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2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout78.49% (of registered voters) Decrease1.41 pp
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,770,242 1,582,860
Percentage 52.22% 46.69%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Arizona was considered a crucial swing state in 2024.

The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump.[2] Formerly a moderately red state in the American Southwest, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a major drop in margin of Republican victory in the traditional GOP stronghold compared to previous cycles, despite an overall more favorable year for Republicans than the previous two presidential elections. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population, the state is now considered a purple state.[3][4] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, but his petition was eventually withdrawn.[5][6]

Arizona was the final state to be called in the election, with Donald Trump winning by 5.5%, surpassing the margins predicted by most polls.[7] This was the largest margin of victory since 2012 for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the first time since 2012 that a presidential candidate won the state with an absolute majority of the vote. It was Trump's largest margin of victory in his sweep of the seven swing states, and Trump's strongest performance in a state won by Biden in 2020.

Background

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden ran for re-election to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee.[8] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris (from neighboring California), who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[9]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.[10]

Arizona Democratic primary, March 19, 2024[11]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 375,110 89.3% 72 72
Marianne Williamson 15,844 3.8%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 11,611 2.8%
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn) 6,128 1.5%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn) 4,976 1.2%
Jason Palmer 3,752 0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) 2,753 0.7%
Total: 420,174 100.0% 72 13 85


Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.[10]

Arizona Republican primary, March 19, 2024[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 492,299 78.84% 43 43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 110,966 17.77%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 10,131 1.62%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 5,078 0.81%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 2,479 0.40%
David Stuckenberg 1,367 0.22%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 891 0.14%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 714 0.11%
John Anthony Castro 505 0.08%
Total: 624,430 100.00% 43 43

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".[13][14]

General election

Candidates

The following candidates have qualified and were on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona.[15]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Tossup November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNN[19] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNalysis[20] Tilt R (flip) November 4, 2024
The Economist[21] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
538[22] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[23] Tossup November 3, 2024
NBC News[24] Tossup November 4, 2024

Election rule changes

Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered.[25] In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.[26]

