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2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota

2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
 
Nominee Amy Klobuchar Kurt Bills
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Popular vote 1,854,595 867,874
Percentage 65.23% 30.53%
Klobuchar:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bills:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota
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This article is part of a series about
Amy Klobuchar
U.S. Senator from Minnesota
Presidential campaign

United States Senate

The 2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar faced Republican State Representative Kurt Bills. Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Bills by almost one million votes and carrying all but two of the state's 87 counties by double digits, only narrowly losing the counties of Pipestone and Rock in the state's southwest corner.[1] This election marked the first time since 1996 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected and the first time since 1976 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected to this seat.

Background

Incumbent Amy Klobuchar was first elected in 2006 to succeed the retiring DFL incumbent Mark Dayton. She beat Republican nominee Mark Kennedy, 58% to 38%. Klobuchar served as Minnesota's only senator between January 3 and July 7, 2009, due to the contested results of Minnesota's senatorial election held the previous year, finally decided in favor of DFLer Al Franken.

DFL primary

The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012.[2]

Candidates

Declared

  • Dick Franson, perennial candidate[3]
  • Amy Klobuchar, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Jack Shepard, dentist, convicted felon, fugitive and perennial candidate[4][5]
  • Darryl Stanton

Results

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) 183,702 90.79
Democratic (DFL) Dick Franson 6,832 3.38
Democratic (DFL) Jack Shepard 6,638 3.28
Democratic (DFL) Darryl Stanton 5,160 2.55
Total votes 202,332 100

Republican primary

The Republican Party of Minnesota held its nominating convention in May 2012 and held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012.[2]

Candidates

Declared

  • Kurt Bills, state representative; won May 2012 convention nomination[7]
  • David Carlson, former Marine Corps sergeant; candidate in August 2012 primary
  • Bob Carney Jr., inventor, independent businessman; finished 2nd in 2010 GOP primary for Governor of Minnesota, candidate in August 2012 primary[8]

Withdrew

  • Joe Arwood, St. Bonifacius city councilman; withdrew before May 2012 convention
  • Pete Hegseth, executive director of Vets for Freedom; withdrew after May 2012 convention
  • Anthony Hernandez, former state senate candidate; withdrew before May 2012 convention to run for Congress against Betty McCollum
  • Dan Severson, former state representative; withdrew after May 2012 convention

Results

Results by county:
  Bills
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Carlson
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kurt Bills 63,380 51.12
Republican David Carlson 43,847 35.37
Republican Bob Carney, Jr. 16,755 13.51
Total votes 123,982 100

Independence primary

Campaign

The Independence Party of Minnesota did not plan to run a candidate in the general election. Party chairman Mark Jenkins said in November 2011 that he saw the Senate election as "a distraction from having our best and brightest engaged in state legislative races".[9] At the party's convention in June 2012, neither candidate was endorsed. Williams won a majority of the votes and came within two votes of the required 60% needed for the party's endorsement. He proceeded with his run for the Senate but the party focused its attention on state legislative races.[10]

Candidates

Results

Independence Party primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independence Stephen Williams 3,068 59.67
Independence Glen R. Anderson Menze 2,074 40.33
Total votes 5,142 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

On August 29 Klobuchar and Bills held their second debate at the State Fair, sponsored by MPR News. Their third debate, on September 16 in Duluth, was about the nation's struggle with deficit spending and unemployment. The audience was assembled by the Duluth Area Chamber of Commerce and Duluth News Tribune.[12] External links

  • Complete video at Minnesota Public Radio, second debate, August 29, 2012
  • Audio from Minnesota Public Radio, third debate, September 18, 2012

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Current Through
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) $6,301,413 $2,530,567 $5,393,798 $0 July 25, 2012
Kurt Bills (R) $394,547 $388,720 $5,841 $0 July 25, 2012
Source: Federal Election Commission[13]

Top contributors

This section lists the top contributors by employer. These organizations themselves didn't donate, but these numbers include donations from their PACs, members, employees, owners, and their immediate families.

