2016 United States Senate election in Idaho

2016 United States Senate election in Idaho
	Crapo: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Sturgill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%; No data
U.S. senator before election; Mike Crapo; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Mike Crapo; Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Idaho was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Idaho, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.

Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo won re-election to a fourth term in office.^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Mike Crapo, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Declined

Russ Fulcher, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2014^[3]^[4]
Raúl Labrador, U.S. Representative^[5]
Mike Simpson, U.S. Representative

Results

Republican primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Crapo (incumbent)	119,633	100.00%
Total votes			119,633	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Jerry Sturgill, businessman^[7]

Declined

Richard H. Stallings, former U.S. Representative, former chairman of the Idaho Democratic Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992^[8]
Larry LaRocco, former U.S. Representative, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006 and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2008^[3]
Walt Minnick, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996^[3]

Results

Democratic primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jerry Sturgill	26,471	100.00%
Total votes			26,471	100.00%

Third Party and Independent Candidates

Constitution Party

Declared

Pro-Life (formerly known as Marvin Richardson), organic strawberry farmer, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate^[9]^[10]^[11]
Ray Writz^[11]

Results

Constitution primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Constitution	Ray J. Writz	131	59.5%
	Constitution	Pro-Life	89	40.5%
Total votes			220	100.0%

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

Timothy Raty, paralegal and 2004 Libertarian State House candidate^[10]^[12]

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Crapo	Sturgill	Link
October 23, 2016	Boise, Idaho	Participant	Participant	^[13]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Crapo (R)	Jerry Sturgill (D)	Ray Writz (C)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[14]	November 1–7, 2016	612	± 4.6%	58%	39%	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[15]	October 31–November 6, 2016	557	± 4.6%	58%	36%	—	—	4%
SurveyMonkey^[16]	October 28–November 3, 2016	498	± 4.6%	61%	35%	—	—	4%
SurveyMonkey^[17]	October 27–November 2, 2016	442	± 4.6%	60%	34%	—	—	6%
SurveyMonkey^[18]	October 26–November 1, 2016	394	± 4.6%	61%	32%	—	—	7%
SurveyMonkey^[19]	October 25–31, 2016	447	± 4.6%	61%	34%	—	—	5%
Emerson College^[20]	October 21–23, 2016	1,023	± 3.0%	57%	24%	—	12%	7%
Dan Jones & Associates^[21]	August 18–31, 2016	602	± 4.0%	57%	20%	4%	4%	15%
Dan Jones & Associates^[22]	July 5–16, 2016	601	± 4.0%	57%	20%	4%	4%	15%
Lake Research Partners^[23]	July 5–10, 2016	500	± 4.4%	37%	35%	2%	—	25%
Dan Jones & Associates^[24]	May 18–June 4, 2016	603	± 4.0%	48%	25%	7%	9%	10%
Dan Jones & Associates^[25]	April 8–19, 2016	603	± 4.0%	53%	17%	5%	5%	20%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[26]	Safe R	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[27]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[28]	Safe R	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[29]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[30]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Results

United States Senate election in Idaho, 2016 ^[31]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Mike Crapo (incumbent)	449,017	66.13%	−5.06%
	Democratic	Jerry Sturgill	188,249	27.73%	+2.80%
	Constitution	Ray J. Writz	41,677	6.14%	+2.26%
Total votes			678,943	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Blaine (largest municipality: Hailey)

By congressional district

Crapo won both congressional districts.^[32]

District	Crapo	Sturgill	Representative
1st	69%	25%	Raúl Labrador
2nd	63%	30%	Mike Simpson

References

^ Russell, Betsy Z. (August 18, 2014). "Crapo says he'll seek another term". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved August 29, 2014.
^ Russell, Betsy Z. (May 12, 2015). "Crapo announces he'll run for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
^ ^a ^b ^c "RRHElections Senate Rankings – April 2015". RRH Elections. April 18, 2015. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
^ Russell, Betsy Z. (June 10, 2015). "Fulcher endorses Crapo for re-election". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
^ Easley, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Labrador won't run for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Official Primary Election Statewide Totals". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved July 20, 2016.
^ "Declaration for 2016" (PDF). Retrieved March 13, 2016.
^ Malloy, Chuck (July 5, 2015). "Democrats Have Issues with Crapo, But No Candidate". Idaho Politics Weekly. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
^ Brown, Nathan (May 13, 2015). "Crapo Announces Re-Election Bid, Campaign Team". Twin Falls Times-News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
^ ^a ^b Brown, Nathan (August 12, 2015). "Federal Lands, Refugees and Regulations Drive Crapo Town Hall in Castleford". Twin Falls Times-News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
^ ^a ^b "Idaho primary: Who's running for county, state, federal office". Idaho Statesman. March 11, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2016.
^ "July Quarterly and Termination Report" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 6, 2015. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
^ Full debate
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ Emerson College
^ Dan Jones & Associates
^ Dan Jones & Associates
^ Lake Research Partners
^ Dan Jones & Associates
^ Dan Jones & Associates
^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ "Nov 08, 2016 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

[1] Russell, Betsy Z. (August 18, 2014). "Crapo says he'll seek another term". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved August 29, 2014.

[2] Russell, Betsy Z. (May 12, 2015). "Crapo announces he'll run for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 29, 2015.

[rrhrankings-3] "RRHElections Senate Rankings – April 2015". RRH Elections. April 18, 2015. Retrieved October 3, 2015.

[4] Russell, Betsy Z. (June 10, 2015). "Fulcher endorses Crapo for re-election". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved October 3, 2015.

[5] Easley, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Labrador won't run for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved February 16, 2015.

[IDOfficialresults-6] "Official Primary Election Statewide Totals". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved July 20, 2016.

[7] "Declaration for 2016" (PDF). Retrieved March 13, 2016.

[8] Malloy, Chuck (July 5, 2015). "Democrats Have Issues with Crapo, But No Candidate". Idaho Politics Weekly. Retrieved October 3, 2015.

[9] Brown, Nathan (May 13, 2015). "Crapo Announces Re-Election Bid, Campaign Team". Twin Falls Times-News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.

[townhall-10] Brown, Nathan (August 12, 2015). "Federal Lands, Refugees and Regulations Drive Crapo Town Hall in Castleford". Twin Falls Times-News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.

[Idaho_Statesman-11] "Idaho primary: Who's running for county, state, federal office". Idaho Statesman. March 11, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2016.

[12] "July Quarterly and Termination Report" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 6, 2015. Retrieved October 7, 2015.

[13] Full debate

[14] SurveyMonkey

[15] SurveyMonkey

[16] SurveyMonkey

[17] SurveyMonkey

[18] SurveyMonkey

[19] SurveyMonkey

[20] Emerson College

[21] Dan Jones & Associates

[22] Dan Jones & Associates

[23] Lake Research Partners

[24] Dan Jones & Associates

[25] Dan Jones & Associates

[26] "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.

[27] "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.

[28] "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.

[29] "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.

[30] "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[generalresults-31] "Nov 08, 2016 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.

[32] "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

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