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2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota

2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota
← 2008 November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04) 2020 →
 
Nominee Mike Rounds Rick Weiland Larry Pressler
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Popular vote 140,741 82,456 47,741
Percentage 50.37% 29.51% 17.09%
Rounds:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Weiland:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Pressler:      30–40%
Tie:      30–40%      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Tim Johnson
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Rounds
Republican

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The 2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of South Dakota, concurrently with the election of the Governor of South Dakota, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Johnson decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fourth term in office. As a result, this was the first open seat election since 1978. With Mike Rounds' election, Republicans held both of South Dakota's Senate seats for the first time since 1987 and gave South Dakota an all-GOP congressional delegation for the first time since 1963.

Businessman Rick Weiland ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans picked former Governor of South Dakota Mike Rounds. Also running were two independent candidates: former Republican U.S. Senator Larry Pressler, who served three terms in the Senate from 1979 to 1997, and former Republican state senator Gordon Howie.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Kevin Artz, businessman[2][3][4]
  • Henry Jo Sinkie, rancher and resort owner[2][5]

Declined

Endorsements

Rick Weiland

Politicians

Organizations

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Brendan
Johnson 		Stephanie Herseth
Sandlin 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] March 18–19, 2013 390 ± 5% 16% 68% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Jarding 		Brendan
Johnson 		Rick
Weiland 		Undecided
Nielson Brothers Polling[22] October 2–6, 2013 282 ± 5.84% 6.6% 30.7% 10.1% 52.7%

Results

Weiland faced no opposition in the Democratic primary.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Stace Nelson
  • Blaine "Chip" Campbell, state representative[35]
  • Gordon Howie, radio host, former State Senator and candidate for Governor in 2010[35]
  • Dan Kaiser, state representative[35]
  • Elizabeth May, state representative[35]
  • Lance Russell, state representative[35]
Larry Rhoden
Mike Rounds

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Annette
Bosworth 		Stace
Nelson 		Larry
Rhoden 		Mike
Rounds 		Undecided
Harper Polling[39] September 4–5, 2013 252 ±6.17% 6% 8% 7% 58% 22%
Nielson Brothers Polling[22] October 2–6, 2013 410 ± 4.84% 2.7% 10.4% 3.9% 46.1% 37%
Public Opinion Strategies[40] April 8–10, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 8% 14% 7% 61% 9%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kristi
Noem 		Mike
Rounds 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] March 18–19, 2013 501 ± 4.4% 39% 43% 17%

Results

Results by county
  Rounds
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Rhoden
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Nelson
  •   40–50%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Rounds 41,377 55.54%
Republican Larry Rhoden 13,593 18.25%
Republican Stace Nelson 13,179 17.69%
Republican Annette Bosworth 4,283 5.75%
Republican Jason Ravnsborg 2,066 2.77%
Total votes 74,490 100.00%

Independents and third parties

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

  • Clayton Walker (Independent), small business consultant and Democratic candidate for state representative in 2010[45][46]

Withdrew

General election

Campaign

Rounds was widely seen as the front runner throughout the campaign.[49] However, he faced ongoing criticism on the election trail for his possible involvement with the State's ongoing EB-5 visa investigation, concerning the conflict of interest that Rounds' administration had when administering the EB-5 program. State officials misused funds to pay for their salaries, did not disclose that they owned companies which they gave contracts to, directed money towards companies that went bankrupt and arranged for loans from unknown sources from shell companies located in tax havens.[50][51][52] In October 2014, Rounds admitted that he had approved a $1 million state loan to meat-packing company Northern Beef shortly after learning that Secretary of Tourism and State Development Richard Benda had agreed to join the company, with Benda then getting another $600,000 in loans that was ultimately used to pay his own salary.[53][54] Benda committed suicide in October 2013, days before a possible indictment over embezzlement and grand theft charges.[55]

