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2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election

2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election
← 2010 November 4, 2014 2018 →
 
Nominee Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Robert J. Healey
Party Democratic Republican Moderate
Popular vote 131,899 117,428 69,278
Percentage 40.70% 36.24% 21.38%
Raimondo:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Fung:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Healey:      30–40%      40–50%
Tie:       No Votes:      
Governor before election

Lincoln Chafee
Democratic

Elected Governor

Gina Raimondo
Democratic

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The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Rhode Island, concurrently with the election of Rhode Island's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic governor Lincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominated Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo and the Republicans nominated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Also on the ballot were Robert J. Healey of the Moderate Party and two Independent candidates. Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992 (Chafee had been elected as an Independent in 2010, switching to the Democratic Party during his term). Raimondo became the first female governor in Rhode Island history.

Background

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.

After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat.[1] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013, that he would not run for re-election.[2][3] Chafee thus became just the fourth governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924.[4]

Democratic primary

Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticised Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split between whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support for charter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticised for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras won Central Falls and Pell won Burrillville and Foster.[5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Giroux 		Clay
Pell 		Gina
Raimondo 		Angel
Taveras 		Other/
Undecided
Fleming & Associates[14] August 11–14, 2014 503 ± 4.38% 1.4% 25.6% 32.2% 26.8% 12.9%
Fleming & Associates[15] May 27–30, 2014 506 ± 4.38% 1.6% 11.5% 29.2% 33.4% 24.3%
Brown University[16] April 3–5, 2014 395 ± 4.9% — 9.6% 29.4% 25.8% 35.2%
Fleming & Associates[17] February 3–6, 2014 503 ± 4.38% 1.2% 14.7% 27% 31.2% 25.9%
Brown University[18] October 2–5, 2013 433 ± 4.5% — — 42% 33.6% 24.4%
Garin-Hart-Yang^[19] September 10–12, 2013 400 ± 5% — — 30% 49% 21%
  • ^ Internal poll for the Angel Taveras Campaign
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Lincoln
Chafee 		Ernie
Almonte 		Gina
Raimondo 		Angel
Taveras 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 320 ± 5.5% 22% 11% 35% 19% 12%
— 9% 44% 35% 13%

Results

Results by municipality:
Raimondo
  •   Raimondo—30–40%
  •   Raimondo—40–50%
  •   Raimondo—50–60%
  •   Raimondo—60–70%
Pell
  •   Pell—30–40%
  •   Pell—40–50%
Taveras
  •   Taveras—50–60%
Democratic primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gina Raimondo 53,990 42.15
Democratic Angel Taveras 37,326 29.14
Democratic Clay Pell 34,515 26.94
Democratic Todd Giroux 2,264 1.77
Total votes 128,095 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Block 		Allan
Fung 		Other/
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.*[28] April 2014 300 ± ? 46% 37% 17%
Brown University[16] April 3–5, 2014 86 ± 10.6% 36% 31.4% 38.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.*[28] October 2013 ? ± ? 25% 53% 22%
  • * Internal poll for the Ken Block campaign

Results

Results by county:
  Fung—50–60%
  Block—50–60%
Results by municipality:
Fung
  •   Fung—50–60%
  •   Fung—60–70%
  •   Fung—70–80%
Block
  •   Block—50–60%
  •   Block—60–70%
Republican primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Allan Fung 17,530 54.9
Republican Ken Block 14,399 45.1
Total votes 31,929 100.0

Other parties

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Ken Block (Moderate), nominee for governor in 2010 (switched to Republican primary)[22]
  • James Spooner (Moderate)[31]

Removed from ballot

  • Thomas Davis (Independent)
  • Christopher Reynolds (Independent)
  • Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)

Declined

  • Gina Raimondo (Independent), Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (won the Democratic primary)[32]

General election

Campaign

Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican Allan Fung over her, 42% to 30%.[33] Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received.[34] He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race."[35]