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270ToWin[27] October 22 – November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 46.8% 48.4% 4.8% Trump +1.6%
538[28] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 46.8% 48.9% 4.3% Trump +2.1%
Silver Bulletin[29] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 46.9% 49.3% 3.8% Trump +2.4%
The Hill/DDHQ[30] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 47.3% 49.9% 2.8% Trump +2.6%
Average 47.0% 49.1% 3.9% Trump +2.1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[31] November 3–5, 2024 1,636 (RV) ± 2.4% 46% 47% 7%
49%[c] 51% –
1,468 (LV) 47% 49% 4%
49%[c] 51% –
AtlasIntel[32] November 3–4, 2024 875 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 52% 1%
Victory Insights[33] November 2–3, 2024 750 (LV) – 48% 49% 3%[d]
Trafalgar Group (R)[34] November 1–3, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 49% 4%[e]
Patriot Polling[35] November 1–3, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 51% 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[36] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 49% 5%[d]
AtlasIntel[37] November 1–2, 2024 967 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 52% 2%
Emerson College[38] October 30 – November 2, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 50% 2%[f]
48%[c] 51% 1%[f]
New York Times/Siena College[39] October 25 – November 2, 2024 1,025 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% 8%
1,025 (LV) 45% 49% 6%
ActiVote[40] October 8 – November 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 51% –
SoCal Strategies (R)[41][A] October 30–31, 2024 750 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 50% 1%
AtlasIntel[42] October 30–31, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[43] October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 47% 50% 3%
YouGov[44][B] October 25–31, 2024 880 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 50% 1%
856 (LV) 49% 50% 1%
Morning Consult[45] October 21−30, 2024 666 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][C] October 25–29, 2024 803 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%[d]
AtlasIntel[47] October 25–29, 2024 1,458 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 2%
Mitchell Research & Communications[48] October 28, 2024 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 50% 2%
RABA Research[49] October 25–27, 2024 589 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%[g]
Trafalgar Group (R)[50] October 24–26, 2024 1,094 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 6%[d]
CES/YouGov[51] October 1–25, 2024 2,077 (A) – 49% 49% 2%
2,066 (LV) 47% 51% 2%
Marist College[52] October 17–22, 2024 1,329 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% 2%[h]
1,193 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 50% 1%[h]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[53] October 20–21, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 3%[e]
HighGround[54] October 19–20, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 47% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[55] October 16–20, 2024 915 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
861 (LV) 49% 49% 2%
University of Arizona/Truedot[56] October 12–20, 2024 846 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 45% 9%[i]
AtlasIntel[57] October 12–17, 2024 1,440 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
CBS News/YouGov[58] October 11−16, 2024 1,435 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 51% 1%
Morning Consult[45] October 6−15, 2024 653 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%
Washington Post/Schar School[59] September 30 – October 15, 2024 580 (RV) ± 5.0% 44% 50% 6%
580 (LV) 46% 49% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[60] October 10–13, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 6%[j]
New York Times/Siena College[61] October 7–10, 2024 808 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 51% 4%
808 (LV) 46% 51% 3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[62][D] October 6–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 49% 5%
Emerson College[63] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%[f]
48%[c] 51% 1%[f]
Wall Street Journal[64] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 48% 46% 6%
ActiVote[65] September 6 – October 8, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 51% –
SoCal Strategies (R)[66][A] October 5–7, 2024 735 (LV) – 49% 48% 3%
RMG Research[67][E] September 30 – October 2, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 50% 4%[k]
46% 50% 4%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[68][F] September 24 – October 2, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[69][G] September 24 – October 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 50% 2%[e]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[70] September 29–30, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 1%[e]
HighGround[71][H] September 26–29, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% 6%
National Research[72][I] September 25–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% 5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[73][J] September 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 47% 5%
Emerson College[74][K] September 27–28, 2024 920 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 50% 3%[f]
48%[c] 52% –
AtlasIntel[75] September 20–25, 2024 946 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76] September 19–25, 2024 409 (LV) – 50% 48% 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] September 19–25, 2024 977 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 3%
926 (LV) 50% 47% 3%
Fox News[78] September 20−24, 2024 1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 2%
764 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 51% 1%
Marist College[79] September 19−24, 2024 1,416 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 50% 2%[h]
1,264 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 50% 1%[h]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[80][C] September 19–22, 2024 1,030 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%[d]
New York Times/Siena College[81] September 17–21, 2024 713 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 49% 6%
713 (LV) 45% 50% 5%
Emerson College[82] September 15–18, 2024 868 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 49% 3%[l]
49%[c] 50% 1%[l]
Morning Consult[45] September 9−18, 2024 862 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[83] September 11–12, 2024 1,088 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% 7%[j]
Data Orbital[84][L] September 7–9, 2024 550 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 46% 8%
Morning Consult[45] August 30 – September 8, 2024 901 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%
TIPP Insights[85][M] September 3–5, 2024 1,015 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 46% 8%
949 (LV) 47% 47% 6%
Patriot Polling[86] September 1–3, 2024 804 (RV) – 47% 49% 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[87] August 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%
University of Arizona/Truedot[88] August 28–31, 2024 1,155 (RV) – 42% 46% 12%[m]
