2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota
The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota , concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election , as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections . Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its increasingly favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election , along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests , originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. However, every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.
Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008 . The primary took place on August 11.[ 1]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Steve Carlson, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and write-in candidate for president in 2016[ 3] [ 4] [ 5]
Ahmad Hassan[ 5]
Paula Overby, Green Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[ 6] [ 5]
Christopher Seymore Sr.[ 5]
Withdrawn
Endorsements
Tina Smith
U.S. senators
Amy Klobuchar , U.S. senator from Minnesota; former 2020 presidential candidate[ 9]
Organizations
Labor unions
Results
Results by county: Smith—>90%
Smith—80–90%
Smith—70–80%
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
John L. Berman[ 5]
Bob Carney Jr.[ 5] [ 33]
Cynthia Gail, art teacher[ 34]
James Reibestein[ 5]
Withdrawn
Declined
Endorsements
Jason Lewis
U.S. President
Political organizations
Results
Results by county: Lewis—80–90%
Lewis—70–80%
Lewis—60–70%
Lewis—50–60%
Other candidates
Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis
Nominee
Results
Legal Marijuana Now
Nominee
Primary results
County Results for Kevin O'Connor:
Independent write-in candidate
Declared
George Dennis Jr.[ 47]
Josh D. Ondich, perennial candidate[ 48] [ 49]
General election
Debate
Two general election debates were held. The first, on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis.[ 50] The second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and attended only by Lewis.[ 51]
Predictions
Endorsements
Tina Smith (DFL)
U.S. senators
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Jason Lewis (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Other individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tina Smith (DFL)
Jason Lewis (R)
Other
Undecided
Research Co. [ 87]
October 31 – November 1, 2020
450 (LV)
4.6%
50%
39%
2%[ a]
9%
Data for Progress [ 88]
October 27 – November 1, 2020
1,259 (LV)
± 2.8%
54%
44%
2%[ b]
–
Swayable [ 89]
October 23 – November 1, 2020
430 (LV)
± 6.1%
55%
46%
–
–
Public Policy Polling [ 90]
October 29–30, 2020
770 (V)
–
51%
42%
–
6%
Targoz Market Research /PollSmart [ 91]
October 25–30, 2020
1,138 (LV)
–
53%
44%
3%[ c]
–
St. Cloud State University [ 92]
October 10–29, 2020
372 (A)
± 6.7%
53%
36%
–
–
SurveyUSA [ 93]
October 23–27, 2020
649 (LV)
± 4.3%
45%
42%
3%[ d]
10%
Gravis Marketing [ 94]
October 24–26, 2020
657 (LV)
± 3.8%
53%
39%
–
8%
Civiqs /Daily Kos [ 95]
October 17–20, 2020
840 (LV)
± 3.6%
54%
43%
2%[ e]
1%
SurveyUSA [ 96]
October 16–20, 2020
625 (LV)
± 5%
43%
42%
3%[ d]
12%
Change Research [ 97]
October 12–15, 2020[ f]
1,021 (LV)
± 3.1%
48%
44%
4%[ g]
5%
SurveyUSA [ 98]
October 1–6, 2020
929 (LV)
± 3.9%
44%
37%
4%[ h]
16%
Suffolk University [ 99]
September 20–24, 2020
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
45%
35%
6%[ i]
14%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [ 100]
September 21–23, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3.5%
49%
41%
–
10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [ 101]
September 12–17, 2020
718 (LV)
± 3.7%
51%
36%
2%[ j]
11%
CBS News /YouGov [ 102]
September 9–11, 2020
1,087 (LV)
± 3.9%
47%
40%
2%[ a]
10%
Siena College /NYT Upshot [ 103]