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[36] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Lean D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[38] Tilt D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[39] Tossup November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Gina
Raimondo (D) 		Allan
Fung (R) 		Robert J.
Healey (M) 		Other Undecided
Brown University[40] October 25–26, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 40% 39% 13% 1%[41] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[42] October 16–23, 2014 866 ± 6% 40% 35% — 4% 21%
Brown University[43] October 14–17, 2014 1,129 ± 2.9% 42% 31% 9% 1%[44] 18%
Fleming & Associates[45] October 6–9, 2014 505 ± 4% 42% 36% 8% 1%[46] 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[47] September 20–October 1, 2014 724 ± 4% 41% 38% — 2% 19%
Rasmussen Reports[48] September 23–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 42% 37% — 11% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies*[49] September 10–11, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 42% 42% — — 16%
Brown University[18] October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 3.9% 38% 36% — — 27%
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 46% 27% — 12%[50] 14%
  • * Internal poll for the Allan Fung campaign
Hypothetical polling

With Raimondo

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Gina
Raimondo (D) 		Brendan
Doherty (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 44% 32% 10% 14%

With Taveras

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Angel
Taveras (D) 		Ken
Block (R) 		Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[51] July 5–24, 2014 919 ± 3.4% 49% 24% 15% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Angel
Taveras (D) 		Brendan
Doherty (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 39% 35% 13% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Angel
Taveras (D) 		Allan
Fung (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[52] August 18–September 2, 2014 764 ± 4% 33% 33% — 20% 14%
Brown University[18] October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 3.9% 42% 33% — — 26%
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 37% 31% 15% — 17%

With Chafee

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Lincoln
Chafee (D) 		Brendan
Doherty (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 35% 39% 13% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Lincoln
Chafee (D) 		Allan
Fung (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 32% 36% 16% 15%

Four-way race

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Lincoln
Chafee (I) 		Gina
Raimondo (D) 		Brendan
Doherty (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 22% 32% 28% 8% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Lincoln
Chafee (I) 		Gina
Raimondo (D) 		Allan
Fung (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 21% 35% 23% 10% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Lincoln
Chafee (I) 		Angel
Taveras (D) 		Brendan
Doherty (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 23% 26% 31% 10% 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Lincoln
Chafee (I) 		Angel
Taveras (D) 		Allan
Fung (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 20% 26% 26% 13% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Gina
Raimondo (D) 		Angel
Taveras (D) 		Allan
Fung (R) 		Ken
Block (I) 		Undecided
Brown University[18] October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 4.5% 27% 21% 19% 9% 24%

Results

Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014[53]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Gina Raimondo 131,899 40.70% +17.65%
Republican Allan Fung 117,428 36.24% +2.67%
Moderate Robert J. Healey 69,278 21.38% +14.91%
Independent Kate Fletcher 3,483 1.07% N/A
Independent Leon Kayarian 1,228 0.38% N/A
Write-in 739 0.23% N/A
Turnout 324,055 100% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

Gina Raimondo
Democratic 		Allan Fung
Republican 		Robert J. Healey
Moderate 		Others Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Bristol 7,312 39.88% 4,806 26.21% 6,060 33.05% 158 0.86% 18,336
Kent 20,176 34.19% 23,009 38.99% 14,937 25.31% 893 1.51% 59,015
Newport 12,888 43.74% 10,122 34.35% 5,898 20.01% 560 1.90% 29,468
Providence 73,262 43.16% 61,519 36.24% 32,086 18.90% 2,883 1.70% 169,750
Washington 18,261 38.46% 17,972 37.85% 10,297 21.68% 956 2.01% 47,486

