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2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,697,626 1,668,229
Percentage 49.60% 48.74%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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Mayoral elections

The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Wisconsin voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin awarded ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Wisconsin was considered to be a crucial battleground in 2024, with almost all major news organizations marking the state as a tossup.[2] The Wisconsin Green Party attained ballot access after not appearing in 2020.[3]

Trump won Wisconsin with 49.6% of the vote, the highest percentage a Republican candidate has received in Wisconsin since Reagan's 1984 landslide. With Wisconsin called for Trump a number of networks simultaneously declared Trump the president-elect, elected to a second, non-consecutive term.

Trump's victory in the state made him the first Republican candidate to carry Wisconsin twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984. He also received nearly 1.7 million votes, a record for a candidate in the history of the state.

As of 2024, Wisconsin has together with Michigan and Pennsylvania, the longest-running active streak among states of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the latest five presidential elections. The results also extended it to nine consecutive presidential elections where the winning party did not differ between those three states.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary

The Wisconsin Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.

Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 2, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 512,379 88.6% 82 82
Uninstructed 48,373 8.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 17,730 3.1%
Total: 578,482 100.0% 82 13 95

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary

The Wisconsin Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.

Wisconsin Republican primary, April 2, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 477,103 78.97% 41 0 0
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 76,841 12.72% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 20,124 3.33% 0 0 0
Uninstructed 13,057 2.16% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 9,771 1.62% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 5,200 0.86% 0 0 0
Write-ins 2,081 0.34% 0 0 0
Total: 604,177 100.00% 41 0 41

General election

Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee decorated to host the 2024 Republican National Convention

Campaign

Convention

The Republican Party held their presidential nomination convention in the Wisconsin city of Milwaukee, where Donald Trump and JD Vance were formally nominated as the GOP ticket.[6][7] This year marked the first time that Milwaukee hosted the Republican National Convention. The Democratic National Convention was selected for Milwaukee in 2020 but much of the convention activity was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[8]