September 8–10, 2020
814 (LV)
± 3.9%
49%
40%
0%[ k]
11%[ l]
SurveyUSA [ 104]
September 4–7, 2020
553 (LV)
± 5.2%
47%
36%
3%[ d]
14%
Public Policy Polling [ 105]
September 3–4, 2020
877 (V)
± 3.3%
49%
41%
3%[ m]
7%
Harper Polling (R) [ 106] [ A]
August 30 – September 1, 2020
501 (LV)
± 4.4%
43%
41%
–
10%
Emerson College [ 107]
August 8–10, 2020
733 (LV)
± 3.6%
48%
45%
–
7%
Public Policy Polling (D) [ 108] [ B]
July 22–23, 2020
1,218 (V)
± 3.2%
48%
39%
–
13%
Harper Polling (R) [ 106] [ A]
May 26–28, 2020
510 (LV)
–
46%
35%
–
20%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Results
Swing by county
Democratic — +5-7.5%
Democratic — +2.5-5%
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
Republican — +7.5-10%
Republican — +10-12.5%
Republican — +12.5-15%
Republican — +>15%
Trend by county
Democratic — +5-7.5%
Democratic — +2.5-5%
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
Republican — +7.5-10%
Republican — +10-12.5%
Republican — +12.5-15%
Republican — +>15%
By county
By county
County[ 112]
Tina Smith DFL
Jason Lewis Republican
Kevin O'ConnorLMN
Oliver SteinbergG–LC
Write-in
Margin
Total votes
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Aitkin
3,474
35.29
5,761
58.52
462
4.69
143
1.45
5
0.05
-2,287
-23.23
9,845
Anoka
89,416
43.24
98,043
47.41
15,385
7.44
3,842
1.86
118
0.06
-8,627
-4.17
206,804
Becker
6,370
33.49
11,274
59.28
1,069
5.62
297
1.56
9
0.05
-4,904
-25.78
19,019
Beltrami
9,987
41.88
11,468
48.09
1,804
7.57
564
2.37
22
0.09
-1,481
-6.21
23,845
Benton
6,835
31.39
12,915
59.32
1,539
7.07
465
2.14
17
0.08
-6,080
-27.93
21,771
Big Stone
1,106
37.52
1,637
55.53
163
5.53
39
1.32
3
0.10
-531
-18.01
2,948
Blue Earth
16,527
46.78
15,040
42.57
2,847
8.06
871
2.47
41
0.12
1,487
4.21
35,326
Brown
4,808
33.23
8,736
60.38
690
4.77
224
1.55
10
0.07
-3,928
-27.15
14,468
Carlton
9,577
48.01
8,906
44.65
1,092
5.47
361
1.81
11
0.06
671
3.36
19,947
Carver
27,616
42.16
33,623
51.33
3,292
5.03
928
1.42
38
0.06
-6,007
-9.17
65,497
Cass
5,913
32.66
10,877
60.08
966
5.33
333
1.84
16
0.09
-4,964
-27.42
18,105
Chippewa
2,270
34.77
3,807
58.32
358
5.48
90
1.38
3
0.05
-1,537
-23.54
6,528
Chisago
11,014
32.62
19,700
58.34
2,340
6.93
692
2.05
20
0.06
-8,686
-25.72
33,766
Clay
15,136
47.99
13,308
42.20
2,348
7.45
716
2.27
29
0.09
1,828
5.80
31,537
Clearwater
1,224
26.50
3,078
66.65
242
5.24
69
1.49
5
0.11
-1,854
-40.15
4,618
Cook
2,344
63.08
1,162
31.27
133
3.58
73
1.96
4
0.11
1,182
31.81
3,716
Cottonwood
1,794
29.94
3,796
63.35
321
5.36
80
1.33
1
0.02
-2,002
-33.41
5,992
Crow Wing
12,964
32.76
23,792
60.11
2,032
5.13
774
1.96
16
0.04
-10,828
-27.36
39,578
Dakota
131,394
50.89
107,117
41.49
15,318
5.93
4,162
1.61
196
0.08
24,277
9.40
258,187
Dodge
4,013
33.45
6,924
57.71
806
6.72
248
2.07
6
0.05
-2,911
-24.26
11,997
Douglas
7,617
32.03
14,775
62.13
1,055
4.44
321
1.35
14
0.06
-7,158
-30.10
23,782
Faribault
2,531
32.66
4,624
59.66
444
5.73
148
1.91
3
0.04
-2,093
-27.01
7,750
Fillmore
4,696
39.22
6,440
53.79
625
5.22
205
1.71
6
0.05
-1,744
-14.57
11,972
Freeborn
6,797
41.09
8,364
50.57
1,057
6.39
313
1.89
10
0.06
-1,567
-9.47
16,541
Goodhue
11,186
39.45
15,171
53.50
1,486
5.24
489
1.72
25
0.09
-3,985
-14.05
28,357
Grant
1,349
37.51
2,044
56.84
163
4.53
39
1.08
1
0.03
-695
-19.33
3,596
Hennepin
478,129
64.46
209,754
28.28
41,282
5.56
12,130
1.63
496
0.07
268,375
36.18
741,791
Houston
4,478
39.96
5,778
51.56
700
6.25
243
2.17
8
0.07
-1,300
-11.60
11,207
Hubbard
4,281
33.43
7,713
60.23
572
4.47
232
1.81
7
0.06
-3,432
-26.80
12,805
Isanti
6,751
28.34
14,774
62.01
1,671
7.01
608
2.55
20
0.08
-8,023
-33.68
23,824
Itasca
10,463
39.88
13,949
53.17
1,353
5.16
458
1.74
14
0.05
-3,486
-13.29
26,237
Jackson
1,744
30.55
3,524
61.74
323
5.66
115
2.01
2
0.04
-1,780
-31.18
5,708
Kanabec
2,612