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

By municipality

Gina Raimondo
Democratic 		Allan Fung
Republican 		Robert J. Healey
Moderate 		Others Total
Municipality Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Barrington 3,566 49.6% 2,022 28.1% 1,554 21.6% 50 0.7% 7,192
Bristol 2,628 35.7% 1,959 26.6% 2,709 36.8% 75 1.0% 7,368
Burrillville 1,334 28.6% 1,861 39.9% 1,371 29.4% 104 2.2% 4,670
Central Falls 1,359 66.4% 358 17.5% 280 13.7% 50 2.4% 2,047
Charlestown 1,177 38.0% 1,137 36.7% 728 23.5% 59 1.9% 3,101
Coventry 3,812 30.2% 4,979 39.4% 3,610 28.6% 233 1.8% 12,634
Cranston 8,159 30.2% 14,853 55.0% 3,716 13.8% 278 1.0% 27,006
Cumberland 4,661 39.9% 4,325 37.0% 2,478 21.2% 220 1.9% 11,684
East Greenwich 2,364 42.3% 2,315 41.4% 848 15.2% 65 1.2% 5,592
East Providence 5,958 43.5% 3,718 27.1% 3,804 27.8% 225 1.6% 13,705
Exeter 771 28.4% 1,147 42.3% 742 27.3% 53 2.0% 2,713
Foster 534 28.0% 732 38.3% 604 31.6% 40 2.1% 1,910
Glocester 963 27.2% 1,503 42.5% 1,019 28.8% 55 1.5% 3,540
Hopkinton 836 30.9% 1,080 39.9% 723 26.7% 68 2.3% 2,707
Jamestown 1,325 46.2% 901 31.4% 590 20.6% 63 1.9% 2,879
Johnston 3,270 32.6% 4,502 44.9% 2,126 21.2% 134 1.5% 10,032
Lincoln 2,974 36.2% 3,249 39.6% 1,870 22.8% 119 1.4% 8,212
Little Compton 674 41.2% 648 39.7% 288 17.6% 22 1.4% 1,632
Middletown 2,241 41.9% 1,902 35.5% 1,090 20.4% 119 2.3% 5,352
Narragansett 2,395 39.3% 2,410 39.6% 1,198 19.7% 84 1.4% 6,087
New Shoreham 365 50.3% 174 24.0% 173 23.8% 14 1.9% 726
Newport 3,734 49.4% 2,312 30.6% 1,331 17.6% 177 2.3% 7,554
North Kingstown 4,166 37.6% 4,305 38.8% 2,422 21.8% 195 1.7% 11,088
North Providence 4,013 36.1% 4,505 40.6% 2,414 21.7% 170 1.6% 11,102
North Smithfield 1,456 33.2% 1,870 42.7% 986 22.5% 68 1.6% 4,380
Pawtucket 7,144 51.8% 3,391 24.6% 2,960 21.5% 284 2.1% 13,779
Portsmouth 2,824 41.1% 2,477 36.1% 1,426 20.8% 136 2.0% 6,863
Providence 24,662 65.0% 8,445 22.3% 4,116 10.8% 720 1.9% 37,943
Richmond 851 29.5% 1,153 40.0% 825 28.6% 53 1.8% 2,882
Scituate 1,170 25.5% 2,203 48.1% 1,146 25.0% 63 1.3% 4,582
Smithfield 2,587 33.7% 3,241 42.2% 1,725 22.5% 119 1.6% 7,672
South Kingstown 4,606 43.1% 3,562 33.3% 2,291 21.4% 233 2.2% 10,692
Tiverton 2,090 39.8% 1,882 35.9% 1,173 22.4% 103 2.0% 5,248
Warren 1,118 29.6% 825 21.9% 1,797 47.6% 33 0.9% 3,773
Warwick 10,559 35.0% 11,383 37.7% 7,795 25.8% 428 1.4% 30,165
West Greenwich 605 25.0% 1,097 45.3% 684 28.3% 33 1.3% 2,419
West Warwick 2,836 34.6% 3,235 39.4% 2,000 24.4% 134 1.6% 8,205
Westerly 3,094 41.3% 3,004 40.1% 1,195 16.0% 197 2.6% 7,490
Woonsocket 3,018 40.6% 2,763 37.2% 1,471 19.8% 182 2.4% 7,434