Candidates

The following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot:[9]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Tossup November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Lean D November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNN[13] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNalysis[14] Lean D November 4, 2024
The Economist[15] Tossup November 4, 2024
538[16] Tossup November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[17] Tossup November 4, 2024
NBC News[18] Tossup November 4, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270ToWin[19] October 23 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.8% 47.7% 3.5% Harris +1.1%
538[20] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.3% 47.3% 4.4% Harris +1.0%
Silver Bulletin[21] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.7% 47.7% 3.6% Harris +1.0%
The Hill/DDHQ[22] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 48.7% 2.9% Trump +0.3%
Average 48.6% 47.9% 3.5% Harris +0.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[23] November 3–5, 2024 1,727 (RV) ± 2.4% 47% 46% 7%
51%[d] 49% –
1,549 (LV) 49% 47% 4%
51%[d] 49% –
AtlasIntel[24] November 3–4, 2024 869 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
Research Co.[25] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 46% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[26] November 1–3, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 47% 5%[e]
Patriot Polling[27] November 1–3, 2024 835 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[28] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 49% 3%[f]
AtlasIntel[29] November 1–2, 2024 728 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 50% 1%
Emerson College[30] October 30 – November 2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 49% 2%[g]
50%[d] 50% –
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[31] October 25 – November 2, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 3%[h]
786 (LV) 49% 48% 3%[h]
New York Times/Siena College[32] October 25 – November 2, 2024 1,305 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 4%
1,305 (LV) 49% 47% 4%
ActiVote[33] October 10 – November 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 49% –
AtlasIntel[34] October 30–31, 2024 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 49% 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[35] October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 47% 48% 5%
YouGov[36][A] October 25–31, 2024 889 (RV) ± 4.5% 51% 47% 2%
876 (LV) 51% 47% 2%
Morning Consult[37] October 22−31, 2024 540 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% 3%
TIPP Insights[38][B] October 28–30, 2024 1,038 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 46% 6%
831 (LV) 48% 48% 4%
Marist College[39] October 27–30, 2024 1,444 (RV) ± 3.3% 50% 48% 2%[i]
1,330 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 48% 2%[i]
Echelon Insights[40] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 49% 2%
Quantus Insights (R)[41][C] October 28–29, 2024 637 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 49% 2%
SoCal Strategies (R)[42][D] October 28–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 49% 2%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[43][E] October 25–29, 2024 818 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 3%[f]
AtlasIntel[44] October 25–29, 2024 1,470 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
CNN/SSRS[45] October 23–28, 2024 736 (LV) ± 4.8% 51% 45% 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[46] October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%[f]
CES/YouGov[47] October 1–25, 2024 1,552 (A) – 51% 46% 3%
1,542 (LV) 50% 47% 3%
Marquette University Law School[48] October 16–24, 2024 834 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% 6%
51%[d] 49% –
753 (LV) 48% 47% 5%
50%[d] 49% 1%
Emerson College[49][F] October 21–22, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 49% 3%[g]
49%[d] 50% 1%[g]
Quinnipiac University[50] October 17–21, 2024 1,108 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 48% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[51] October 18−20, 2024 1,083 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% 6%[f]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[52] October 16–20, 2024 635 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
624 (LV) 48% 48% 4%
The Bullfinch Group[53] October 11−18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 47% 3%
48% 46% 7%[j]
AtlasIntel[54] October 12–17, 2024 932 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%
RMG Research[55][G] October 10−16, 2024 787 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%[k]
49%[d] 50% 1%
Morning Consult[37] October 6−15, 2024 527 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 48% 5%
Washington Post/Schar School[56] September 30 – October 15, 2024 695 (RV) ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%
695 (LV) 50% 47% 3%
Patriot Polling[57] October 12–14, 2024 803 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[58][E] October 9–14, 2024 1,004 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[59] October 8–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 48% 4%[e]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[60][H] October 6–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%
Emerson College[61] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%[g]
49%[d] 50% 1%[g]
Wall Street Journal[62] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 48% 48% 4%
Research Co.[63] October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 45% 8%[l]
50%[d] 48% 2%[l]
Quinnipiac University[64] October 3–7, 2024 1,073 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%
Arc Insights[65][I] October 2–6, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 48% 5%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[66][J] September 24 – October 2, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% 7%
Trafalgar Group (R)[67] September 28–30, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% 7%[e]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[68][K] September 23–29, 2024 408 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 46% 6%
ActiVote[69] August 29 – September 29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 48% –
New York Times/Siena College[70] September 21–26, 2024 680 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% 4%
680 (LV) 49% 47% 4%
Marquette University Law School[71] September 18–26, 2024 882 (RV) ± 4.4% 50% 45% 5%
52%[d] 48% –
798 (LV) 50% 45% 5%
52%[d] 48% –
AtlasIntel[72] September 20–25, 2024 1,077 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[73] September 19–25, 2024 411 (LV) – 49% 47% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] September 19–25, 2024 849 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% 2%
785 (LV) 51% 48% 1%
Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[75][L] September 19–23, 2024 400 (LV) – 51% 45% 4%
RMG Research[76][G] September 17–23, 2024 788 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 49% 1%[g]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[77][E] September 19−22, 2024 1,071 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 1%
Emerson College[78] September 15–18, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%[g]
49%[d] 50% 1%[g]
MassINC Polling Group[79][M] September 12−18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 46% 1%
