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2024 California's 47th congressional district election

For broader coverage of this topic, see California's 47th congressional district.

2024 California's 47th congressional district election
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
 
Candidate Dave Min Scott Baugh
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 181,655 171,501
Percentage 51.44% 48.56%
U.S. Representative before election

Katie Porter
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Dave Min
Democratic

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The 2024 California's 47th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 47th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The Southern California-based 47th district is centered in Orange County and includes the cities of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, and Seal Beach, as well as portions of Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, and Laguna Woods.

The incumbent is Democrat Katie Porter, who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate.[1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Republican Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics and frequently went viral for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings.[2] During the primary elections, AIPAC spent an unprecedented $4.6 million against Min.[3][4]

The general election pit former state assemblyman Scott Baugh, a Republican, against state senator Dave Min, a Democrat. Candidates eliminated in the primary election included Democratic attorney Joanna Weiss and Republican businessman Max Ukropina.

The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a slightly blue suburban district with no incumbent. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 47th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[5][6] Democrat Joe Biden won the district with 54.5% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election.[7]

On the night of November 12, 2024, after a week of counting and an estimate of 86% of the vote reporting, Baugh conceded the race to Min, who was leading with 50.9% of the vote at the time.[8]

Primary election

Candidates

Advanced to general

  • Scott Baugh (Republican), former minority leader of the California state assembly, former chair of the Orange County Republican Party, and runner-up for this district in 2022[9]
  • Dave Min (Democratic), state senator and candidate for this district[a] in 2018[10]

Eliminated in primary

  • Terry Crandall (no party preference), Santa Ana College economics professor[11]
  • Tom McGrath (no party preference), chemical engineer[11]
  • Long Pham (Republican), former member of the Orange County Department of Education Board of Directors and perennial candidate[11]
  • Boyd Roberts (Democratic), realtor and perennial candidate[11]
  • Bill Smith (no party preference), retired attorney[11]
  • Max Ukropina (Republican), businessman and former aide to U.S. Representatives John Campbell and David Valadao[12]
  • Joanna Weiss (Democratic), attorney and law professor[13]
  • Shariq Zaidi (Democratic), security guard[11]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Scott Baugh (R)

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Political parties

Organizations

Long Pham (R)

Organizations

Dave Min (D)

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

  • 24 state senators[38]
  • 33 state assemblymembers[38]

Individuals

Newspapers and other media

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Max Ukropina (R)

Political parties

Joanna Weiss (D)

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State assemblymembers

Local officials

Organizations

Dom Jones (D) (withdrawn)

Individuals

Harley Rouda (D) (withdrawn)

U.S. representatives

Local officials

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Scott
Baugh (R) 		Dave
Min (D) 		Max
Ukropina (R) 		Joanna
Weiss (D) 		Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[76][A] February 12–14, 2024 366 (LV) ± 5.1% 27% 22% 9% 16% 9% 17%
RMG Research[77][B] November 14–19, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 17% 12% 4% 7% 4%[c] 56%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dave Min (D) $1,731,136 $1,507,057 $224,079
Boyd Roberts (D) $6,762 $8,369 $0
Joanna Weiss (D) $2,151,268[d] $1,538,667 $612,601
Scott Baugh (R) $2,010,374 $313,132 $1,707,928
Max Ukropina (R) $595,201 $436,787 $158,414
Terry Crandall (NPP) $13,985 $12,461 $1,523
Tom McGrath (NPP) $14,033 $8,895 $5,138
Bill Smith (NPP) $15,000[e] $7,770 $7,230
Source: Federal Election Commission[78]

Results

2024 California's 47th congressional district primary[79][80]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Baugh 49,799 32.8
Democratic Dave Min 39,080 25.7
Democratic Joanna Weiss 28,948 19.0
Republican Max Ukropina 22,729 15.0
Republican Long Pham 4,195 2.8
No party preference Terry Crandall 2,400 1.6
Democratic Boyd Roberts 2,012 1.3
No party preference Tom McGrath 1,321 0.9
No party preference Bill Smith 902 0.6
Democratic Shariq Zaidi 672 0.4
Total votes 152,058 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[81] Lean D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[82] Tossup March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] Lean D September 19, 2024
Elections Daily[84] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
CNalysis[85] Lean D November 4, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Dave Min (D)

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Scott Baugh (R)

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Dave
Min (D) 		Scott
Baugh (R) 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[100][A] October 17–18, 2024 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 40% 43% 17%
WPA Intelligence (R)[100][A] September 24–26, 2024 – – 45% 42% 13%
USC/CSU[101] September 14–21, 2024 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 49% 5%[f]
Public Policy Polling (D)[102][C] October 24–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[103][D] June 14–15, 2023 555 (LV) ± 4.2% 37% 39% 24%
Hypothetical polling

Scott Baugh vs. Joanna Weiss

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joanna
Weiss (D) 		Scott
Baugh (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[102][C] October 24–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 42% 15%

Results

2024 California's 47th congressional district election[104]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Dave Min 181,694 51.44% −0.28
Republican Scott Baugh 171,524 48.56% +0.28
Total votes 353,218 100.0%
Democratic hold

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Baugh's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  3. ^ a b Poll conducted for Weiss's campaign
  4. ^ Poll conducted for Min's campaign
  1. ^ This district was numbered as the 45th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  4. ^ $225,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss
  5. ^ $15,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss
  6. ^ "Won't vote" with 1%

References

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  3. ^ Weigel, David (March 1, 2024). "A California House race is AIPAC's first big target. Nobody is quite sure why". Semafor. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
  4. ^ Anguiano, Dani (March 11, 2024). "Pro-Israel group spent millions in tight race for southern California House seat – and lost". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
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  77. ^ RMG Research
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Official campaign websites

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