Amy Klobuchar Contribution Kurt Bills Contribution
Dorsey & Whitney $61,100 Liberty PAC $10,000
Target Corp $56,050 Craw $10,000
General Mills $51,750 Primera Technology $10,000
U.S. Bancorp $51,139 Minnesota Limited Pipeline $7,500
Robins, Kaplan, Miller & Ciresi $49,150 Ameriprise Financial $5,000
Medtronic Inc. $41,025 Bachmann for Congress $5,000
Toys R Us $36,500 Exactdrive $5,000
Leonard, Street & Deinard $34,350 New Spark Holdings $5,000
Comcast Corp $33,623 TACPAC $5,000
Wells Fargo $32,400 Twin City Fan Companies $5,000
Source: OpenSecrets,[14] Current through: March 9, 2012

Top industries

Amy Klobuchar Contribution Kurt Bills Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $989,929 Leadership PACs $17,850
Retired $447,082 Republican/Conservative $13,750
Leadership PACs $302,150 Financial Institutions $13,250
Lobbyists $282,430 Real Estate $12,550
Financial Institutions $269,033 Retired $10,350
Entertainment industry $256,711 Energy Industry $10,250
Women's Issues $196,866 Electronics Manufacturing $10,000
Retail industry $181,850 Misc. Business $9,450
Commercial Banks $159,139 Manufacturing & Distributing $7,850
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $149,725 Computers/Internet $7,350
Source: OpenSecrets,[15] Current through: March 9, 2012

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Solid D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[18] Safe D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[19] Safe D November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Kurt
Bills (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] May 31 – June 3, 2012 973 ±3.1% 55% 29% — 16%
Survey USA[21] July 17–19, 2012 552 ±4.3% 55% 31% 5% 9%
KSTP/Survey USA[22] September 6–9, 2012 551 ±4.2% 55% 34% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[23] September 10–11, 2012 824 ±3.4% 55% 36% — 10%
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon[24] September 17–19, 2012 800 ±3.5% 57% 28% 7% 8%
Public Policy Polling[25] October 5–8, 2012 937 ±3.2% 57% 31% — 12%
SurveyUSA/KSTP[26] October 12–14, 2012 550 ±4.2% 58% 30% 5% 7%
St. Cloud State U.[27] October 15–21, 2012 600 ±5% 63% 36% 1% —
Rasmussen Reports[28] October 21, 2012 500 ±4.5% 56% 33% 2% 9%
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon[29] October 23–25, 2012 800 ±3.5% 65% 22% — 13%
SurveyUSA[30] October 26–28, 2012 574 ±4.1% 60% 29% 4% 7%
KSTP/SurveyUSA[31] November 1–3, 2012 556 ±4.2% 60% 30% 3% 7%
Public Policy Polling[32] November 2–3, 2012 1,164 ±2.9% 62% 32% — 6%
Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Michele
Bachmann 		Laura
Brod 		Norm
Coleman 		Chip
Cravaack 		Tom
Emmer 		John
Kline 		Erik
Paulsen 		Tim
Pawlenty 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[33] December 4–5, 2010 387 ±5.0% 36% 4% 14% 7% 6% 5% 2% 20% 6%

General election

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Joe
Arwood (R) 		Other Undecided
Survey USA[34] November 2–6, 2011 543 ±4.3% 56% 22% — 22%
Public Policy Polling[35] January 21–22, 2012 1,236 ±2.8% 55% 30% — 15%
Survey USA[36] January 31 – February 2, 2012 542 ±4.2% 59% 28% — 14%
Public Policy Polling[20] May 31 – June 3, 2012 973 ±3.1% 56% 29% — 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Michele
Bachmann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[37] December 4–5, 2010 949 ±3.2% 56% 39% — 4%
Public Policy Polling[38] May 27–30, 2011 1,179 ±2.9% 57% 37% — 5%
Public Policy Polling[35] January 21–22, 2012 1,236 ±2.8% 58% 35% — 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Norm
Coleman (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[37] December 4–5, 2010 949 ±3.2% 54% 40% — 6%
Survey USA[34] November 2–6, 2011 543 ±4.3% 50% 37% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Tom
Emmer (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[37] December 4–5, 2010 949 ±3.2% 56% 38% — 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Pete
Hegseth (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] May 31 – June 3, 2012 973 ±3.1% 56% 28% — 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Anthony
Hernandez (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35] January 21–22, 2012 1,236 ±2.8% 55% 29% — 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Erik
Paulsen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[37] December 4–5, 2010 949 ±3.2% 52% 34% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Tim
Pawlenty (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[37] December 4–5, 2010 949 ±3.2% 53% 43% — 4%
Public Policy Polling[38] May 27–30, 2011 1,179 ±2.9% 54% 41% — 5%
Survey USA[34] November 2–6, 2011 543 ±4.3% 49% 37% — 14%
Public Policy Polling[35] January 21–22, 2012 1,236 ±2.8% 54% 39% — 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Dan
Severson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[38] May 27–30, 2011 1,179 ±2.9% 56% 28% — 16%
Survey USA[34] November 2–6, 2011 543 ±4.3% 55% 23% — 22%
Public Policy Polling[35] January 21–22, 2012 1,236 ±2.8% 55% 32% — 13%
Survey USA[36] January 31 – February 2, 2012 542 ±4.3% 56% 29% — 15%
Public Policy Polling[20] May 31 – June 3, 2012 973 ±3.1% 55% 27% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Dave
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[38] May 27–30, 2011 1,179 ±2.9% 55% 28% — 17%