Morning Consult[37] September 9−18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 44% 6%
Marist College[80] September 12−17, 2024 1,312 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 47% 3%[m]
1,194 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 49% 1%[i]
Quinnipiac University[81] September 12–16, 2024 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][N] September 11–14, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[83] September 11–12, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 4%[n]
Morning Consult[37] August 30 – September 8, 2024 638 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 46% 5%
co/efficient (R)[84] September 4–6, 2024 917 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 47% 6%
CBS News/YouGov[85] September 3–6, 2024 946 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 49% –
Marquette University Law School[86] August 28 – September 5, 2024 822 (RV) ± 4.6% 49% 45% 6%
52%[d] 48% –
738 (LV) ± 4.7% 49% 44% 7%
52%[d] 48% –
Patriot Polling[87] September 1–3, 2024 826 (RV) – 48% 48% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[88] August 28–30, 2024 1,083 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% 7%[e]
Emerson College[89] August 25–28, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 49% 3%
49%[d] 50% 1%[g]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] August 23–26, 2024 648 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 44% 3%
701 (RV) 52% 44% 4%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
YouGov[91][O] August 15–23, 2024 500 (A) ± 5.3% 48% 42% 10%[o]
– (LV) ± 5.9% 51% 46% 3%
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
BK Strategies[92][P] August 19–21, 2024 600 (LV) – 48% 45% 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)[93][Q] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 45% 6%
Spry Strategies (R)[94][R] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[95][S] August 13–19, 2024 1,099 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 5%
Focaldata[96] August 6–16, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 48% –
Quantus Insights (R)[97][C] August 14–15, 2024 601 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% 9%
TIPP Insights[98][B] August 12–14, 2024 1,015 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 46% 7%
976 (LV) 47% 47% 6%
The Bullfinch Group[99][T] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 51% 42% 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[100] August 6–8, 2024 800 (LV) – 48% 49% 3%
Navigator Research (D)[101] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[102] July 26 – August 8, 2024 404 (LV) – 49% 46% 5%
New York Times/Siena College[103] August 5–8, 2024 661 (RV) ± 4.3% 50% 46% 4%
661 (LV) 50% 46% 3%
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
RMG Research [104][G] July 31 – August 5, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 45% 7%
Marquette University Law School[105] July 24 – August 1, 2024 877 (RV) ± 4.6% 47% 44% 9%
49%[d] 50% 1%
801 (LV) ± 4.8% 49% 45% 6%
50%[d] 49% 1%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[106][U] July 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 46% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107] July 24–28, 2024 700 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% 4%
Fox News[108] July 22–24, 2024 1,046 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
Emerson College[109] July 22–23, 2024 845 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 47% 6%
51%[d] 49% –
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] July 10–11, 2024 548 (RV) – 48% 49% 3%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[111][B] July 6–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 48% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] May 7–13, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 49% 10%
Emerson College[113] February 20–24, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
New York Times/Siena College[114] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.8% 46% 47% 7%
603 (LV) 46% 48% 6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[23] November 3–5, 2024 1,727 (RV) ± 2.4% 45% 45% 2% 1% – 7%
48.0%[d] 47.9% 2.6% 1.4% – –
1,549 (LV) 47% 47% 2% 1% – 3%
48.1%[d] 48.5% 2.1% 1.3% – –
AtlasIntel[24] November 3–4, 2024 869 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% – 1% 0% 1%[n]
AtlasIntel[29] November 1–2, 2024 728 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% – 1% 0% 2%[n]
New York Times/Siena College[32] October 25 – November 2, 2024 1,305 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 45% 0% 2% 0% 5%
1,305 (LV) 48% 45% 0% 1% 0% 6%
Focaldata[115] October 3 – November 1, 2024 1,799 (LV) – 50% 47% – 0% 1% 2%
1,613 (RV) ± 2.3% 51% 46% – 1% 1% 1%
1,799 (A) – 49% 46% – 1% 1% 3%
AtlasIntel[34] October 30–31, 2024 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% – 1% 0% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[116] October 28–31, 2024 932 (LV) – 48% 47% – 0% 1% 4%
YouGov[36][A] October 25–31, 2024 889 (RV) ± 4.5% 48% 45% 0% 3% – 4%
876 (LV) 49% 45% 0% 2% – 4%
AtlasIntel[44] October 25–29, 2024 1,470 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% – 1% 1% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[117] October 25–27, 2024 746 (LV) – 49% 47% – 0% 1% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[118] October 20–22, 2024 557 (LV) – 49% 47% – 0% 1% 3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[119][W] October 19–22, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 48% – 0% 1% 4%[n]
Quinnipiac University[50] October 17–21, 2024 1,108 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 48% 0% 0% 0% 4%[p]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[52] October 16–20, 2024 635 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 47% – 1% 3% 2%
624 (LV) 47% 47% – 1% 3% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[120] October 16–18, 2024 622 (LV) – 47% 46% – 0% 1% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121] October 12–14, 2024 641 (LV) – 48% 47% – 1% 1% 3%
Quinnipiac University[64] October 3–7, 2024 1,073 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 0% 1% 1% 4%[p]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] September 27 – October 2, 2024 533 (LV) – 47% 46% – 0% 1% 6%
New York Times/Siena College[70] September 21–26, 2024 680 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% – 1% 2% 4%
680 (LV) 48% 46% – 1% 2% 3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] September 19–25, 2024 849 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% – 1% 2% 1%
785 (LV) 50% 47% – 0% 1% 2%
Remington Research Group (R)[123][X] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 1% 0% – 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] September 16–19, 2024 600 (LV) – 47% 47% – 0% 0% 6%
Quinnipiac University[81] September 12–16, 2024 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 0% 1% 1% 3%[p]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[125] September 6–9, 2024 626 (LV) – 49% 46% – 0% 1% 4%
YouGov[126][A] August 23 – September 3, 2024 900 (RV) ± 4.1% 47% 44% 1% 1% – 7%[f]
CNN/SSRS[127] August 23–29, 2024 976 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 44% 0% 2% 2% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[128] August 25–28, 2024 672 (LV) – 48% 44% – 0% 0% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] August 23–26, 2024 648 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 44% – 1% 1% 2%
701 (RV) 51% 44% – 1% 1% 3%


Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.[q]
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Others/
Undecided
[r] 		Margin
Race to the WH[129] through October 7, 2024 October 13, 2024 47.7% 46.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 2.3% Harris +1.4%
270toWin[130] October 2 – 11, 2024 October 11, 2024 47.0% 45.7% 2.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 3.1% Harris +1.3%
Average 47.4% 46.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 2.6% Harris +1.4%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
TIPP Insights[38][B] October 28–30, 2024 1,038 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 44% 3% 1% 1% – 5%
831 (LV) 48% 47% 3% 1% 1% – –
Echelon Insights[40] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3%
CNN/SSRS[131] October 23–28, 2024 736 (LV) ± 4.8% 51% 45% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2%
Marquette University Law School[48] October 16–24, 2024 834 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 43% 5% 1% 1% 2% 2%[p]
753 (LV) 46% 44% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1%[p]
USA Today/Suffolk University[132][133] October 20–23, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 48% 1% 0% 1% 0% 3%[p]
AtlasIntel[54] October 12–17, 2024 932 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 1% – 0% 1% 1%
Wall Street Journal[62] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 46% 45% 3% 1% 0% 0% 5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[68][K] September 23–29, 2024 408 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 45% 2% 1% 0% 1% 5%
Marquette University Law School[71] September 18–26, 2024 882 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 44% 3% 0% 1% 1% 3%[s]
798 (LV) 49% 44% 3% 0% 1% 1% 2%[s]
AtlasIntel[72] September 20–25, 2024 1,077 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 0% 0% 1% 1% –
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[73] September 19–25, 2024 411 (LV) – 48% 46% 0% 1% 2% – 3%
MassINC Polling Group[79][M] September 12−18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 45% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][N] September 11–14, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 2% 0% 1% 0% 4%[t]
Marquette University Law School[86] August 28 – September 5, 2024 822 (RV) ± 4.6% 47% 43% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1%
738 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 43% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1%[u]
Z to A Research (D)[134][Y] August 23–26, 2024 518 (LV) – 47% 47% 2% – 0% 1% 3%
YouGov[91][O] August 15–23, 2024 500 (A) ± 5.3% 45% 40% 4% 1% 1% 0% 9%[v]
– (LV) ± 5.9% 49% 45% 1% 1% 0% 0% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[95][S] August 13–19, 2024 1,099 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 46% 4% 1% 1% 0% 2%
Focaldata[96] August 6–16, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 44% 4% – 1% 0% 1%
700 (RV) 50% 42% 5% – 1% 0% 2%
700 (A) 50% 43% 5% – 1% 0% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[135] August 12–15, 2024 469 (LV) – 48% 44% 3% – 0% 0% 5%
The Bullfinch Group[99][T] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 40% 3% 1% 1% – 6%
New York Times/Siena College[103] August 5–8, 2024 661 (RV) ± 4.3% 49% 42% 6% 0% 1% 1% 2%
661 (LV) 49% 43% 5% 0% 1% 1% 2%
Navigator Research (D)[101] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 5% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[102] July 26 – August 8, 2024 404 (LV) – 48% 43% 5% 1% 0% – 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[136] July 31 – August 3, 2024 597 (LV) – 43% 43% 3% – 0% 0% 11%
Marquette University Law School[105] July 24 – August 1, 2024 877 (RV) ± 4.6% 45% 43% 8% 0% 1% 1% 2%
801 (LV) ± 4.8% 46% 45% 6% 0% 1% 1% 1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107] July 24–28, 2024 700 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 45% 6% – 0% 3% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[137] July 22–24, 2024 523 (LV) – 44% 44% 5% – 1% 1% 5%
Fox News[108] July 22–24, 2024 1,046 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 46% 5% 1% 1% – 1%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)[94][R] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 3% 2% 7%
Emerson College[109] July 22–23, 2024 845 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 45% 3% 1% 6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward (R)[93][Q] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 42% 4% 7%
Civiqs[138][Y] July 13–16, 2024 514 (RV) ± 4.8% 48% 48% 2% 2%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Marquette University Law School[105] July 24 – August 1, 2024 877 (RV) ± 4.6% 42% 47% 11%
801 (LV) ± 4.8% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College[139][Z] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[140][AA] July 11–12, 2024 653 (V) ± 3.8% 47% 46% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[141][AB] July 5–12, 2024 1,020 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] July 10–11, 2024 548 (RV) – 47% 47% 6%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[111][B] July 6–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 46% 10%
Echelon Insights[142][AC] July 1–8, 2024 617 (LV) ± 4.7% 45% 47% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[143] July 1–5, 2024 695 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% 9%
SoCal Strategies (R)[144][AD] June 30 – July 2, 2024 490 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 44% 13%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[145][N] June 28 – July 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 50% 5%
Emerson College[146][Z] June 30 – July 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
Remington Research Group (R)[147] June 29 – July 1, 2024 593 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% 8%