References

  1. ^ Klepper, David (December 14, 2012). "RI Gov. Chafee open to running for 2nd term as Dem". Boston.com. Associated Press. Retrieved December 18, 2012.
  2. ^ Sullivan, Sean (September 4, 2013). "Why Lincoln Chafee's decision not to run for reelection is more good news for Democrats". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  3. ^ a b Taylor, Jessica (September 4, 2013). "Gov. Chafee won't run for a second term". NBC News. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  4. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (September 6, 2013). "Chafee Just 4th Rhode Island Governor Since 1790 to Pass On 2nd Term". Smart Politics. Archived from the original on October 4, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  5. ^ Stephanie Simon (September 8, 2014). "Dem divisions on display in Rhode Island race". Politico. Retrieved September 25, 2015.
  6. ^ Faccenda, Anthony (October 4, 2013). "The Scoop: Giroux to Run for Gov, RI Tea Party Talks Obamacare". GoLocalProv. Retrieved October 20, 2013.
  7. ^ The Associated Press (January 27, 2014). "Clay Pell, husband of Michelle Kwan, to run for Rhode Island gov". POLITICO. Retrieved January 27, 2014.
  8. ^ Nesi, Ted (December 18, 2013). "Gina Raimondo announces she'll run for governor". WPRI-TV. Archived from the original on December 22, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
  9. ^ Gregg, Katherine (October 26, 2013). "Providence Mayor Taveras confirms run for R.I. governor". The Providence Journal. Retrieved October 28, 2013.
  10. ^ a b DeQuattro, Dee (April 30, 2013). "Almonte to run for General Treasurer, not Governor". ABC 6. Archived from the original on May 7, 2013. Retrieved May 1, 2013.
  11. ^ Nesi, Ted (May 16, 2013). "Ernie Almonte abandons campaign for governor to run for RI treasurer". WPRI. Archived from the original on June 13, 2013. Retrieved May 17, 2013.
  12. ^ Lt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge Chafee Archived May 15, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  13. ^ "Former Congressman Bob Weygand mulling run for governor - WPRI.com Blogs". Archived from the original on September 12, 2014. Retrieved September 12, 2014.
  14. ^ Fleming & Associates
  15. ^ Fleming & Associates
  16. ^ a b Brown University
  17. ^ Fleming & Associates
  18. ^ a b c d Brown University
  19. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang^
  20. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Public Policy Polling
  21. ^ a b "2014 Statewide Primary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. Retrieved September 10, 2014.
  22. ^ a b Gregg, Katherine (October 28, 2013). "Ken Block, Moderate Party's 2010 candidate for governor, seeking GOP nomination in 2014". The Providence Journal. Retrieved October 28, 2013.
  23. ^ Rob Borkowski (November 4, 2013). "Mayor Fung Announces Bid For Governor". Woonsocket Patch. Archived from the original on November 5, 2013. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
  24. ^ Nesi, Ted (July 12, 2013). "Warwick's Avedisian may run for lieutenant governor in '14". WPRI-TV. Archived from the original on July 15, 2013. Retrieved August 10, 2013.
  25. ^ Kalunian, Kim (May 17, 2013). "NEWS: Brendan Doherty will not seek office in 2014". Archived from the original on October 29, 2013. Retrieved May 20, 2013.
  26. ^ "Dan McGowan on Twitter: "Barry Hinckley tells me he has no interest in running for Governor. Clears field for @peterbaptista"". Retrieved September 12, 2014.
  27. ^ "Robitaille says no plans to run for RI governor". NBC 10. Associated Press. October 18, 2013. Archived from the original on October 26, 2013. Retrieved October 20, 2013.
  28. ^ a b Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. *
  29. ^ Towne, Shaun (September 12, 2014). "Moderate candidate Healey could impact governor's race". WPRI. Archived from the original on September 14, 2014. Retrieved September 14, 2014.
  30. ^ a b "12 candidates file papers in RI governor's race". NBC 10 News. June 25, 2014. Retrieved June 26, 2014.
  31. ^ Katherine Gregg (September 15, 2014). "R.I. GOP challenges Healey as Moderate Party's 11th-hour candidate for governor". Providence Journal. Retrieved September 24, 2014.
  32. ^ Nesi, Ted (October 26, 2013). "The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI". WPRI. Archived from the original on October 28, 2013. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  33. ^ "Pension Cuts Cost Democrat Union Support in Rhode Island". Wall Street Journal. October 28, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  34. ^ "Bob Healey spent $0.0005 for every vote he got". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Archived from the original on November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  35. ^ "Healey: It's amazing what $35 can do". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  36. ^ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  37. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  38. ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  39. ^ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  40. ^ Brown University
  41. ^ Kate Fletcher (I) 1%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  42. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  43. ^ Brown University
  44. ^ Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 1%
  45. ^ Fleming & Associates
  46. ^ Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  47. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  48. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  49. ^ Public Opinion Strategies*
  50. ^ Ken Block (I)
  51. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  52. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  53. ^ RI.gov: Election Results

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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