2022 United States Senate election in Washington
The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington . Murray had won re-election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.[ 1]
Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.[ 2]
Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error . A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset .[ 3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean.[ 4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.[ 5]
Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress , becoming the first woman to hold the role.[ 6]
Primary election
Democratic candidates
Advanced to general
Eliminated in primary
Pano Churchill, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 [ 7]
Sam Cusmir[ 7]
Ravin Pierre, aerospace engineer and data scientist[ 7]
Mohammed Said, physician and perennial candidate[ 7]
Bryan Solstin, aerospace engineer and software developer[ 7]
Withdrawn before primary
David Ishii
Nicolaust Sleister
Robert Kirby
Republican candidates
Advanced to general
Eliminated in primary
John Guenther, state employee[ 7]
Bill Hirt, perennial candidate[ 7]
Withdrawn before primary
Bob Hagglund, IT professional
Isaac Holyk, CEO of a software development Company
Third party and independent candidates
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn before primary
Mfumu Metamorphosis Mpiana
Larry Hussey
Endorsements
Patty Murray (D)
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Tiffany Smiley (R)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Results
Blanket primary results by county 30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
General election
Debates
Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University .[ 41] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle .[ 42]
Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University .
Predictions
Endorsements
Patty Murray (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Tiffany Smiley (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Patty Murray (D)
Tiffany Smiley (R)
Undecided[ a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [ 64]
October 14–31, 2022
November 3, 2022
49.3%
46.3%
4.4%
Murray +3.0
FiveThirtyEight [ 65]
May 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022
November 7, 2022
49.6%
44.9%
6.5%
Murray +4.7
270ToWin [ 66]
October 21 – November 1, 2022
November 7, 2022
49.5%
44.5%
6.0%
Murray +4.3
Average
49.5%
45.2%
5.3%
Murray +4.3
Graphical summary
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Patty Murray (D)
Tiffany Smiley (R)
Other
Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)[ 67] [ A]
November 3–5, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.0%
47%
47%
–
5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 68] [ B]
October 31, 2022
550 (LV)
± 4.2%
48%
46%
–
6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 69]
October 25–28, 2022
1,207 (LV)
± 2.9%
49%
48%
–
2%
Triton Polling & Research [ 70] [ C]
October 26–27, 2022
506 (LV)
± 4.4%
51%
45%
–
4%
Moore Information Group (R)[ 71] [ A]
October 20–22, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.0%
46%
46%
–
8%
KAConsulting (R)[ 72] [ D]
October 20–22, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
48%
42%
4%[ c]
6%
co/efficient (R)[ 73]
October 19–20, 2022
1,181 (LV)
± 3.0%
48%
45%
–
7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 74] [ E]
October 19–20, 2022
782 (LV)
± 3.5%
52%
42%
–
6%
SurveyUSA [ 75]
October 14–19, 2022
589 (LV)
± 5.0%
49%
41%
–
10%
Civiqs [ 76]
October 15–18, 2022
698 (LV)
± 4.5%
55%
41%
3%[ d]
2%
Emerson College [ 77]
September 29 – October 1, 2022
782 (LV)
± 3.4%
51%
42%
–
7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 78]
September 27–28, 2022
770 (V)
± 3.5%
52%
40%
–
8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[ 79] [ F]
September 20–27, 2022
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
46%
42%
5%[ e]
6%
Strategies 360 [ 80]
September 22–25, 2022
500 (RV)
± 4.4%
50%
36%
–
14%
370 (LV)
± 5.1%
52%
40%
–
8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 81]
September 21–24, 2022
1,091 (LV)
± 2.9%
49%
47%
–
5%
Elway Research [ 82]
September 12–15, 2022
403 (LV)
± 3.0%
50%
37%
–
12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 83]