Marquette University Law School[148] June 12–20, 2024 871 (RV) ± 4.6% 44% 44% 12%
50%[d] 50% –
784 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 44% 9%
51%[d] 49% –
Emerson College[149] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
49%[d] 51% –
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[150] May 30–31, 2024 338 (RV) ± 5.3% 40% 38% 22%[w]
290 (LV) 40% 41% 19%[x]
KAConsulting (R)[151][AE] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 45% 45% 10%
Prime Group[152][AF] May 9–16, 2024 488 (RV) – 51% 49% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] May 7–13, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 47% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[153] May 6–13, 2024 503 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 45% 9%
New York Times/Siena College[154] April 28 – May 9, 2024 614 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%
614 (LV) 46% 47% 7%
Quinnipiac University[155] May 2–6, 2024 1,457 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 44% 6%
Emerson College[156] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
48%[d] 52% –
Kaplan Strategies[157] April 20–21, 2024 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 48% 14%
John Zogby Strategies[158][AG] April 13–21, 2024 518 (LV) – 46% 48% 6%
CBS News/YouGov[159] April 19–25, 2024 1,226 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 50% 1%
Fox News[160] April 11–16, 2024 1,198 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[161] April 8–15, 2024 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 48% 8%
Marquette University Law School[162] April 3–10, 2024 814 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 47% 9%
49%[d] 51% –
736 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 48% 7%
49%[d] 51% –
North Star Opinion Research (R)[163][AH] April 6–9, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%
Wall Street Journal[164] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 8%
Echelon Insights[165][AI] March 12–19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5.5% 47% 46% 7%
Emerson College[166] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
48%[d] 52% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] March 8–14, 2024 697 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] February 12–20, 2024 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College[113] February 20–24, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 13%
Kaplan Strategies[169] February 23, 2024 941 (RV) ± 3.2% 39% 41% 20%
Marquette University Law School[170] January 24–31, 2024 930 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 44% 12%
49%[d] 49% 2%
808 (LV) 44% 46% 10%
49%[d] 50% 1%
Fox News[171] January 26–30, 2024 1,172 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% 6%
Focaldata[172] January 17–23, 2024 863 (A) – 38% 43% 19%[y]
– (LV) 42% 46% 12%[z]
49%[d] 51% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[173] January 16–21, 2024 697 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[174] November 27 – December 6, 2023 681 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 45% 14%
J.L. Partners[175][AJ] November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 41% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[176] October 30 – November 7, 2023 675 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 47% 7%
Emerson College[177] October 30 - November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 44% 13%
819 (LV) 45% 45% 10%
New York Times/Siena College[114] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.8% 47% 45% 8%
603 (LV) 47% 45% 8%
Marquette University Law School[178] October 26 – November 2, 2023 908 (RV) ± 4.5% 45% 42% 13%
50%[d] 48% 1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[179] October 5–10, 2023 700 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 46% 10%
Emerson College[180] October 1–4, 2023 532 (RV) ± 4.2% 40% 42% 19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[181][AK] September 25–26, 2023 673 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 44% 8%
Prime Group[182][AF] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 53% 47% –
500 (RV) – 37% 40% 23%[aa]
Marquette University Law School[183] June 8–13, 2023 913 (RV) ± 4.3% 48% 38% 14%
52%[d] 43% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[184] April 17–20, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 43% 9%
Emerson College[185] October 27–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 43% 13%
Emerson College[186] September 16–18, 2022 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 44% 11%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[187][H] November 11–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 52% 6%
Marquette University Law School[188] October 26–31, 2021 805 (RV) ± 3.9% 45% 41% 14%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[189] July 16–18, 2024 470 (LV) – 42% 42% 6% – 1% 9%[ab]
Trafalgar Group (R)[190] July 15–17, 2024 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% 43% 46% 3% 0% 1% 7%
Emerson College[139][Z] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 4% 0% 1% 6%[ac]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[141][AB] July 5–12, 2024 1,020 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 7% 0% 1% 5%[ac]
YouGov[191][A] July 4–12, 2024 900 (RV) ± 4.1% 38% 43% 4% 1% 1% 13%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[B] July 6–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 38% 11% – 3% 12%[ad]
Echelon Insights[142][AC] July 1–8, 2024 617 (LV) ± 4.7% 42% 43% 6% 1% 2% 6%[ae]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[143] July 1–5, 2024 695 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 39% 10% 1% 1% 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[145][N] June 28 – July 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 9% – 3% 6%[ac]