Columnist Jonathan Ellis of the Argus Leader called Rounds' fundraising "anemic" compared to the amount of outside money coming into the state on Weiland's side, and criticized the entire Rounds campaign as "more suited for sheriff of Mayberry County than U.S. Senate."[56]

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[57] Lean R (flip) November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[58] Likely R (flip) November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[59] Likely R (flip) November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[60] Likely R (flip) November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rick
Weiland (D) 		Mike
Rounds (R) 		Larry
Pressler (I) 		Gordon
Howie (I) 		Other Undecided
Nielson Brothers Polling[61] June 10–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 27% 54% — — — 19%
Harper Polling[62] September 4–5, 2013 517 ± 4.31% 38% 52% — — — 10%
Nielson Brothers Polling[22] October 2–6, 2013 818 ± 3.43% 35% 50% — — — 15%
Public Policy Polling[63] October 10–13, 2013 882 ± 3.3% 34% 40% — — 11%[64] 15%
Rasmussen Reports[65] February 25–26, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 31% 51% — — 6% 11%
Public Policy Polling^[66] April 30 – May 1, 2014 745 ± 3.6% 28% 38% 15% 4% — 15%
SurveyUSA[67] May 6–10, 2014 504 ± 4.5% 30% 44% 17% 3% 2%[68] 5%
Rasmussen Reports[65] June 4–5, 2014 750 ± 4% 29% 44% 18% — 2% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[69] July 5–24, 2014 631 ± 4.5% 34% 59% — — 3% 5%
Clarity Campaign Labs^[70] July 16–23, 2014 3,837 ± 1.44% 24% 34% 10% 3% — 29%
Nielson Brothers Polling[71] July 23–28, 2014 578 ± 4.04% 30% 43% 14% 4% — 9%
Public Opinion Strategies*[72] August 11–13, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 24% 49% 15% 4% — 7%
Public Policy Polling^[73] August 12–13, 2014 726 ± 3.6% 31% 39% 16% 5% — 9%
Public Policy Polling^[74] August 27–28, 2014 709 ± 3.7% 33% 39% 17% 4% — 7%
42% 45% — — — 13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[75] August 18 – September 2, 2014 526 ± 6% 29% 43% 6% — 1% 21%
SurveyUSA[76] September 3–7, 2014 510 ± 4.4% 28% 39% 25% 3% — 5%
42% 44% — 3% — 11%
ccAdvertising[77] September 22–23, 2014 1,769 ± ? 17% 39% 17% — — 27%
Public Opinion Strategies*[78] September 22–23, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 23% 41% 19% 4% — 12%
Nielson Brothers Polling[79] September 21–25, 2014 647 ± 3.24% 26% 39% 24% 4% — 7%
636 ± 3.27% 37.1% 45% — 7% — 10%
623 ± 3.3% — 40% 39% 8% — 13%
Public Policy Polling^[80] September 29–30, 2014 703 ± 3.7% 28% 35% 24% 8% — 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[81] September 20 – October 1, 2014 382 ± 7% 27% 42% 12% — 1% 17%
SurveyUSA[82] October 1–5, 2014 616 ± 4% 28% 35% 32% 3% — 2%
47% 47% — 3% — 3%
— 39% 54% 3% — 4%
Harper Polling[83] October 9–11, 2014 630 ± 3.9% 33% 37% 23% 5% — 2%
Public Opinion Strategies*[84] October 18–20, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 24% 48% 16% 3% — 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[81] October 16–23, 2014 527 ± 8% 25% 38% 17% — 0% 21%
NBC News/Marist[85] October 19–23, 2014 730 LV ± 3.6% 29% 43% 16% 3% <1% 7%
990 RV ± 3.1% 28% 43% 16% 4% <1% 9%
Mason-Dixon[86] October 20–23, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 33% 42% 13% 2% — 10%
SurveyUSA[87] October 21–26, 2014 611 ± 4% 32% 43% 19% 2% — 4%
Rasmussen Reports[65] October 22–26, 2014 908 ± 3.5% 31% 45% 21% — — 3%
Monmouth University[88] October 24–27, 2014 429 ± 4.7% 31% 45% 19% 1% — 4%
40% 48% — 1% — 11%
Hypothetical polling

