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2022 Alaska gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Alaska gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout44.40% Decrease
 
Candidate Mike Dunleavy Les Gara Bill Walker
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Running mate Nancy Dahlstrom Jessica Cook Heidi Drygas
Popular vote 132,632 63,851 54,668
Percentage 50.29% 24.21% 20.73%
Dunleavy:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Gara:      40–50%
Walker:      30–40%      40–50%
Governor before election

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

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The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.[1]

Following voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 Alaska elections, this was the first gubernatorial election in Alaska held under the new election process. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022,[2] and the top four candidates advanced to the general election.[3]

In addition to Dunleavy, Democratic former state representative Les Gara, Independent former governor Bill Walker, and Republican Kenai Peninsula Borough mayor Charlie Pierce advanced to the general election.[4] In the general election, Dunleavy received the majority of votes in the first round, preventing an instant runoff.

Primary election

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Declined

Libertarian Party

Eliminated in primary

  • William S. "Billy" Toien, nominee for governor in 2010 and 2018[19]
    • Running mate: Shirley Rainbolt[19]

Alaskan Independence Party

Eliminated in primary

Independents

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Dunleavy
(R) 		Les
Gara
(D) 		Charlie
Pierce
(R) 		Bill
Walker
(I) 		Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[22] July 20–25, 2022 1,253 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 22% 5% 23% 9%[c] –
Lake Research Partners (D)[23][A] May 5–11, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 24% 5% 18% 3% 10%

Results

Primary election results[11][24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican
76,534 40.43
Democratic
43,660 23.06
Independent
43,111 22.77
Republican
  • Charlie Pierce
  • Edie Grunwald
 		12,458 6.58
Republican
7,307 3.86
Independence
  • John Howe
  • Shellie Wyatt
 1,702 0.90
Republican
  • Bruce Walden
  • Tanya Lange
 1,661 0.88
Libertarian
  • William S. Toien
  • Shirley Rainbolt
 1,381 0.73
Republican
  • David Haeg
  • Waynette Coleman
 1,139 0.60
Independent
  • William Nemec
  • Ronnie Ostrem
 347 0.18
Total votes 188,626 100.00

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[25] Likely R July 26, 2022
Inside Elections[26] Likely R July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] Likely R June 29, 2022
Politico[28] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[29] Likely R January 10, 2022
Fox News[30] Likely R May 12, 2022
538[31] Likely R August 25, 2022
Elections Daily[32] Likely R November 7, 2022

Debates

2022 Alaska gubernatorial debates
No. Date Host Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn  
Mike Dunleavy Bill Walker Les Gara Charlie Pierce
1 October 11, 2022 Civic and Convention Center [33] P P P P

Endorsements

Mike Dunleavy (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Les Gara (D)

Statewide officials

State legislators

Organizations

Christopher Kurka (R)

Individuals

Charlie Pierce (R)

State legislators

  • Lora Reinbold, state senator (2019–present) and state representative (2013–2019)[41]

Organizations

Bill Walker (I)

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Declined to endorse

State legislators

Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
count 		Mike
Dunleavy
(R) 		Les
Gara
(D) 		Charlie
Pierce
(R) 		Bill
Walker
(I) 		Undecided /
Not Ranked
Dittman Research[47] October 21–25, 2022 403 (LV) – 1 47% 25% 4% 23% —
2 51% 25% Elim 24% —
Alaska Survey Research[48] September 25–27, 2022 1,282 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 43% 28% 7% 21% —
2 48% 28% Elim 23% —
3 53% 47% Elim Elim —
3*[d] 52% Elim Elim 48% —
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[49][B] September 6–11, 2022 1,050 (LV) [e] N/A[f] 45% 24% 6% 17% 8% U
1 49% 26% 7% 19% 8% NR
2 54% 26% Elim[g] 20% 10% NR
3 59% 41% Elim Elim[h] 13% NR
Alaska Survey Research[50] July 2–5, 2022 1,201 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 44% 26% 11% 20% —
2 51% 26% Elim 23% —
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
count 		Mike
Dunleavy
(R) 		Les
Gara
(D) 		Natasha
von Imhof
(R) 		Bill
Walker
(I) 		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[51] October 22–27, 2021 969 (RV) ± 3.2% 1 43% 22% 8% 28% —
2 46% 24% Elim 30% —
3 49% Elim Elim 51% —

Mike Dunleavy vs. Les Gara

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Dunleavy (R) 		Les
Gara (D) 		Undecided
Hays Research Group (I)[52][C] July 22–24, 2022 613 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 45% —

Mike Dunleavy vs. Bill Walker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Dunleavy (R) 		Bill
Walker (I) 		Undecided
Hays Research Group (I)[53][C] July 22–24, 2022 613 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 50% —

Results

2022 Alaska gubernatorial election[54]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
132,632 50.29% −1.15%
Democratic
63,851 24.21% −20.20%
Independent
54,668 20.73% +18.70%
Republican
  • Charlie Pierce
  • Edie Grunwald (withdrew)[a]
 11,817 4.48% N/A
Write-in 784 0.30% +0.09%
Total votes 263,752 100.0%
Turnout 266,943 44.40% −5.43%
Registered electors 601,161
Republican hold