Marquette University Law School[148] June 12–20, 2024 871 (RV) ± 4.6% 40% 43% 8% 4% 2% 3%[ae]
784 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 44% 7% 3% 2% 2%[ac]
Emerson College[149] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 44% 6% 0% 1% 7%
J.L. Partners[192] June 5–10, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% 5% 0% 0% 6%
KAConsulting (R)[151][AE] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 42% 42% 7% 1% 2% 6%[af]
Prime Group[152][AF] May 9–16, 2024 488 (RV) – 44% 44% 7% 3% 2% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] May 7–13, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% 6% 1% 1% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[153] May 6–13, 2024 503 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 41% 9% 1% 1% 7%
New York Times/Siena College[154] April 28 – May 9, 2024 614 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 38% 9% 0% 1% 14%[ag]
614 (LV) 39% 40% 8% 0% 0% 13%[ag]
Quinnipiac University[155] May 2–6, 2024 1,457 (RV) ± 2.6% 40% 39% 12% 1% 4% 4%
Emerson College[156] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 45% 6% 1% 1% 7%
Fox News[160] April 11–16, 2024 1,198 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 41% 9% 2% 2% 3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[161] April 8–15, 2024 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 44% 8% 1% 1% 5%
Marquette University Law School[162] April 3–10, 2024 814 (RV) ± 4.8% 40% 41% 13% 3% 2% 1%
736 (LV) ± 5.0% 41% 42% 12% 3% 1% 1%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[163][AH] April 6–9, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 37% 13% 2% 4% 9%
Wall Street Journal[164] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 38% 10% 1% 1% 9%
Emerson College[166] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 43% 6% 1% 1% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] March 8–14, 2024 697 (RV) ± 4.0% 39% 41% 10% 1% 1% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] February 12–20, 2024 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 35% 41% 10% 1% 1% 12%
Emerson College[113] February 20–24, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 41% 7% 1% 1% 13%
Marquette University Law School[170] January 24–31, 2024 930 (RV) ± 4.2% 37% 40% 16% 2% 4% 1%
808 (LV) 39% 41% 13% 2% 4% 1%
Fox News[171] January 26–30, 2024 1,172 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 42% 7% 1% 2% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[193] January 16–21, 2024 697 (RV) ± 4.0% 35% 43% 10% 0% 2% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[194] November 27 – December 6, 2023 681 (RV) ± 4.0% 34% 40% 10% 1% 3% 13%
J.L. Partners[175][AJ] November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 37% 7% 1% 1% 12%[ah]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Civiqs[138][Y] July 13–16, 2024 514 (RV) ± 4.8% 47% 47% 3% 3%
P2 Insights[195][AL] June 11–20, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 45% 4% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[150] May 30–31, 2024 338 (RV) ± 5.3% 38% 31% 13% 18%
290 (LV) 40% 35% 12% 13%
P2 Insights[196][AL] May 13−21, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 44% 7% 7%
New York Times/Siena College[197] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.8% 37% 35% 22% 6%
603 (LV) 37% 35% 21% 7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[198] October 30 – November 7, 2023 675 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 38% 13% 2% 11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
CBS News/YouGov[159] April 19–25, 2024 1,226 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 48% 8% 0%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[158][AG] April 13–21, 2024 518 (LV) – 42% 48% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[158][AG] April 13–21, 2024 518 (LV) – 41% 41% 18%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] July 10–11, 2024 548 (RV) – 48% 48% 4%
Emerson College[113] February 20–24, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 45% 19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[108] July 22–24, 2024 1,046 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 50% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] July 10–11, 2024 548 (RV) – 47% 46% 7%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		JB
Pritzker
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] July 10–11, 2024 548 (RV) – 47% 47% 6%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[108] July 22–24, 2024 1,046 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 49% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] July 10–11, 2024 548 (RV) – 46% 44% 10%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Pete
Buttigieg
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] July 10–11, 2024 548 (RV) – 47% 46% 7%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Marquette University Law School[170] January 24–31, 2024 930 (RV) ± 4.2% 33% 45% 22%
930 (RV) ± 4.2% 41%[d] 57% 2%
808 (LV) ± 4.2% 35% 46% 19%
808 (LV) ± 4.2% 42%[d] 57% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[199] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.8% 39% 52% 9%
603 (LV) 39% 53% 8%
Marquette University Law School[178] October 26 – November 2, 2023 908 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 41% 23%
44%[d] 53% 3%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[199] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 48% 8%
603 (LV) 44% 48% 8%
Marquette University Law School[178] October 26 – November 2, 2023 908 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 42% 15%
48%[d] 50% 1%
Marquette University Law School[183] June 8–13, 2023 913 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 43% 12%
49%[d] 47% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[200] April 17–20, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% 10%