Emerson College[89] August 25–28, 2024 720 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 50% 7%
48%[c] 51% 1%[f]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] August 23–26, 2024 776 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
758 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Fox News[91] August 23–26, 2024 1,014 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% 1%
Spry Strategies (R)[92][N] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[93][O] August 13–17, 2024 1,187 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
Noble Predictive Insights[94] August 12–16, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
Focaldata[95] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 51% –
Strategies 360[96] August 7–14, 2024 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 47% 46% 7%
New York Times/Siena College[97] August 8–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% 7%
677 (LV) 50% 45% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[98] August 6–8, 2024 1,092 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 5%
Navigator Research (D)[99] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[100] July 26 – August 8, 2024 435 (LV) – 48% 46% 6%
HighGround[101] July 30 – August 5, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 42% 14%[n]
Public Policy Polling (D)[102][P] July 29–30, 2024 618 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 49% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[103][Q] July 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 48% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[104] July 24–28, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 4%
Emerson College[105] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 49% 7%
47%[c] 53% –
July 21, 2024 Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[106] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 48% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 44% 52% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 51% 7%
Emerson College[109] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 48% 12%
New York Times/Siena College[110] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 9%
603 (LV) 43% 48% 9%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Others/
Undecided
[o] 		Margin
Race to the WH[111] through October 10, 2024 October 15, 2024 46.4% 48.8% 1.0% — 0.8% 3.0% Trump +2.4%
270toWin[112] October 2 – 12, 2024 October 12, 2024 47.4% 47.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 3.5% Trump +0.2%
Average 46.9% 48.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.2% Trump +1.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[31] November 3–5, 2024 1,636 (RV) ± 2.4% 44% 47% 1% 1% – 7%
46%[c] 50% 2% 2% – –
1,468 (LV) 46% 49% 1% 1% – 3%
47%[c] 50% 2% 1% – –
AtlasIntel[32] November 3–4, 2024 875 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% – 1% 0% 2%
AtlasIntel[37] November 1–2, 2024 967 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 52% – 1% 1% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[39] October 25 – November 2, 2024 1,025 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 47% – 3% 2% 6%
1,025 (LV) 44% 48% – 2% 1% 5%
Focaldata[113] October 3 – November 1, 2024 1,779 (LV) – 48% 49% – 1% 1% 1%
1,603 (RV) ± 2.3% 49% 47% – 2% 1% 1%
1,779 (A) – 49% 47% – 2% 1% 1%
AtlasIntel[42] October 30–31, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% – 1% 1% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] October 28–31, 2024 652 (LV) – 47% 48% – 1% 1% 3%
YouGov[44][B] October 25–31, 2024 880 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 48% 0% 1% – 4%
856 (LV) 48% 48% 0% 0% – 4%
Noble Predictive Insights[115] October 28–30, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% – 2% 0% 3%
Data for Progress (D)[116] October 25–30, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% – 1% 0% 4%
AtlasIntel[47] October 25–29, 2024 1,458 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% – 1% 0% 2%
Mitchell Research & Communications[48] October 28, 2024 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 50% – 0% 1% 1%
Data Orbital[117] October 26–28, 2024 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 50% – 1% 1% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[118] October 25–27, 2024 901 (LV) – 47% 49% – 1% 1% 2%
J.L. Partners[119] October 24–26, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 49% – 0% 1% 2%[d]
CNN/SSRS[120] October 21–26, 2024 781 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% – 1% 2% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121] October 20–22, 2024 710 (LV) – 46% 48% – 1% 1% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[55] October 16–20, 2024 915 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% – 1% 2% 1%
861 (LV) 48% 48% – 1% 2% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] October 16–18, 2024 691 (LV) – 46% 49% – 1% 1% 3%
AtlasIntel[57] October 12–17, 2024 1,440 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% – 1% 0% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[123] October 12–14, 2024 1,141 (LV) – 46% 48% – 1% 1% 4%
New York Times/Siena College[61] October 7–10, 2024 808 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% – 2% 1% 4%
808 (LV) 45% 50% – 1% 0% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] September 27 – October 2, 2024 555 (LV) – 47% 48% – 1% 1% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[69][R] September 24 – October 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 49% – 1% 0% 3%
AtlasIntel[75] September 20–25, 2024 946 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% – 0% – 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76] September 19–25, 2024 409 (LV) – 50% 47% – 1% – 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] September 19–25, 2024 977 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% – 1% 2% 2%
926 (LV) 49% 46% – 1% 2% 2%
Fox News[78] September 20−24, 2024 1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 1% 1% 2% −
764 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% 0% 1% 2% −
Suffolk University/USA Today[125] September 19−24, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% – 1% 1% 8%
New York Times/Siena College[81] September 17–21, 2024 713 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 47% – 2% 3% 6%
713 (LV) 43% 48% – 2% 2% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] September 16–19, 2024 789 (LV) – 47% 47% – 1% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] September 6–9, 2024 765 (LV) – 46% 47% – 1% 1% 5%
TIPP Insights[85][M] September 3–5, 2024 1,015 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 46% 1% 1% – 6%
949 (LV) 48% 48% 1% 1% – 2%
YouGov[128][B] August 23 – September 3, 2024 900 (RV) ± 4.2% 45% 47% 1% 1% – 6%[d]
CNN/SSRS[129] August 23–29, 2024 682 (LV) ± 4.7% 44% 49% – 2% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[130] August 25–28, 2024 530 (LV) – 45% 46% – 1% 1% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] August 23–26, 2024 776 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% – 0% 2% 2%
758 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% – 0% 2% 2%
Fox News[91] August 23–26, 2024 1,014 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 1% 1% 2% 1%


Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Wall Street Journal[64] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 47% 45% 0% 0% 1% 1% 6%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[73][J] September 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 47% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Spry Strategies (R)[92] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 2% – 1% – 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[93][O] August 13–17, 2024 1,187 (LV) – 44% 45% 7% 1% 0% – 3%
Focaldata[95] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 46% 7% – 0% 0% 2%
702 (RV) 45% 45% 9% – 0% 0% 1%
702 (A) 42% 46% 9% – 0% 0% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[131] August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) – 43% 44% 5% – 1% 1% 6%
New York Times/Siena College[97] August 8–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 42% 6% 0% 1% 2% 4%
677 (LV) 47% 43% 5% 0% 0% 1% 4%
Navigator Research (D)[99] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 5% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[100] July 26 – August 8, 2024 435 (LV) – 46% 42% 7% 1% 0% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[132] July 31 – August 3, 2024 567 (LV) – 44% 43% 4% – 0% 0% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[104] July 24–28, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 5% – 0% 2% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[133] July 22–24, 2024 510 (LV) – 43% 46% 4% – 0% 1% 6%
Emerson College[105] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 48% 5% 1% 1% 1% 4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D)[134][S] July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 46% 7% 1% 6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Peak Insights (R)[135][T] July 31 – August 5, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 44% 11% 3%
Iron Light Intelligence (R)[136][U] July 29 – August 5, 2024 600 (LV) – 43% 43% 7% 7%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D)[134][S] July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 44% 50% 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[106] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% 7%
Emerson College[137][V] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 47% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[138][W] July 5–12, 2024 1,101 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 50% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 43% 51% 6%
Echelon Insights[139][X] July 1–8, 2024 601 (LV) ± 5.0% 44% 48% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[140] July 1–5, 2024 781 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College[141][V] June 30 – July 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Remington Research Group (R)[142] June 29 – July 1, 2024 638 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[143][M] June 17–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 48% 10%
Emerson College[144] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 47% 10%
48%[c] 52% –
Rasmussen Reports (R)[145] June 11–13, 2024 750 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 47% 13%
Fox News[146] June 1–4, 2024 1,095 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[147][Y] May 28 – June 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 50% 6%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[148] May 19–21, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 18%
501 (LV) 45% 43% 12%
CBS News/YouGov[149] May 10–16, 2024 1,214 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 52% 1%
Prime Group[150][Z] May 9–16, 2024 490 (RV) – 49% 51% –
Noble Predictive Insights[151] May 7–14, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 44% 15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 49% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[152] May 6–13, 2024 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% 11%
New York Times/Siena College[153] April 28 – May 9, 2024 626 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%
626 (LV) 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College[154] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 8%
48%[c] 52% –
Kaplan Strategies[155] April 20–21, 2024 874 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[156][AA] April 13–21, 2024 630 (LV) – 40% 51% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[157] April 8–15, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 49% 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[158][D] April 7–11, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 48% 8%
The Bullfinch Group[159][AB] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 18%[p]
RABA Research[160] March 28–31, 2024 503 (RV) ± 4.4% 36% 39% 25%[q]
Wall Street Journal[161] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% 11%
Echelon Insights[162][AC] March 12–19, 2024 401 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 51% 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[163][U] March 14–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College[164] March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 8%
48%[c] 52% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[165] March 8–14, 2024 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 9%
Fox News[166] March 7–11, 2024 1,121 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 49% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[167] February 21–26, 2024 1,001 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 47% 13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] February 12–20, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College[109] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
J.L. Partners[169] January 29 – February 1, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 45% 14%
Focaldata[170] January 17–23, 2024 783 (A) – 39% 43% 18%[r]
– (LV) 41% 45% 14%[s]
– (LV) 50%[c] 50% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[171] January 16–21, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[172] December 14–18, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 50% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[173][AD] December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 41% 46% 13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[174] November 27 – December 6, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
J.L. Partners[175][AE] November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 9%
Tulchin Research (D)[176][AF] November 13–20, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 42% 16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[177] October 30 – November 7, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College[178] October 30 – November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 43% 16%
New York Times/Siena College[110] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% 7%
603 (LV) 44% 49% 7%
Noble Predictive Insights[179] October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 46% 16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[180] October 5–10, 2023 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 47% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[181] October 7–9, 2023 627 (RV) – 39% 44% 16%
Emerson College[182] August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 45% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[183][AG] July 22–24, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% 8%
Prime Group[184][Z] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 48% 52% –