September 6–7, 2022
620 (V)
± 3.0%
48%
39%
–
13%
Moore Information Group (R)[ 71] [ A]
September 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.0%
48%
44%
–
8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 84]
August 30 – September 1, 2022
1,087 (LV)
± 2.9%
49%
46%
–
5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[ 85]
August 15–17, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
49%
43%
–
8%
Elway Research [ 86]
July 7–11, 2022
400 (RV)
± 4.5%
53%
33%
–
15%
SurveyUSA [ 87]
July 6–10, 2022
596 (LV)
± 5.0%
51%
33%
–
16%
The Tarrance Group (R)[ 88] [ G]
June 14–19, 2022
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
48%
43%
–
9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 89] [ E]
June 1–2, 2022
1,039 (LV)
± 3.0%
51%
40%
–
8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 90] [ E]
February 17–18, 2022
700 (LV)
± 3.7%
50%
41%
–
9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 91] [ E]
November 10–11, 2021
909 (LV)
± 3.3%
50%
37%
–
13%
SurveyUSA [ 92]
October 25–28, 2021
542 (RV)
± 5.2%
49%
31%
–
20%
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 93] [ E]
May 25–26, 2021
992 (LV)
± 3.1%
53%
37%
–
10%
Hypothetical polling
Patty Murray vs. generic Republican
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Patty Murray (D)
Generic Republican
Undecided
Elway Research [ 94]
December 26–28, 2021
400 (RV)
± 5.0%
42%
39%
19%
Patty Murray vs. generic opponent
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Patty Murray (D)
Generic Opponent
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[ 85]
August 15–17, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
44%
44%
12%
Results
By county
By county
County[ 96]
Patty Murray
Democratic
Tiffany Smiley
Republican
Write-In
Total
%
#
%
#
%
#
Adams
23.46%
969
76.25%
3,150
0.29%
12
4,131
Asotin
35.27%
3,181
64.58%
5,824
0.14%
13
9,018
Benton
33.68%
25,513
66.15%
50,108
0.17%
128
75,749
Chelan
41.94%
14,373
57.87%
19,833
0.20%
67
34,273
Clallam
51.60%
20,784
48.17%
19,401
0.23%
94
40,279
Clark
51.09%
105,058
48.76%
100,260
0.14%
298
205,616
Columbia
27.17%
592
72.28%
1,575
0.55%
12
2,179
Cowlitz
38.80%
17,439
61.07%
27,446
0.13%
57
44,942
Douglas
32.73%
5,275
67.05%
10,086
0.22%
36
16,117
Ferry
31.04%
1,060
68.76%
2,348
0.20%
7
3,415
Franklin
31.61%
7,022
68.31%
15,174
0.08%
18
22,214
Garfield
23.85%
307
75.91%
977
0.23%
3
1,287
Grant
26.83%
7,221
73.03%
19,655
0.13%
36
26,912
Grays Harbor
46.26%
13,600
53.46%
15,718
0.28%
81
29,399
Island
55.00%
23,680
44.77%
19,275
0.24%
102
43,057
Jefferson
70.62%
14,970
29.18%
6,185
0.21%
44
21,199
King
75.05%
668,692
24.73%
220,307
0.22%
1,943
890,942
Kitsap
57.51%
70,939
42.26%
52,134
0.23%
276
123,351
Kittitas
39.99%
8,318
59.84%
12,446
0.16%
34
20,798
Klickitat
41.89%
4,798
57.96%
6,639
0.16%
18
11,455
Lewis
31.29%
11,263
68.50%
24,654
0.21%
75
35,992
Lincoln
23.12%
1,423
76.63%
4,716
0.24%
15
6,154
Mason
46.74%
13,777
52.97%
15,612
0.29%
86
29,475
Okanogan
40.01%
6,644
59.78%
9,926
0.20%
34
16,605
Pacific
48.32%
5,771
51.39%
6,137
0.29%
35
11,943
Pend Oreille
29.94%
2,032
69.82%
4,739
0.24%
16
6,787
Pierce
52.69%
175,164
47.02%
156,331
0.29%
959
332,454
San Juan
72.88%
8,254
26.97%
3,055
0.15%
17
11,326
Skagit
51.57%
29,316
48.19%
27,394
0.24%
139
56,849
Skamania
42.07%
2,620
57.80%
3,599
0.13%
8
6,227
Snohomish
57.52%
184,430
42.21%
135,339
0.27%
864
320,633
Spokane
45.46%
100,719
54.34%
120,369
0.20%
443
221,531
Stevens
26.50%
6,073
73.31%
16,803
0.19%
43
22,919
Thurston
58.04%
73,189
41.69%
52,570
0.28%
347
126,106
Wahkiakum
39.26%
1,007
60.47%
1,551
0.27%
7
2,565
Walla Walla
41.38%
10,039
58.50%
14,192
0.12%
29
24,260
Whatcom
59.32%
65,950
40.51%
45,038
0.16%
182
111,170
Whitman
49.81%
7,824
49.96%
7,848
0.22%
35
15,707
Yakima
35.86%
22,541
63.93%
40,188
0.22%
136
62,865
Total
57.15%
1,741,827
42.63%
1,299,322
0.22%
6,751
3,047,900
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.[ 97]
See also
Notes
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ a b c Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ "Other/Refused" with 4%
^ "Someone else" with 3%
^ "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
^ a b c Poll conducted for the NRSC and the Evergreen Principles PAC, which supports Smiley.