28.91
5,657
62.62
577
6.39
185
2.05
3
0.03
-3,045
-33.71
9,034
Kandiyohi
8,117
35.32
13,388
58.25
1,151
5.01
312
1.36
16
0.07
-5,271
-22.93
22,984
Kittson
1,116
42.97
1,350
51.98
98
3.77
32
1.23
1
0.04
-234
-9.01
2,597
Koochiching
2,637
39.08
3,629
53.78
365
5.41
114
1.69
3
0.04
-992
-14.70
6,748
Lac qui Parle
1,477
37.08
2,314
58.10
139
3.49
52
1.31
1
0.02
-837
-21.01
3,983
Lake
3,485
48.95
3,155
44.31
332
4.66
144
2.02
4
0.06
330
4.64
7,120
Lake of the Woods
650
27.61
1,545
65.63
121
5.14
37
1.57
1
0.04
-895
-38.02
2,354
Le Sueur
5,401
32.74
9,825
59.56
969
5.87
297
1.80
5
0.03
-4,424
-26.82
16,497
Lincoln
911
29.55
1,936
62.80
183
5.94
49
1.59
4
0.13
-1,025
-33.25
3,083
Lyon
4,464
35.03
7,401
58.08
668
5.24
195
1.53
14
0.11
-2,937
-23.05
12,742
Mahnomen
1,039
45.85
1,007
44.44
169
7.46
48
2.12
3
0.13
32
1.41
2,266
Marshall
1,490
29.73
3,255
64.96
198
3.95
62
1.24
6
0.12
-1,765
-35.22
5,011
Martin
3,348
30.79
6,707
61.68
613
5.64
200
1.84
6
0.05
-3,359
-30.89
10,874
McLeod
6,114
29.64
12,875
62.43
1,223
5.93
393
1.91
19
0.09
-6,761
-32.78
20,624
Meeker
3,889
29.12
8,575
64.20
664
4.97
221
1.65
7
0.05
-4,686
-35.08
13,356
Mille Lacs
4,123
28.74
8,851
61.69
1,025
7.14
334
2.33
15
0.10
-4,728
-32.95
14,348
Morrison
4,452
23.25
13,368
69.82
1,012
5.29
307
1.60
7
0.04
-8,916
-46.57
19,146
Mower
8,472
44.92
8,615
45.68
1,380
7.32
385
2.04
7
0.04
-143
-0.76
18,859
Murray
1,448
30.15
3,081
64.15
221
4.60
52
1.08
1
0.02
-1,633
-34.00
4,803
Nicollet
8,992
47.64
8,397
44.48
1,062
5.63
412
2.18
13
0.07
595
3.15
18,876
Nobles
2,776
32.87
4,959
58.72
543
6.43
162
1.92
5
0.06
-2,183
-25.85
8,445
Norman
1,497
44.59
1,617
48.17
193
5.75
48
1.43
2
0.06
-120
-3.57
3,357
Olmsted
45,543
51.22
36,972
41.58
4,730
5.32
1,604
1.80
60
0.07
8,571
9.64
88,909
Otter Tail
11,728
32.75
21,738
60.70
1,817
5.07
510
1.42
19
0.05
-10,010
-27.95
35,812
Pennington
2,574
35.76
3,919
54.45
566
7.86
133
1.85
5
0.07
-1,345
-18.69
7,197
Pine
5,055
32.16
9,341
59.44
1,005
6.39
310
1.97
5
0.03
-4,286
-27.27
15,716
Pipestone
1,200
24.68
3,324
68.37
264
5.43
71
1.46
3
0.06
-2,124
-43.69
4,862
Polk
5,577
36.45
8,559
55.94
917
5.99
236
1.54
10
0.06
-2,982
-19.49
15,299
Pope
2,390
34.66
4,135
59.96
290
4.20
77
1.12
4
0.06
-1,745
-25.30
6,896
Ramsey
188,784
65.55
73,638
25.57
19,087
6.63
6,158
2.14
324
0.11
115,146
39.98
287,991
Red Lake
769
35.92
1,222
57.08
114
5.32
33
1.54
3
1.40
-453
-21.16
2,141
Redwood
2,297
28.06
5,415
66.15
355
4.34
114
1.39
5
0.06
-3,118
-38.09
8,186
Renville
2,500
31.47
4,927
62.01
390
4.91
122
1.54
6
0.07
-2,427
-30.55
7,945
Rice
16,201
46.20
15,999
45.63
2,138
6.10
701
2.00
24
0.07
202
0.58
35,063
Rock
1,461
28.42
3,286
63.93
294
5.72
98
1.91
1
0.02
-1,825
-35.51
5,140
Roseau
2,321
27.93
5,494
66.11
396
4.76
95
1.14
4
0.05
-3,173
-38.18
8,310
Scott
35,758
41.34
44,215
51.11
5,218
6.03
1,269
1.47
46
0.05
-8,457
-9.78
86,506
Sherburne
16,584
30.46
33,145
60.88
3,702
6.80
974
1.79
42
0.08
-16,561
-30.42
54,447
Sibley
2,368
28.52
5,391
64.94
426
5.13
112
1.35
5
0.06
-3,023
-36.41
8,302
St. Louis
63,036
53.81
45,016
38.43
6,545
5.59
2,451
2.09
87
0.07
18,020
15.38
117,135
Stearns
29,931
35.89
47,080
56.45
4,843
5.81
1,484
1.78
64
0.08
-17,149
-20.56
83,402
Steele
7,412
36.00
11,358
55.16
1,381
6.71
435
2.11
5
0.02
-3,946
-19.16
20,591
Stevens
1,906
38.02
2,848
56.81
192
3.83
67
1.34
0
0.00
-942
-18.79
5,013
Swift
1,838
35.70
3,020
58.66
226
4.39
63
1.22
1
0.02
-1,182
-22.96
5,148
Todd
3,354
25.68
8,842
67.70
650
4.98
205
1.57
10
0.08
-5,488
-42.02
13,061
Traverse
656
35.87
1,045
57.13
98
5.36
27
1.48
3
0.16
-389
-21.27
1,829
Wabasha
4,513
35.02
7,535
58.47
643
4.99
190
1.47
5
0.04
-3,022
-23.45
12,886
Wadena
1,977
26.09
5,041
66.52
419
5.53
137
1.81
4
0.05
-3,064
-40.43
7,578
Waseca
3,365
32.95
6,043