31% 41% 28%[t]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[185][AG] June 17–19, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[186][AG] May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 44% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[187][AG] April 11–13, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[188][AH] March 13–14, 2023 1,001 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 50% 11%
OH Predictive Insights[189] January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 39% 37% 24%
Blueprint Polling (D)[190] January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 35% 38% 27%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[191] November 8–9, 2022 874 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% 8%
Targoz Market Research[192] November 2–6, 2022 560 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 53% 2%
Emerson College[193] October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College[194] September 6–7, 2022 627 (LV) ± 3.9% 41% 44% 15%
Echelon Insights[195][X] August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 47% 10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[196] May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[197][D] November 11–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 51% 6%
Bendixen/Amandi International[198] June 17–23, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 44% 5%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D)[134][S] July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 45% 7% – 2% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[199] July 16–18, 2024 456 (LV) – 40% 44% 7% – 1% 8%[u]
Emerson College[137][V] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 46% 6% 1% 1% 10%[u]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[138][W] July 5–12, 2024 1,101 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 46% 9% 1% 1% 6%
YouGov[200][B] July 4–12, 2024 900 (RV) ± 3.9% 37% 44% 5% 1% 2% 11%
J.L. Partners[201] July 10–11, 2024 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46% 4% – 2% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[202] July 8–10, 2024 419 (LV) – 39% 43% 7% – 1% 10%[v]
Echelon Insights[139][X] July 1–8, 2024 601 (LV) ± 5.0% 39% 41% 11% 1% 0% 8%[u]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[140] July 1–5, 2024 781 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 45% 9% 1% 0% 7%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[143][M] June 17–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 42% 13% – 3% 10%[w]
Emerson College[144] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 43% 8% 1% 1% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[145] June 11–13, 2024 750 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 41% 10% 2% 1% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[203] June 8–11, 2024 430 (LV) – 38% 40% 6% – 1% 15%[v]
Fox News[146] June 1–4, 2024 1,095 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 46% 8% 1% 1% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[147][AI] May 28 – June 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 45% 11% 0% 3% 4%
Prime Group[150][Z] May 9–16, 2024 490 (RV) – 40% 44% 11% 3% 2% –
Noble Predictive Insights[151] May 7–14, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 43% 8% 1% 2% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 45% 7% 1% 2% 5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[152] May 6–13, 2024 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 37% 41% 10% 2% 1% 9%
New York Times/Siena College[153] April 28 – May 9, 2024 626 (RV) ± 4.0% 33% 42% 10% 0% 2% 13%
626 (LV) 35% 44% 8% 0% 2% 11%
Emerson College[154] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 9% 1% 1% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[157] April 8–15, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 7% 2% 0% 5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[158][D] April 7–11, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 37% 42% 10% – 2% 9%
Wall Street Journal[161] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 34% 39% 13% 2% 1% 11%[x]
Emerson College[164] March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 46% 7% 1% 2% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[165] March 8–14, 2024 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 12% 2% 1% 5%
Fox News[166] March 7–11, 2024 1,121 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 43% 10% 1% 2% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] February 12–20, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 45% 9% 1% 1% 8%
Emerson College[109] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 8% 1% 1% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[204] January 16–21, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 35% 43% 10% 1% 1% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[173][AD] December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 32% 40% 9% 3% 2% 14%[y]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[205] November 27 – December 6, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 40% 10% 1% 1% 11%
J.L. Partners[175][AE] November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 44% 5% 1% 0% 12%[z]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
1983 Labs[206] June 28–30, 2024 492 (LV) ± 4.4% 33% 48% 8% 11%[aa]
P2 Insights[207][AJ] June 11–20, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 36% 47% 7% 10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[148] May 19–21, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 9% 15%
501 (LV) 39% 43% 7% 11%
P2 Insights[208][AJ] May 13–21, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 38% 41% 9% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[209] May 2–4, 2024 625 (LV) – 42% 44% 7% 7%[ab]
Data Orbital[210] April 27–29, 2024 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 38.8% 38.1% 13.5% 9.6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[211] March 14–17, 2024 516 (LV) – 41% 44% 7% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[212] December 28–30, 2023 808 (LV) – 35% 41% 10% 14%
VCreek/AMG (R)[173][AD] December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 35% 40% 16% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[213] November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 33% 40% 10% 17%
New York Times/Siena College[214] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 33% 33% 26% 8%
603 (LV) 34% 34% 24% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[181] October 7–9, 2023 627 (LV) – 37% 42% 8% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
North Star Opinion Research[163][U] March 14–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 37% 18% 2% 10%
J.L. Partners[175][AE] November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.4% 34% 39% 4% 1% 22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[215] October 30 – November 7, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 40% 11% 1% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Green 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Emerson College[182] August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 42% 4% 13%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[156][AA] April 13–21, 2024 630 (LV) – 34% 52% 14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[156][AA] April 13–21, 2024 630 (LV) – 39% 46% 15%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 44% 51% 5%
Emerson College[109] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 47% 19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 45% 49% 6%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		JB
Pritzker
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 41% 47% 12%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 43% 46% 11%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Pete
Buttigieg
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 46% 49% 5%

Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[134][S] July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 45% 6% 1% 5%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[213] November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 33% 25% 19% 23%[ac]

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R)[173][AD] December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 30% 37% 33%
New York Times/Siena College[216] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 38% 45% 17%
603 (LV) 37% 46% 17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[213] November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 34% 27% 17% 22%[ad]

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[216] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 46% 13%
603 (LV) 42% 46% 12%
Noble Predictive Insights[179] October 25 – 31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 40% 23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[183][AG] July 22–24, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 39% 46% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[185][AG] June 17–19, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 46% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[186][AG] May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 47% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[187][AG] April 11–13, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
OH Predictive Insights[189] January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 35% 36% 29%
Blueprint Polling (D)[190] January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 37% 43% 20%
Echelon Insights[195][X] August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 43% 14%

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[186][AG] May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 43% 12%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Arizona[217]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
1,770,242 52.22% Increase 3.16%
Democratic
1,582,860 46.69% Decrease 2.67%
Green
18,319 0.54% Increase 0.49%
Libertarian
17,898 0.53% Decrease 0.99%
Socialism and Liberation Claudia De la Cruz (write-in)
Karina Garcia (write-in) 		689 0.02% Increase 0.01%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in)
Crystal Ellis (write-in) 		77 0.00% N/A
Constitution Joel Skousen[ae] (write-in)
Rik Combs (write-in) 		53 0.00% Steady
Independent DaWanda Shelton (write-in)
Carrie Ann Serra (write-in) 		19 0.00% N/A
Independent President R. Boddie (write-in)
Eric Stoneham (write-in) 		4 0.00% Steady
Total votes 3,390,161 100.00% N/A