With Herseth Sandlin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Stephanie Herseth
Sandlin (D) 		Kristi
Noem (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] March 18–19, 2013 1,069 ± 3% 48% 47% — 5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Stephanie Herseth
Sandlin (D) 		Mike
Rounds (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] March 18–19, 2013 1,069 ± 3% 44% 49% — 7%

With B. Johnson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Brendan
Johnson (D) 		Kristi
Noem (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] March 18–19, 2013 1,069 ± 3% 37% 49% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Brendan
Johnson (D) 		Mike
Rounds (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] March 18–19, 2013 1,069 ± 3% 32% 53% — 15%

With T. Johnson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Johnson (D) 		Kristi
Noem (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] March 18–19, 2013 1,069 ± 3% 45% 49% — 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Johnson (D) 		Mike
Rounds (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] March 18–19, 2013 1,069 ± 3% 41% 52% — 7%

With Weiland

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rick
Weiland (D) 		Annette
Bosworth (R) 		Other Undecided
Harper Polling[89] September 4–5, 2013 517 ± 4.31% 38% 36% — 26%
Nielson Brothers Polling[22] October 2–6, 2013 815 ± 3.43% 38% 33% — 30%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rick
Weiland (D) 		Stace
Nelson (R) 		Other Undecided
Harper Polling[90] September 4–5, 2013 517 ± 4.31% 38% 40% — 22%
Nielson Brothers Polling[22] October 2–6, 2013 815 ± 3.43% 36% 35% — 30%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rick
Weiland (D) 		Larry
Rhoden (R) 		Other Undecided
Harper Polling[91] September 4–5, 2013 517 ± 4.31% 35% 41% — 23%
Nielson Brothers Polling[22] October 2–6, 2013 815 ± 3.43% 37% 32% — 31%
  • * Internal polling for the Mike Rounds campaign
  • ^ Internal polling for the Rick Weiland campaign

Results

United States Senate election in South Dakota, 2014[92]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Rounds 140,741 50.37% +12.86%
Democratic Rick Weiland 82,456 29.51% −32.98%
Independent Larry Pressler 47,741 17.09% N/A
Independent Gordon Howie 8,474 3.03% N/A
Total votes 279,412 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Maps

  • Support for Howie by county:   >10%   7–8%   6–7%   5–6%   4–5%   3–4%   2–3%   1–2%   <1%
    Support for Howie by county:
      >10%
      7–8%
      6–7%
      5–6%
      4–5%
      3–4%
      2–3%
      1–2%
      <1%