Results

United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2012[39]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) 1,854,595 65.23% +7.17%
Republican Kurt Bills 867,974 30.53% −7.41%
Independence Stephen Williams 73,539 2.59% −0.64%
Grassroots Tim Davis 30,531 1.07% N/A
Open Progressives Michael Cavlan 13,986 0.49% N/A
Write-in 2,582 0.09% +0.05%
Total votes 2,843,207 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Klobuchar won all 8 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.[40]

District Klobuchar Bills Representative
1st 62.45% 32.22% Tim Walz
2nd 61.73% 34.4% John Kline
3rd 62.6% 34.33% Erik Paulsen
4th 71.26% 24.66% Betty McCollum
5th 78.71% 17.09% Keith Ellison
6th 58.59% 37.15% Michele Bachmann
7th 61.23% 34.15% Collin Peterson
8th 65.32% 30.64% Rick Nolan

See also

References

  1. ^ "2012 General Election for U.S. Senator" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 11, 2019.
  2. ^ a b "Minnesota Office of the Secretary of State : Important General Election Dates". Archived from the original on July 13, 2012. Retrieved June 20, 2012.
  3. ^ Grow, Doug (August 22, 2011). "GOP ready to go after Sen. Klobuchar but has a problem: no first-tier candidate". MinnPost.com. Archived from the original on September 19, 2011. Retrieved August 26, 2011.
  4. ^ "Convicted felon Jack Shepard, exiled in Italy, files again to run for U.S. Senate". MinnPost. June 1, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
  5. ^ "Fugitive U.S. Senate candidate Shepard sues Huffington Post, says he's not an arsonist". MinnPost. June 27, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
  6. ^ a b c "Statewide Results for U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State. August 15, 2012. Archived from the original on August 24, 2012. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  7. ^ "Bills wins GOP nod for U.S. Senate". Star Tribune.
  8. ^ Jr, Bob Carney. "OPINION EXCHANGE | Minnesota's cookie-cutter GOP". Star Tribune.
  9. ^ "Minn. Independence Party not in 2012 Senate race". Real Clear Politics. November 12, 2011. Retrieved November 15, 2011.
  10. ^ "Independence Party stays out of U.S. Senate race, opposes constitutional amendments". Politics in Minnesota. June 25, 2011. Retrieved July 17, 2011.
  11. ^ a b Condon, Patrick (June 6, 2012). "Minn. 3rd party gets contested Senate primary". Star Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved June 11, 2012.[permanent dead link]
  12. ^ "Klobuchar, Bills debate unemployment, deficit". MPR News. September 18, 2012.
  13. ^ "Federal Election Commission". Summary Reports Search. July 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 6, 2008. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  14. ^ "Top Contributors". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012.
  15. ^ "Top Industries". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  16. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  17. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  18. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  19. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  20. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  21. ^ Survey USA
  22. ^ KSTP/Survey USA Archived September 17, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  23. ^ Public Policy Polling
  24. ^ Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ SurveyUSA/KSTP Archived October 21, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  27. ^ St. Cloud State U. [permanent dead link]
  28. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  29. ^ Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
  30. ^ SurveyUSA
  31. ^ KSTP/SurveyUSA Archived November 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  32. ^ Public Policy Polling
  33. ^ Public Policy Polling
  34. ^ a b c d Survey USA
  35. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  36. ^ a b Survey USA
  37. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  38. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  39. ^ "2012 General Election Results". Archived from the original on April 29, 2016.
  40. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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