59.17
629
6.16
172
1.68
4
0.04
-2,678
-26.22
10,213
Washington
80,479
49.21
71,906
43.97
8,382
5.12
2,679
1.64
106
0.06
8,573
5.24
163,552
Watonwan
1,960
38.48
2,752
54.02
298
5.85
81
1.59
3
0.06
-792
-15.55
5,094
Wilkin
1,095
32.61
1,988
59.20
203
6.05
71
2.11
1
0.03
-893
-26.59
3,358
Winona
12,002
45.48
11,961
45.32
1,813
6.87
594
2.25
20
0.08
41
0.16
26,390
Wright
25,896
34.96
48,173
65.04
5,009
6.76
1,523
2.06
60
0.08
-22,277
-30.08
74,069
Yellow Medicine
1,678
30.78
3,436
63.02
270
4.95
65
1.19
3
0.06
-1,758
-32.24
5,452
Totals
1,566,522
48.74
1,398,145
43.50
190,154
5.92
57,174
1.78
2,261
0.07
168,377
5.24
3,214,256
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Smith and Lewis each won 4 congressional districts.
See also
Notes
^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 3%
^ O'Connor (LMN) and Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
^ O'Connor (LMN) with 3%; Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
^ O'Connor (LMN) and "Refused" with 2%; Steinberg (GLC) and "Other" with 1%
^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%
^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
^ Includes "Refused"
^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
^ Giffords endorsed Tina Smith prior to the sampling period
References
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^ a b "The Win Big Project" . The Win Big Project .
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^ Keith, Theo (August 22, 2019). "Theo Keith on Twitter: "Republican Doug Wardlow, who was once considering his own bid for U.S. Senate in 2020, throws his support behind Jason Lewis, who announced his candidacy this morning." " . Twitter . Retrieved August 22, 2019 .
^ a b Donald J. Trump. ".Jason Lewis (@LewisForMN) will be an incredible Senator for the State of Minnesota! He is a proven leader who will help us Lower your Taxes, Protect our Communities and Defend your Second Amendment…" . Twitter .
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^ "Donation Status [INCOMPLETE]" – via www.facebook.com.
^ Hagen, Matthew. "Lewis FOP Endorsement" (PDF) . Minnesota Fraternal Order of Police. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 1, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020 .
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^ Donohue, Thomas. "Chamber of Commerce Endorsement" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on November 12, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020 .
^ "Lewis for U.S. Senate" . echopress.com . Alexandria Echo Press. September 30, 2020. Retrieved September 30, 2020 .
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^ Research Co.
^ Data for Progress
^ Swayable
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
^ St. Cloud State University
^ SurveyUSA Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
^ Gravis Marketing
^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
^ SurveyUSA Archived October 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
^ Change Research
^ SurveyUSA Archived October 11, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
^ Suffolk University
^ Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
^ CBS News/YouGov
^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
^ SurveyUSA
^ Public Policy Polling
^ a b c Harper Polling (R)
^ a b Emerson College
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ PPP
^ Harper Polling/Jason Lewis
^ "Statewide Results for U.S. Senator" . Minnesota Secretary of State . Retrieved November 25, 2020 .
^ "State of Minnesota Canvassing Report" . Minnesota Secretary of State . November 24, 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2022 .
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