^ This poll was sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative news outlet.
^ Poll conducted for KHQ-TV .
^ Poll conducted for Citizens United , a conservative non-profit organization.
^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute.
^ This poll was sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund.
^ This poll was sponsored by Smiley's campaign.
References
^ a b Newsdesk, Kiro Radio (May 17, 2021). "Senator Patty Murray announces reelection campaign" . My Northwest .
^ "Sen. Patty Murray, Tiffany Smiley advance in Washington Senate primary" . PBS NewsHour . August 2, 2022. Retrieved September 30, 2022 .
^ "Democrats scramble to avert shock Senate loss in Washington state" . Politico . October 26, 2022.
^ Gutman, David (November 8, 2022). "Patty Murray defeats Tiffany Smiley in U.S. Senate race" . The Seattle Times . Retrieved November 8, 2022 .
^ "Tiffany Smiley concedes U.S. Senate race to Sen. Patty Murray" . KOMO News . Sinclair Broadcasting Group. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 10, 2022 .
^ Shabad, Rebecca (January 3, 2023). "Sen. Patty Murray becomes first female president pro tempore" . NBC News . Retrieved April 3, 2023 .
^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r "PRIMARY 2022 Candidate List" . voter.votewa.gov . Retrieved June 2, 2022 .
^ "Republican Tiffany Smiley says she is running for Patty Murray's Seat in U.S Senate" . The Seattle Times . April 14, 2021. Archived from the original on April 15, 2021.
^ a b "Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World" .
^ a b "U.S. Senate Candidates" .
^ a b c d "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senators Duckworth and Murray for Re-Election" . End Citizens United . September 9, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2021 .
^ a b "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements" . feministmajoritypac.org . Retrieved April 9, 2022 .
^ a b "Giffords Endorses Senator Patty Murray for the US Senate" . www.giffords.org . Giffords . December 9, 2021. Retrieved December 13, 2021 .
^ a b "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements" . www.jewishdems.org . November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021 .
^ a b "2022 Endorsements" . www.kcdems.org . Retrieved July 29, 2022 .
^ a b Courtnee Connon (June 10, 2021). "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of U.S. Senate Endorsements in the 2022 Election Cycle" . League of Conservation Voters .
^ a b "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Slate of Reproductive Freedom Champions for the U.S. House and Senate" . NARAL Pro-Choice America . July 13, 2021.
^ a b "NWPC 2022 Endorsed Candidates" . National Women's Political Caucus .
^ a b Turrentine, Jeff (March 8, 2022). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses These Candidates in the 2022 Elections" . Natural Resources Defense Council . Retrieved March 15, 2022 .
^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements" . Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022 .
^ a b "Sierra Club Endorsements" . March 19, 2021.
^ a b "Federal Endorsed Candidates" . Women's Political Committee .
^ a b "2022 Washington Election Endorsements" . seiu775.org . June 30, 2022. Retrieved July 29, 2022 .
^ a b "Washington unions endorse mostly Democrats, capital gains tax" . www.thecentersquare.org . May 23, 2022. Retrieved May 23, 2022 .
^ a b "The Times recommends: Patty Murray for U.S. Senate" . The Seattle Times . July 15, 2022. Retrieved July 16, 2022 .
^ "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August 2, 2022, Primary Election" . The Stranger . July 14, 2022. Retrieved July 29, 2022 .
^ a b Steinhauser, Paul (April 12, 2022). "Nikki Haley endorses Washington State's Tiffany Smiley as she works to broaden GOP's midterm Senate map" . Fox News .
^ a b Ellenbecker, Lauren (February 12, 2022). "Pasco native Tiffany Smiley challenges Murray for seat" .
^ a b "NRSC Chairman Rick Scott on America's Newsroom promotes Tiffany Smiley in the 2022 midterms" . YouTube . January 11, 2022.
^ a b Newsmaker Interview (April 23, 2021). "Tiffany Smiley: Patty Murray is "Carrying the Water for the Senate Democrats, She's not Fighting for Washington Families." " . Shift WA .