Results

2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin[201]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
1,697,626 49.60% +0.58
Democratic
1,668,229 48.74% −0.81
Independent
17,740 0.52% N/A
Green
12,275 0.36% +0.33
Libertarian
10,511 0.31% −0.86
Constitution
4,044 0.12% −0.04
Independent
2,753 0.08% N/A
Socialism and Liberation
2,035 0.06% +0.06
Independent
561 0.02% −0.14
Independent
  • Doug Jenkins (Write-in)
  • Kimberly LaLonde (Write-in)
 12 0.00% N/A
Independent
  • Future Madam Potus (Write-in)
  • Jessica Kennedy (Write-in)
 1 0.00% N/A
Write-in 7,131 0.21% +0.02
Total votes 3,422,918 100%

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 7,763 60.26% 4,443 34.49% 676 5.25% 3,320 25.77% 12,882
Ashland 4,191 46.80% 4,612 51.50% 152 1.70% -421 -4.70% 8,955
Barron 16,726 62.39% 8,941 33.35% 1,142 4.26% 7,785 29.04% 26,809
Bayfield 4,860 43.24% 6,107 54.33% 273 2.43% -1,247 -11.09% 11,240
Brown 79,132 52.99% 67,937 45.49% 2,264 1.52% 11,195 7.50% 149,333
Buffalo 5,213 64.36% 2,765 34.14% 122 1.51% 2,448 30.22% 8,100
Burnett 7,008 64.83% 3,665 33.90% 137 1.27% 3,343 30.93% 10,810
Calumet 19,488 59.21% 12,927 39.27% 501 1.52% 6,561 19.94% 32,916
Chippewa 23,399 60.82% 14,573 37.88% 499 1.30% 8,826 22.94% 38,471
Clark 10,481 68.32% 4,509 29.39% 350 2.28% 5,972 38.93% 15,340
Columbia 17,988 51.52% 16,388 46.94% 538 1.54% 1,600 4.58% 34,914
Crawford 5,113 56.16% 3,860 42.39% 132 1.45% 1,253 13.77% 9,105
Dane 85,454 23.35% 273,995 74.88% 6,480 1.77% -188,541 -51.53% 365,929
Dodge 33,067 65.74% 16,518 32.84% 715 1.42% 16,549 32.90% 50,300
Door 10,099 48.22% 10,565 50.44% 280 1.34% -466 -2.22% 20,944
Douglas 11,732 46.49% 13,073 51.81% 429 1.70% -1,341 -5.32% 25,234
Dunn 14,726 57.35% 10,643 41.45% 309 1.20% 4,083 15.90% 25,678
Eau Claire 27,728 43.89% 34,400 54.45% 1,049 1.66% -6,672 -10.56% 63,177
Florence 2,356 74.60% 783 24.79% 19 0.60% 1,573 49.81% 3,158
Fond du Lac 37,272 63.68% 20,495 35.02% 760 1.30% 16,777 28.66% 58,527
Forest 3,382 66.35% 1,681 32.98% 34 0.67% 1,701 33.37% 5,097
Grant 15,922 58.31% 10,966 40.16% 418 1.53% 4,956 18.15% 27,306
Green 10,843 49.12% 10,903 49.39% 330 1.49% -60 -0.27% 22,076
Green Lake 7,458 67.48% 3,449 31.21% 145 1.31% 4,009 36.27% 11,052
Iowa 6,631 45.18% 7,750 52.80% 296 2.02% -1,119 -7.62% 14,677
Iron 2,557 62.61% 1,487 36.41% 40 0.98% 1,070 26.20% 4,084
Jackson 6,204 59.07% 4,157 39.58% 141 1.34% 2,047 19.49% 10,502
Jefferson 28,771 57.37% 20,574 41.03% 801 1.60% 8,197 16.34% 50,146
Juneau 9,525 65.45% 4,854 33.35% 174 1.20% 4,671 32.10% 14,553
Kenosha 47,478 52.36% 41,826 46.12% 1,376 1.52% 5,652 6.24% 90,680
Kewaunee 8,267 66.22% 4,059 32.51% 158 1.27% 4,208 33.71% 12,484
La Crosse 32,247 44.63% 39,008 53.98% 1,006 1.39% -6,761 -9.35% 72,261
Lafayette 5,256 59.51% 3,469 39.28% 107 1.21% 1,787 20.23% 8,832
Langlade 7,782 66.72% 3,746 32.12% 136 1.17% 4,036 34.60% 11,664
Lincoln 10,633 61.79% 6,306 36.64% 270 1.57% 4,327 25.15% 17,209
Manitowoc 28,200 60.89% 17,399 37.57% 717 1.55% 10,801 23.32% 46,316
Marathon 46,213 58.63% 31,529 40.00% 1,084 1.38% 14,684 18.63% 78,826
Marinette 16,670 68.28% 7,415 30.37% 330 1.35% 9,255 37.91% 24,415
Marquette 6,041 64.08% 3,252 34.50% 134 1.42% 2,789 29.58% 9,427
Menominee 296 18.83% 1,266 80.53% 10 0.64% -970 -61.70% 1,572
Milwaukee 138,022 29.74% 316,292 68.15% 9,793 2.11% -178,270 -38.41% 464,107
Monroe 14,563 62.32% 8,476 36.27% 330 1.41% 6,087 26.05% 23,369
Oconto 17,675 70.95% 6,967 27.97% 270 1.08% 10,708 42.98% 24,912
Oneida 14,455 58.06% 10,080 40.49% 360 1.45% 4,375 17.57% 24,895
Outagamie 60,827 54.34% 49,438 44.17% 1,667 1.49% 11,389 10.17% 111,932
Ozaukee 34,504 54.36% 27,874 43.92% 1,094 1.72% 6,630 10.44% 63,472
Pepin 2,798 64.26% 1,523 34.98% 33 0.76% 1,275 29.28% 4,354
Pierce 14,417 56.78% 10,171 40.06% 804 3.17% 4,246 16.72% 25,392
Polk 18,296 64.83% 9,567 33.90% 359 1.27% 8,729 30.93% 28,222
Portage 20,987 48.52% 21,503 49.71% 768 1.78% -516 -1.19% 43,258
Price 5,763 65.07% 3,005 33.93% 88 0.99% 2,758 31.14% 8,856
Racine 56,347 52.33% 49,721 46.17% 1,618 1.50% 6,626 6.16% 107,686
Richland 5,207 55.85% 3,985 42.74% 131 1.41% 1,222 13.11% 9,323
Rock 40,218 45.54% 46,642 52.82% 1,450 1.64% -6,424 -7.28% 88,310
Rusk 5,660 68.44% 2,516 30.42% 94 1.14% 3,144 38.02% 8,270
St. Croix 35,537 58.60% 23,870 39.36% 1,235 2.04% 11,667 19.24% 60,642
Sauk 18,798 50.02% 18,172 48.35% 614 1.63% 626 1.67% 37,584
Sawyer 6,422 57.65% 4,599 41.28% 119 1.07% 1,823 16.37% 11,140
Shawano 15,850 67.45% 7,336 31.22% 314 1.34% 8,514 36.23% 23,500
Sheboygan 38,763 57.37% 27,735 41.05% 1,064 1.57% 11,028 16.32% 67,562
Taylor 8,209 73.39% 2,823 25.24% 154 1.38% 5,386 48.15% 11,186
Trempealeau 9,661 60.08% 6,219 38.68% 199 1.24% 3,442 21.40% 16,079
Vernon 8,807 53.03% 7,514 45.24% 288 1.73% 1,293 7.79% 16,609
Vilas 9,837 60.97% 6,119 37.92% 179 1.11% 3,718 23.05% 16,135
Walworth 36,603 60.40% 23,161 38.22% 833 1.37% 13,442 22.18% 60,597
Washburn 6,962 63.42% 3,867 35.22% 149 1.36% 3,095 28.20% 10,978
Washington 61,604 67.40% 28,504 31.18% 1,299 1.42% 33,100 36.22% 91,407
Waukesha 162,768 59.02% 108,478 39.33% 4,541 1.65% 54,290 19.69% 275,787
Waupaca 20,093 66.09% 9,947 32.72% 363 1.19% 10,146 33.37% 30,403
Waushara 9,625 67.01% 4,571 31.82% 167 1.16% 5,054 35.19% 14,363
Winnebago 49,179 51.57% 44,660 46.83% 1,532 1.61% 4,519 4.74% 95,371
Wood 24,997 59.21% 16,599 39.32% 620 1.47% 8,398 19.89% 42,216
Totals 1,697,626 49.60% 1,668,229 48.74% 57,063 1.67% 29,397 0.86% 3,422,918