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Independent

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Suspended her campaign and endorsed Dunleavy on October 25, 2022 after allegations of sexual harassment against Pierce but remained on the ballot.[10]
  2. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Howe and Kurka with 3%; Toien with 2%; Haeg with 1%; Nemec and Walden with 0%
  4. ^ Hypothetical scenario with Dunleavy and Walker as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. ^ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
  6. ^ Standard polling question.
  7. ^ Pierce eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 70% to Dunleavy, 7% to Walker, 3% to Gara, and 20% not ranked further.
  8. ^ Walker eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 67% to Gara, 13% to Dunleavy, and 20% not ranked further.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Gara's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign

References

  1. ^ Bohrer, Becky (November 25, 2022). "Mike Dunleavy is 1st Alaska governor reelected since '98". Associated Press. Retrieved November 25, 2022.
  2. ^ "Alaska Division of Elections, Primary Election Info". Archived from the original on May 4, 2022. Retrieved December 10, 2021.
  3. ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (November 18, 2020). "Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2". KTOO (FM). Archived from the original on November 18, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  4. ^ "Live Alaska Governor Election Results 2022 – NBC News". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  5. ^ a b Brooks, James (August 13, 2021). "Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy will run for re-election in 2022". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 14, 2021.
  6. ^ "Alaska Governor Picks Nancy Dahlstrom as Running Mate". US News. AP. May 23, 2022. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  7. ^ "Alaska Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer will not run for reelection in 2022". Anchorage Daily News.
  8. ^ "Borough mayor files bid for Alaska governor". KDLL Public Radio for the Central Kenai Peninsula. January 21, 2022.
  9. ^ Poux, Sabine; Soldotna, KDLL- (March 9, 2022). "Charlie Pierce picks Edie Grunwald as running mate in Alaska governor's race".
  10. ^ Maguire, Sean (October 25, 2022). "Edie Grunwald suspends campaign as lieutenant governor candidate over Pierce sexual harassment allegations". Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  11. ^ a b c d e f g "2022 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  12. ^ a b Kitchenman, Andrew (November 29, 2021). "Conservative Wasilla Rep. Kurka launches bid for Alaska governor". Alaska Public Media. Archived from the original on November 30, 2021. Retrieved November 30, 2021.
  13. ^ "Republican candidate for Alaska governor Christopher Kurka chooses Homer man as running mate". Anchorage Daily News.
  14. ^ Gunzburger, Ron. "Online Guide to Alaska Elections, Candidates & Politics". Politics1.
  15. ^ a b c "Democratic governor candidate Les Gara picks teacher from Palmer as his running mate". Anchorage Daily News.
  16. ^ Brooks, James (February 15, 2022). "Anchorage Sen. Natasha von Imhof will not run for reelection or other office in 2022". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  17. ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (August 20, 2021). "Former state Rep. Les Gara becomes fourth candidate for Alaska's governor". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "Gara and Walker begin 2022 campaigns for governor to unseat Dunleavy". Anchorage Daily News.
  19. ^ a b c d Brooks, James (August 17, 2021). "Former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker will run again for governor in 2022 as an independent". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 17, 2021.
  20. ^ a b c Coleman, J. Miles (March 11, 2021). "2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline – Sabato's Crystal Ball".
  21. ^ "Former US House candidate Alyse Galvin to run for Alaska Legislature". December 28, 2021.
  22. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  23. ^ Lake Research Partners (D)
  24. ^ "August 16, 2022 Primary Election Summary Report - OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  25. ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  26. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  27. ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  28. ^ "Alaska Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  29. ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  30. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  31. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  32. ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  33. ^ Youtube
  34. ^ Mizelle, Shawna (December 28, 2021). "Trump endorses Alaska Gov. Dunleavy for reelection -- as long as he doesn't back Sen. Murkowski in 2022". CNN. Retrieved December 29, 2021.
  35. ^ a b "Trump to rally for Palin, Dunleavy, Tshibaka in Alaska". AP. June 29, 2022. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  36. ^ a b "Charlie Pierce recieves [sic] Republican endorsement in governor's race". KINY. April 25, 2022. Retrieved April 27, 2022.
  37. ^ "Alaska Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  38. ^ "NRA-PVF Endorses Gov. Dunleavy in Alaska Primary". nrapvf.org. July 19, 2022. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  39. ^ "Notes from the trail: Mark Begich endorses Chris Constant for Congress, Les Gara has a barbecue with Vic Fischer". May 19, 2022.
  40. ^ "Notes from the trail: Why didn't Palin cheer for Mayor Dave Bronson during the Trump Save America rally?". July 12, 2022.
  41. ^ "Sen. Lora Reinbold endorses Charlie Pierce for governor". July 25, 2022.
  42. ^ a b c Hopkins, Grier; Josephson, Andy; Spohnholz, Ivy; Wool, Adam (August 9, 2022). "OPINION: Walker has the leadership Alaska needs". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 10, 2022.
  43. ^ "Notes from the trail: Walker picks up new co-chairs". July 23, 2022.
  44. ^ ""I'm pleased to endorse Bill and Heidi. They are trustworthy, hardworking, well-informed, experienced, and collaborative, and aim to put all Alaskans, including children and First Peoples, on a path to fiscal stability, improved quality of life, and a bright future." ~Santa Claus".
  45. ^ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola". Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  46. ^ a b "Bill Walker's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  47. ^ Dittman Research
  48. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  49. ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
  50. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  51. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  52. ^ Hays Research Group (I) Archived August 1, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  53. ^ Hays Research Group (I) Archived August 1, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  54. ^ "State of Alaska | 2022 GENERAL ELECTION | Election Summary Report | November 8, 2022 | OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 18, 2022. Retrieved November 22, 2022.

Official campaign websites

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