See also

References

  1. ^ "Update: Rick Weiland's Senate run draws support from Daschle, others". Argus Leader. May 8, 2013. Retrieved May 9, 2013.[permanent dead link]
  2. ^ a b c "Field for South Dakota US Senate seat set". CTPost. March 26, 2014. Retrieved March 26, 2014.[permanent dead link]
  3. ^ Wynn, Kimberly (February 14, 2014). "Resident set to run for Democratic nomination for Senate". Aberdeen News. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  4. ^ "2nd Democrat Joins Senate Race". WNAX (AM). February 14, 2014. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  5. ^ Heidelberger, Cory (February 3, 2014). "Democrat Henry Sinkie Seeking Democratic Nomination for U.S. Senate". Madville Times. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  6. ^ "Frerichs' political future". Political Smokeout. May 29, 2013. Retrieved July 9, 2013.
  7. ^ "Current Candidates for Primary Election" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 25, 2014. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  8. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 13, 2013). "Stephanie Herseth Sandlin Not Running for Senate". Roll Call. Archived from the original on June 9, 2013. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  9. ^ Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won't run in South Dakota - James Hohmann - POLITICO.com
  10. ^ Carnia, Catalina (March 25, 2013). "Report: Democratic Sen. Johnson to retire". USA Today. Retrieved March 25, 2013.
  11. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (May 22, 2013). "Will Pat O'Brien Enter South Dakota's US Senate Race?". Smart Politics. Retrieved May 25, 2013.
  12. ^ Montgomery, David (September 23, 2013). "Volesky confirms interest in Senate race". Political Smokeout. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  13. ^ "Volesky decides against entering U.S. Senate race". Plainsman. March 1, 2014. Archived from the original on November 5, 2014. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  14. ^ a b c d Montgomery, David (August 12, 2013). "In bid for Senate seat, Rick Weiland shrugs off national doubters". Argus Leader. Retrieved August 13, 2013.[permanent dead link]
  15. ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (May 14, 2013). "Tom Daschle backs Weiland for South Dakota Senate". The Hill. Retrieved July 10, 2013.
  16. ^ Huey-Burns, Caitlin (June 30, 2014). "Warren Stumps for Dems Where Obama Dare Not Go". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 30, 2014.
  17. ^ Montgomery, David (September 17, 2013). "Weiland endorsed by anti-nukes group". Political Smokeout. Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  18. ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (March 11, 2014). "Progressive group endorses in Maine, South Dakota". The Hill. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  19. ^ Simmons-Ritchie, Daniel (June 12, 2013). "Tribal leaders endorse Rick Weiland's Senate bid". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved July 10, 2013.
  20. ^ "Steelworkers Endorse Rick Weiland for U.S. Senate". PR Newswire. October 15, 2013. Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  21. ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
  22. ^ a b c d e f Nielson Brothers Polling
  23. ^ Heidelberger, Cory Allen (June 4, 2013). "Wanted: Communications Coordinator for Bosworth Senate Campaign". Madville Times. Retrieved June 7, 2013.
  24. ^ Montgomery, David (June 10, 2013). "Bosworth says she represents new generation for Senate". Political Smokeout. Retrieved June 16, 2013.
  25. ^ "Stace Nelson to announce run for U.S. Senate". Argus Leader. August 13, 2013. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013. Retrieved August 13, 2013.
  26. ^ "Army reservist to run for U.S. Senate". Argus Leader. December 16, 2013. Retrieved December 30, 2013.[permanent dead link]
  27. ^ Montgomery, David (July 9, 2013). "Legislative leader Larry Rhoden to challenge Mike Rounds". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 9, 2013.[permanent dead link]
  28. ^ Woster, Kevin (October 30, 2011). "WOSTER: Rounds keeps eye on 2014". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved September 15, 2012.
  29. ^ Brokaw, Chet (November 29, 2012). "Former SD Gov. Rounds announces run for US Senate". The American News. Archived from the original on February 25, 2013. Retrieved November 29, 2012.
  30. ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (March 28, 2013). "Former SD lieutenant governor considering run for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved March 30, 2013.
  31. ^ Heidelberger, Cory (June 11, 2013). "Noem Not the Anti-Rounds Candidate; Opportunity Knocks, Rep. Nelson…". Madville Times. Retrieved December 13, 2013.
  32. ^ Montgomery, David (May 23, 2013). "Some conservative groups down on Noem as Rounds challenger". Political Smokeout. Retrieved June 16, 2013.
