26] "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.

[27] "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.

[28] "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved August 14, 2018.

[29] Pugmire, Tim (August 22, 2018). "Sen. Amy Klobuchar and state Rep. Jim Newberger debate at the State Fair". Retrieved August 29, 2018.

[30] "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.

[31] Change Research

[32] Research Co.

[33] SurveyUSA

[34] St. Cloud State University

[35] Mason-Dixon

[36] Change Research

[37] Marist College

[38] Mason-Dixon

[39] SurveyUSA

[40] Suffolk University Archived 2018-12-08 at the Wayback Machine

[41] Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine

[42] BK Strategies Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine

[43] BK Strategies (R) Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine

[44] "Minnesota Secretary Of State - 2018 General Election Results". www.sos.state.mn.us. Archived from the original on April 10, 2020. Retrieved December 18, 2018.

[45] "Daily Kos".

[46] "Minnesota Senate election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved November 20, 2018.

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2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota

Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Minor parties and independents

Candidates

General election

Predictions

Debates

Fundraising

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Voter demographics

See also

References

External links