By county

County[218] Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Apache 12,795 39.86% 18,872 58.79% 434 1.35% -6,077 -18.93% 32,101
Cochise 35,936 60.77% 22,296 37.70% 903 1.53% 13,640 23.07% 59,135
Coconino 27,576 39.18% 41,504 58.98% 1,294 1.84% -13,928 -19.80% 70,374
Gila 18,901 68.24% 8,504 30.70% 293 1.06% 10,397 37.54% 27,698
Graham 11,177 73.46% 3,867 25.42% 171 1.12% 7,310 48.04% 15,215
Greenlee 2,308 69.60% 954 28.77% 54 1.63% 1,354 40.83% 3,316
La Paz 5,470 71.57% 2,101 27.49% 72 0.94% 3,369 44.08% 7,643
Maricopa 1,051,531 51.01% 980,016 47.54% 30,027 1.46% 71,515 3.47% 2,061,574
Mohave 85,683 77.41% 24,081 21.75% 929 0.84% 61,602 55.66% 110,693
Navajo 29,480 57.98% 20,754 40.82% 613 1.21% 8,726 17.16% 50,847
Pima 214,669 41.68% 292,450 56.78% 7,908 1.54% -77,781 -15.10% 515,027
Pinal 126,926 60.39% 80,656 38.38% 2,591 1.23% 46,270 22.01% 210,173
Santa Cruz 7,699 40.17% 11,265 58.77% 203 1.06% -3,566 -18.60% 19,167
Yavapai 99,346 66.48% 48,717 32.60% 1,365 0.91% 50,629 33.88% 149,428
Yuma 40,745 59.63% 26,823 39.25% 767 1.12% 13,922 20.38% 68,335
Totals 1,770,242 52.05% 1,582,860 46.54% 47,624 1.40% 187,382 5.51% 3,400,726

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won 6 out of 9 congressional districts.[219][user-generated source]

District Harris Trump Representative elected
1st 47.7% 50.9% David Schweikert
2nd 42.0% 56.9% Eli Crane
3rd 68.9% 29.3% Ruben Gallego (118th Congress)
Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress)
4th 52.3% 45.8% Greg Stanton
5th 39.3% 59.2% Andy Biggs
6th 48.9% 49.7% Juan Ciscomani
7th 60.3% 38.2% Raúl Grijalva
8th 41.2% 57.5% Debbie Lesko (118th Congress)
Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress)
9th 34.0% 65.0% Paul Gosar

Analysis

Trump received more than 1.77 million votes, setting a new record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of statewide elections in Arizona. Trump reclaimed the largest county in the state, Maricopa, although it once again voted to the left of the state, a trend that started in 2016 and foreshadowed his 2020 loss of the state. Harris did not get over 60% of the vote in a single county.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ^ a b c d e f g "Other" with 2%
  5. ^ a b c d "Other" with 1%
  6. ^ a b c d e f "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  8. ^ a b c d "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  10. ^ a b "Other" with 3%
  11. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  12. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  15. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  16. ^ Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 15%
  18. ^ "Another candidate" with 12%
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 11%
  20. ^ No Labels candidate
  21. ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  22. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  23. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  24. ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%
  25. ^ Joe Manchin with 4%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 12%
  27. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  28. ^ Jill Stein (G) with 2%
  29. ^ "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
  30. ^ "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
  31. ^ The Constitution Party did not have ballot access in Arizona. Joel Skousen and Rik Combs registered as write-in candidates representing the party instead of the national ticket led by Randall Terry and Stephen Broden.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  2. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  4. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  6. ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
  7. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the Democracy Defense Project and Echo Canyon Consulting
  10. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
  13. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  15. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  16. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
  17. ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  18. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  19. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  20. ^ Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  21. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
  22. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  23. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  24. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  25. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  26. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  27. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  28. ^ Poll sponsored by Independent Center
  29. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  30. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
  31. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Daily Mail
  32. ^ Poll sponsored by Stand for Children Arizona
  33. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
  34. ^ Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
  35. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  36. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates

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