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[202]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 46.89% 51.39% Bryan Steil
2nd 69.16% 29.12% Mark Pocan
3rd 45.46% 52.84% Derrick Van Orden
4th 74.68% 23.28% Gwen Moore
5th 38.15% 60.24% Scott L. Fitzgerald
6th 41.02% 57.46% Glenn Grothman
7th 37.94% 60.40% Tom Tiffany
8th 41.17% 57.40% Tony Wied

Analysis

A former Blue Wall state in the Upper Midwest partly located in the Rust Belt, Wisconsin is a clearly purple state today. In 2016, Donald Trump very narrowly won Wisconsin by 0.77% in his sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt, becoming the first Republican since Reagan in his 1984 landslide to win the state's electoral votes; but in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden flipped Wisconsin back into the Democratic column by an even more narrow 0.63%.

With this election, Door County lost its longstanding bellwether status by voting for the losing candidate for the first time since 1992. Trump is the first Republican to ever win without Door County. Trump flipped back Sauk County, which he had won in 2016, maintaining the county's bellwether streak of voting for the statewide winner since 1992.

This was the third consecutive election where Wisconsin was decided by less than one percentage point, the longest such streak for any state. The state had the closest presidential race of all states considering percentage of difference and second-closest margin regarding raw votes after New Hampshire, third-closest margin if Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is included. It also marked the first time since 1988 in which Wisconsin was the most Democratic-leaning of the three Rust Belt swing states (including Michigan and Pennsylvania).

Harris gained in the three WOW counties compared to Biden in 2020, winning the highest percentage of the vote in them since 1976. Trump gained in the rest of the state, particularly in the Driftless Area in Southwest Wisconsin. Despite her loss, this was Harris's best performance among the seven swing states, and unlike in 2016 or 2020, Wisconsin actually voted to the left of the country as a whole (the victory margin for Trump was less than that of America as a whole).

Due to Trump's 0.9% margin of victory being less than his nationwide 1.5% margin, Wisconsin actually leaned slightly more Democratic than the nation as a whole, unlike 2016 and 2020.

Notably, Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected on the same ballot. This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson was re-elected as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state in 1968.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Candidate has suspended campaign, but will stay on the ballot.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ a b c d "Other" with 3%
  6. ^ a b c d e "Other" with 2%
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^ a b "Another Candidate" with 1%
  9. ^ a b c "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
  10. ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 4%
  11. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  12. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 1%
  13. ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
  14. ^ a b c d "Other" with 1%
  15. ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
  16. ^ a b c d e f Randall Terry (C) & Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0% each
  17. ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Wisconsin.
  18. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  19. ^ a b Randall Terry (C) with 1%; Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
  20. ^ Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  21. ^ Randall Terry (C) with 1%
  22. ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
  23. ^ "Another candidate" with 12%
  24. ^ "Another candidate" with 11%
  25. ^ "Another candidate" with 13%
  26. ^ "Another candidate" with 9%
  27. ^ No Labels candidate
  28. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  29. ^ a b c d Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  30. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  31. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  32. ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
  33. ^ a b Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
  34. ^ "Someone else" with 12%
  35. ^ Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  36. ^ Sonski and Onak were nominated by the American Solidarity Party, but registered as independent write-in candidates because the party was not recognized by the Wisconsin Secretary of State.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  2. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  4. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  6. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  7. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Fields of Freedom Alliance
  9. ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
  10. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
  12. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Wisconsin Watch
  13. ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by AARP
  14. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by Platform Communications
  16. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  17. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  18. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  19. ^ a b Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  20. ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  21. ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
  23. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  24. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
  25. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  26. ^ Poll conducted for Protect Our Care
  27. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  28. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  29. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  30. ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  31. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  32. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  33. ^ a b Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
  34. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  35. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Daily Mail
  36. ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
  37. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates

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