^ a b "McMorris Rodgers endorses Tiffany Smiley for U.S. Senate" . YakTriNews . April 16, 2021. Archived from the original on April 16, 2021.
^ a b Fox News (April 28, 2022). "Stefanik gets involved in Washington Senate race against Patty Murray" . Fox News .
^ a b "Spokane basketball legend John Stockton endorses GOP candidate Tiffany Smiley in Senate race" .
^ a b "Benton County Republican Party Endorsements 2021" . www.bcrpwa.com . June 3, 2021. Retrieved April 30, 2022 .
^ "2022 KCGOP Primary Endorsed Candidates" . kcgop.org . Archived from the original on August 16, 2022. Retrieved August 16, 2022 .
^ a b "Stand for America PAC Endorsements" . Retrieved April 30, 2022 .
^ a b Lynnwood Times Staff (August 21, 2021). "WSRP endorses Tiffany Smiley for U.S. Senate" . Lynnwood Times .
^ a b "Winning For Women PAC Announces Endorsements in Senate, House Races" . February 14, 2022. Retrieved April 30, 2022 .
^ "August 2, 2022 Primary - U.S. Senator" . Secretary of State of Washington . August 2, 2022. Archived from the original on August 19, 2022. Retrieved August 9, 2022 .
^ "2022 Primary Results Certification" (PDF) . Secretary of State of Washington . Retrieved December 3, 2024 .
^ Brunner, Jim (September 16, 2022). "Debates in WA set for U.S. Senate, House, secretary of state races" . The Seattle Times . Retrieved September 28, 2022 .
^ Gutman, David (October 14, 2022). "2nd Patty Murray, Tiffany Smiley event announced in WA Senate race" . The Seattle Times . Archived from the original on October 24, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022 .
^ "2022 Senate Race ratings" . Retrieved October 18, 2022 .
^ "Senate ratings" . Inside Elections . Retrieved January 18, 2021 .
^ "2022 Senate" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved January 28, 2021 .
^ "Washington Senate Race 2022" . Politico . April 1, 2022.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2022" . RCP . January 10, 2022.
^ "2022 Election Forecast" . Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022 .
^ "2022 Election Forecast" . DDHQ . July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022 .
^ "2022 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022 .
^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast" . The Economist . September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022 .
^ "Remarks by Vice President Harris at Finance Event with Patty Murray" . October 27, 2022.
^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES" . Retrieved November 1, 2022 .
^ "The Olympian endorses federal and state candidates" . The Olympian . October 20, 2022.
^ "TNT endorses Murray, Strickland, Kilmer and Schrier in WA" . The News Tribune . October 22, 2022.
^ "Murray or Smiley? Here's our choice in this contentious, WA race for U.S. Senate" . Tri-City Herald . Archived from the original on November 4, 2022. Retrieved July 18, 2023 .
^ "Sen. Marsha Blackburn Announces Support For Tiffany Smiley For Senate" . January 25, 2022.
^ a b "Big names step up support for Tiffany Smiley as polls show 'dead heat' in senate race" . November 3, 2022.
^ "U.S. Senator and Decorated Veteran Tom Cotton Endorses Smiley for Senate" . November 11, 2021.
^ "Hundreds attend Tiffany Smiley's New Mom in Town bus tour in Snohomish County" . November 7, 2022.
^ "MD Governor Hogan Endorses Tiffany Smiley" . Smiley for Washington . July 22, 2022. Archived from the original on December 4, 2022.
^ "Governor Kristi Noem Endorses Tiffany Smiley for Senate" . June 27, 2022.
^ "Log Cabin Announces Third Round of 2022 Candidate Endorsements" . www.logcabin.org . October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 18, 2022 .
^ Real Clear Politics
^ FiveThirtyEight
^ 270ToWin
^ Moore Information Group (R)
^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
^ Triton Polling & Research
^ a b Moore Information Group (R)
^ KAConsulting (R)
^ co/efficient (R)
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ SurveyUSA
^ Civiqs
^ Emerson College
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ OnMessage Inc. (R)
^ Strategies 360
^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
^ Elway Research
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
^ a b McLaughlin & Associates (R)
^ Elway Research
^ SurveyUSA
^ The Tarrance Group (R)
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ SurveyUSA
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Elway Research
^ "Official Canvass of the Returns" (PDF) . Secretary of State of Washington . Retrieved December 3, 2024 .
^ https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20221108/us-senator_bycounty.html
^ Results (PDF) . sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 29, 2022.
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