  33. ^ Camia, Catalina (June 11, 2013). "Rep. Kristi Noem passes on S.D. Senate race". USA Today.
  34. ^ "Once again, Former State Rep. Mark Venner is out of the US Senate Race". South Dakota War College. November 26, 2013. Archived from the original on December 14, 2013. Retrieved December 13, 2013.
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  36. ^ a b Powers, Pat (February 8, 2014). "Larry Rhoden Endorsed by Red State as Their Preferred Conservative in the US Senate Race". South Dakota War College. Archived from the original on February 22, 2014. Retrieved February 11, 2014.
  37. ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (May 3, 2013). "Huckabee endorses Rounds for South Dakota Senate". The Hill. Retrieved July 10, 2013.
  38. ^ "Thune offers Rounds support in Senate bid | The Argus Leader | argusleader.com". Archived from the original on September 10, 2013. Retrieved September 10, 2013.
  39. ^ Harper Polling Archived February 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  40. ^ Public Opinion Strategies
  41. ^ "Primary Election - June 3, 2014". South Dakota Secretary of State. June 4, 2014. Retrieved June 5, 2014.
  42. ^ Gordon Howie (April 3, 2014). "Ensuring a Choice for South Dakota Conservatives". American Clarion. Archived from the original on April 7, 2014. Retrieved April 4, 2014.
  43. ^ Eagle, Karen (November 7, 2013). "Former SD senator explores run as Independent for US office". Native Sun News. Native American Times. Retrieved November 9, 2013.
  44. ^ Sullivan, Sean. "Ex-senator Pressler announces independent bid in South Dakota". Washington Post. Retrieved December 27, 2013.
  45. ^ "Black Hawk man seeks run for U.S. Senate". Rapid City Journal. May 1, 2014. Retrieved May 7, 2014.
  46. ^ Uecker, Toby (May 20, 2014). "Successful Walker Challenge: Affidavit Cites Misregistered, Unregistered, Fictitious Voters". Madville Times. Retrieved June 5, 2014.
  47. ^ Montgomery, David (September 14, 2013). "Libertarian Evans to run for U.S. Senate in 2014". Argus Leader. Retrieved November 9, 2013.
  48. ^ Rookhuyzen, David (December 19, 2013). "Libertarian Kurt Evans ends Senate run". Capital Journal. Retrieved February 11, 2014.
  49. ^ Montgomery, David (November 30, 2013). "GOP Senate challengers want Rounds at debates". Argus Leader. Retrieved December 19, 2013.[permanent dead link]
  50. ^ "What you need to know about EB-5 in South Dakota". Argus Leader. October 8, 2014. Retrieved October 13, 2014.
  51. ^ "This immigration scandal drove a state official to suicide — and could give Dems the Senate". Vox. Vox Media. October 10, 2014. Retrieved October 13, 2014.
  52. ^ "State EB-5 director signed deal with own company". Argus Leader. September 23, 2014. Retrieved October 13, 2014.
  53. ^ "Rounds knew of Benda conflict in final days of term". Argus Leader. October 22, 2014. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  54. ^ "$550,000 from Northern Beef grant was used to pay Benda for two years". Capital Journal. December 13, 2013. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  55. ^ "AG: Benda Suicide Came Days Prior To Possible Indictment". Keloland. July 29, 2014. Archived from the original on October 23, 2014. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  56. ^ "Ellis: Why it's a close race for Senate". Argus Leader. October 13, 2014. Retrieved October 13, 2014.
  57. ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  58. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  59. ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  60. ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  61. ^ Nielson Brothers Polling
  62. ^ Harper Polling Archived June 6, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  63. ^ Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ Kurt Evans (L) 11%
  65. ^ a b c Rasmussen Reports
  66. ^ Public Policy Polling^
  67. ^ SurveyUSA
  68. ^ Clayton Walker (I) 2%
  69. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  70. ^ Clarity Campaign Labs^
  71. ^ Nielson Brothers Polling [permanent dead link]
  72. ^ Public Opinion Strategies*
  73. ^ Public Policy Polling^
  74. ^ Public Policy Polling^
  75. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  76. ^ SurveyUSA
  77. ^ ccAdvertising
  78. ^ Public Opinion Strategies*
  79. ^ Nielson Brothers Polling
  80. ^ Public Policy Polling^
  81. ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  82. ^ SurveyUSA
  83. ^ Harper Polling
  84. ^ Public Opinion Strategies*
  85. ^ NBC News/Marist
  86. ^ Mason-Dixon
  87. ^ SurveyUSA
  88. ^ Monmouth University
  89. ^ Harper Polling Archived June 6, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  90. ^ Harper Polling Archived June 6, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  91. ^ Harper Polling Archived June 6, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  92. ^ 2014 General State Canvass

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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